Horizon scanning - Kolba cafe

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Information about Horizon scanning - Kolba cafe
Business & Mgmt

Published on February 16, 2014

Author: Lurglomond



The slides from a recent workshop on horizon scanning hosted by Kolba.

Source: Nesta

1. Research and analysis - Micro-narratives - Ethnography - Big data: smoke signals - Evidence mapping - Horizon scanning - Market intelligence - Systems mapping - Service safaris 7. Systemic impact - Changing behaviour - Changing laws and regulations - Calibrating markets - Understanding interaction of technologies 2. Ideation and fostering creative thinking - Crowdsourcing - Challenges - Design tools - Creativity methods - Open innovation 6. Scale-up - Organisational growth - Spreading ideas - Transferring practice - Legislation - Licensing - Franchising 3. Experiment - Rapid prototyping - Service and process design - User-design - Co-design - Behavioural insights - Light-touch evaluation - Randomised Control Trials - Cost-benefit modelling 4. Business case development - Market sizing and validation - Business case analysis - Independent replication of evaluation 5. Replication of impact - Policy design - Programme design - Business modelling - Organisational design Source: Nesta

Bi-weekly meeting cafe

“The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed” - W. Gibson

Horizon Scanning Scan and Investigate Action Connect Sensemake Source: @stugreulich

Development Impact Bonds • You have five minutes to find a definition and three experts… • In a Development Impact Bond, investors provide finance for social interventions in developing countries. The money is channeled to local public and private service providers. Once independently verified evidence shows that results have been achieved, the government and donors repay the investors their principal plus a financial return linked to performance. •

Horizon Scanning Scan and Investigate Action Connect Sensemake Source: @stugreulich

Horizon Scanning • Quiz time: how quickly can you find… • Think structure: - Web searches - Social media - Magazines and journals - Webinars - Academics - Roadmaps - Pyramiding • Lots of data available, but… • Speak to people, go see for yourself, try it… • Find dissonant voices as well as mainstream • Follow up, re-connect, feed your network Source: @stugreulich

Promises & Challenges of Foresight PROMISES • Creates Anticipatory Awareness • Challenges organisations and management to think • Drives innovation, entrepreneurship, social change • Good strategy for dealing with uncertainty • • • • • CHALLENGES Too theoretical & abstract Always methodologically constrained Disconnected from real politik Disconnected from operations People and organisations are educated to demand certainty? Source: @stugreulich


Next time… RCTs Don’t forget to bring some ideas of your own…

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