Heating and cooling revolution

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Information about Heating and cooling revolution
Technology

Published on October 21, 2014

Author: BSRIA

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Andrew Giles goes through the drivers of the Heating and Cooling market as well as the value. Andrew also gives examples of the technology available including hybrid heat pumps and solar thermal

1. Heating and cooling revolution By Andrew Giles October 2014

2. 2 Excellence in Market Intelligence Heating and Cooling Markets Agenda •Global HVAC market and the rise of China •Western & Eastern Europe heating market trends in short term •ErP in September 2015, the great divorce of condensing boilers, rise in hybrids and solar •Heat pumps – China versus Europe and the top growing product types •2020 & 2035 market for heat generators and new technologies •Traditional water heating losing to combination boilers and other sanitary hot water solutions •Top manufactures – making acquisitions and positioning in the HVAC markets /market share 2

3. 3 Excellence in Market Intelligence Global Major Regions HVAC Market Value Europe analysis based on following countries: Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK Total 2013 market value: €100bn NAmerica €22.7bln China €39.0bln Japan €14.0bn Europe €25.9bln

4. 4 Excellence in Market Intelligence China domestic boilers leaps to top spot 4 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 UK South Korea China Russia Number of of boilers sold per annum

5. 5 Excellence in Market Intelligence ErP - Impact on products Increase in Combined and Hybrid systems Eco Design A +++ ≥150% A ++ ≥125% A + ≥98% A ≥90% B ≥82% C ≥75% D ≥36% E ≥34% Cogeneration Gas HP Condensing boilers Non- condensing boilers Ground /Water to water HP Air to water HP From 26/9/2015 products with Label D to G are no longer allowed to be sold Hybrid Heat Pumps Combined CB + ST system + enhanced Controls Fuel cell Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015 5

6. 6 Excellence in Market Intelligence Combining systems Product label High efficiency gas boiler Solar thermal system (VT) Temperature controls System label example: 89% 6% 4% + + System efficiency 99% A + ≥98% System label Separate labelling for Space Heating and SHW. 6

7. 7 Excellence in Market Intelligence 12% 15% 88% 85% - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2012 2017 condensing non-condensing Boiler technology shift Domestic gas and oil boiler sales 2012 - 2017 Outside the EU market Inside the EU market ‘000 units ‘000 units 70% 92% 30% 8% - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2012 2017 condensing non-condensing Source: BSRIA, based on the analysis of 9 largest European markets Source: BSRIA, based on the analysis of Turkey, Russia, China, S. Korea 7

8. 8 Excellence in Market Intelligence Hybrid heat pumps Market potential by 2020 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 France Germany Italy UK Netherlands units CAGR 2014-2020 +51.7% Hybrid Box Gas cond. boiler & A/W monobloc HP Modulo Hybrido Gas cond. boiler & A/W split HP 8

9. 9 Excellence in Market Intelligence 53,400 5,042 1,973 1,547 831 2,595 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 China Europe Turkey Brazil India Other countries Solar Thermal Market World market * 29 countries Total world* market: 65.4 million m2 in 2014e (+7%) •~ +7% growth in 2014 •~ 82% of world market ‘000 m2 2012 2013 2014 9

10. 10 Excellence in Market Intelligence Heat Pump Market China - 2013 Total market estimated at 1 million units in 2013: (+ 15%) units 12.0% 5.0% 20.0% 17.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 Ground / Water to Water Splits Monoblocks DHW Heat pumps 2014 Growth 2014 10

11. 11 Excellence in Market Intelligence Heat Pump Market Europe* – ground/water/air-to-water Ground/Water-to-Water ~110,600 in 2014 (+4.3%) *Includes 21 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia Air-to-Water ~196,500 in 2014 (+7%) units units -3.1% 2.8% -6.0% 3.1% 4.3% 5.6% 6.3% 6.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Ground/ water to water Growth -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Splits Monoblocs Growth splits Growth monoblocs 11

12. 12 Excellence in Market Intelligence *Includes 21 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia Cylinder Integrated Water Heaters Heat Pumps ~111,000 in 2013 (+15.7%) Heat Pump Market Europe* – Cylinder integrated units 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Air to water –cylinder-integrated water heater HP Growth 12

13. 13 Excellence in Market Intelligence 2020 European heating market Top 6 Heating market by volume of sales, 2012 – 2020 – wall hung condensing, wall hung non-condensing , floor standing, biomass, solar thermal & heat pump 13 ‘000 units - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 UK Italy France Germany Spain Netherlands HP ST Biomass FS WH non-cond. WH cond.

14. 14 Excellence in Market Intelligence Renewables sales curve until 2035 Powerful drivers for new technologies after 2020 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 2012 2015 2020 2030 2035 Heat Pumps Hybrid HP ST systems micro CHP Fuel Cells Units 14

15. 15 Excellence in Market Intelligence Water heater market declining 15 3,600 3,800 4,000 4,200 4,400 4,600 4,800 5,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Thousand units Electric storage Air-water cylinder heat pump Solar thermal residential system Electric storage Air-water Cylinder integrated heat pump Rise of combination boilers means less market for traditional electric storage

16. 16 Excellence in Market Intelligence JCI Midea Acquisition speed 16 Diversification degree Degree of diversification appreciated outside of the core HVAC business Acquisition speed analysed over the last five years, based on company literature and industry sources Low Low High High Acquisition speed AO Smith Ariston BDR Thermea Bosch Daikin Dimplex Ferroli Gree Haier Hitachi LG Mitsubishi Electric Panasonic Riello Toshiba Carrier Trane Vaillant Viessmann

17. 17 Excellence in Market Intelligence European Analysis 17 European Market Shares by value in Heating, AC and Renewables of Top 20 Companies, 2012 0.1% 4.3% 8.6% 10.3% 0.2% 0.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% 10.2% 4.4% 14.2% 0.6% 0.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.6% 1.6% 8.1% 3.0% 0.0% 3.5% 2.2% 0.4% 1.3% 2.1% 8.8% 5.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 4.0% 6.4% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% European MS in Heating European MS in AC European MS in Renewables

18. 18 Excellence in Market Intelligence THANK YOU 18

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