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Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 2 09

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Information about Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 2 09
Real Estate

Published on February 11, 2009

Author: LaneBailey

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Gwinnett County, GA real estate market report for February 2009
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Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report February December 08 – January 09

December Numbers - Updated 1291 New Listings 503 Sold Listings 520 Listings Pending Average 93 Days on Market for Sold Listings

1291 New Listings

503 Sold Listings

520 Listings Pending

Average 93 Days on Market for Sold Listings

December Numbers - Final *Listings Pending may have closed in November, may have closed in December, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.

*Listings Pending may have closed in November, may have closed in December, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.

January Numbers - Preliminary 1881 New Listings 305 Sold Listings 564 Listings Pending Average 101 Days on Market for Sold Listings

1881 New Listings

305 Sold Listings

564 Listings Pending

Average 101 Days on Market for Sold Listings

January Numbers - Preliminary *While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 475 closed sales for January.

*While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 475 closed sales for January.

Days on Market (DoM)

Conclusions Final for December is 93. I was looking for the under 90… preliminary was 89 days. 93 wasn’t great, For January, preliminary is 101. I would really like to see numbers stay under 90 into February.

Final for December is 93.

I was looking for the under 90… preliminary was 89 days. 93 wasn’t great,

For January, preliminary is 101.

I would really like to see numbers stay under 90 into February.

New, Pending & Sold Listings

December Absorption Rates 7700 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. 12 month average: 13.0 months inventory 6 month average: 13.1 months inventory 3 month average: 15.9 months inventory

7700 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.

12 month average: 13.0 months inventory

6 month average: 13.1 months inventory

3 month average: 15.9 months inventory

January Absorption Rates 7718 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Dec., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. 12 month average: 13.2 months inventory 6 month average: 14.9 months inventory 3 month average: 19.6 months inventory

7718 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Dec., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.

12 month average: 13.2 months inventory

6 month average: 14.9 months inventory

3 month average: 19.6 months inventory

Conclusions Dec. final numbers showed sales down 12% from 2007. Also important, 7.9% more homes Closed in Dec than went under contract in Nov. The question would be whether these are sales that would have closed in Nov or Jan. December final numbers ended up with a reasonably strong showing compared to preliminaries. There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced. No matter how you slice it we are 2-3 times that.

Dec. final numbers showed sales down 12% from 2007. Also important, 7.9% more homes Closed in Dec than went under contract in Nov. The question would be whether these are sales that would have closed in Nov or Jan.

December final numbers ended up with a reasonably strong showing compared to preliminaries.

There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced. No matter how you slice it we are 2-3 times that.

New/Sold Ratio This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.

This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.

New/Sold Ratio In Dec., 39% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 10 homes that were put up for sale, 4 sold. I thought we would get to 30%. In Jan., early numbers point to 16% (1:6), and I only expect to see that upgrade to 25% for the final numbers.

In Dec., 39% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 10 homes that were put up for sale, 4 sold. I thought we would get to 30%.

In Jan., early numbers point to 16% (1:6), and I only expect to see that upgrade to 25% for the final numbers.

New/Sold Ratio

Conclusion The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers. This number tops around 67% Anything under 33% is very weak. I expect there to be a seasonal “pop” for Dec. and a fizzle for January.

The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers.

This number tops around 67%

Anything under 33% is very weak.

I expect there to be a seasonal “pop” for Dec. and a fizzle for January.

Average Sales Price Dec. - $206,741 Down 14.6% from December 2007 Jan. - $178,590 Down 20.2% from January 2008 The Sept. numbers showed an average under $200k for the first time since I started keeping track in January 2005, but it has bounced back… until January. We’ll have to see the finals.

Dec. - $206,741 Down 14.6% from December 2007

Jan. - $178,590 Down 20.2% from January 2008

The Sept. numbers showed an average under $200k for the first time since I started keeping track in January 2005, but it has bounced back… until January. We’ll have to see the finals.

Average Sales Price Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges. This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.

Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges.

This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.

List Price/Sales Price Ratio December – 93.02% January – 93.80% Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List. We’ve been under 96% since June ’08. Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market, but it does show “Seller Capitulation.”

December – 93.02%

January – 93.80%

Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List. We’ve been under 96% since June ’08.

Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market, but it does show “Seller Capitulation.”

Conclusion List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength. It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing. The indications are also very general.

List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength.

It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing.

The indications are also very general.

Overall Conclusion Right now my big concern is “Pendings Failures”. They have been running 3-4 times what it was just a few months ago (except December). Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but I think we might just skip along the bottom for a few months.

Right now my big concern is “Pendings Failures”. They have been running 3-4 times what it was just a few months ago (except December).

Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but I think we might just skip along the bottom for a few months.

Overall Conclusions September being up in sales was important, but not conclusive. It was against a weak month last year. I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. We might be on the bottom, but can’t really know that until next spring. There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals. Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.

September being up in sales was important, but not conclusive. It was against a weak month last year.

I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. We might be on the bottom, but can’t really know that until next spring.

There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals.

Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.

Overall Conclusions I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis. I really want to see more of the Pending Sales make it to the closing table. March-May will be pivotal in the Atlanta area market. Spring is the strong season. I still think that if we aren’t AT the bottom, we can see it from here.

I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis.

I really want to see more of the Pending Sales make it to the closing table.

March-May will be pivotal in the Atlanta area market. Spring is the strong season.

I still think that if we aren’t AT the bottom, we can see it from here.

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