Published on February 20, 2014
Green growth in developing countries – lessons from 11 country dialogues Steve Bass 20 name Steve Bass AuthorFebruary 2014 04-12-2013 Date ENVIRONET Workshop, Paris 20th February 2014: Green Growth, Development Planning and Policy Steve Bass, IIED CLIMATE RESILIENCE AND GREEN ECONOMY 1
In-country multi-stakeholder dialogues1 on green economy Steve Bass 20 February 2014 Objectives: To explore green economy/growth opportunities, threats and conditions in developing countries To use the findings to improve stakeholder interaction and GE guidance at national and international levels 1 Hosted jointly by Finance and Environment Ministries. Facilitated by IIED. Supported variously by OECD, DFID (accountable grant to IIED), UNDP CLIMATE RESILIENCE AND GREEN ECONOMY 2
Increasing country activity on GE Steve Bass 20 February 2014 • 2008 finance crisis kicked off – 15% ‘green stimulus’ • 300+ green economy plans, policies, practices and projects registered since Rio 2012 on www.uncsd2012.org CLIMATE RESILIENCE AND GREEN ECONOMY 3
IIED/GEC developing country dialogues Global (Wilton Park 2014) Mali (w GECoalition) Caribbean region (w CANARI) Cambodia (w OECD) Amapa state, Brazil CLIMATE RESILIENCE AND GREEN ECONOMY Kazakhstan (w OSCE) Himalaya region Ethiopia (w OECD) Brazil (w GECoalition) Steve Bass 20 February 2014 Zambia (w OECD, AfDB) India (w GECoalition) Botswana (w UNDP) 4
Dialogue questions: 1. Econ outlook for people/envt? 2. What desirable GE outcomes? 3. Are they being achieved? • • • • Steve Bass 20 February 2014 reflected in politics and policy? institutional foundations in place? activities, finance, technology delivering? stakeholders for and against? 4. How supportive are international GE initiatives of national vision? CLIMATE RESILIENCE AND GREEN ECONOMY 5
Dialogue results: reasons for GE/GG Steve Bass 20 February 2014 1. High potential from green assets: growth, jobs, resilience 2. Failed economic models: • Growth is not serving wellbeing (8 of 12 high-growth countries have declining HDI, increasing inequality) • Current growth models create climate/econ vulnerability 3. Asymmetries in power, information & incentives: • Entrench the brown economy – it’s now being revived! • Entrench poverty and jobless growth • Neglect or degrade the assets of the poor (India: ecosystem services = 57% ‘GDP of Poor’) CLIMATE RESILIENCE AND GREEN ECONOMY 6
Dialogue results: GE outcomes that resonate with national/personal visions 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Steve Bass 20 February 2014 Human wellbeing – decent jobs, livelihoods, watsan… Equity – in decisions, economic activity, cost/benefit Natural capital – growing and producing value Planetary boundaries – understood and not exceeded Resilience – built in natural and human systems Econ growth – in places and ways that deliver above GE will only go mainstream when it is clear how it works at a human (personal and community) level 1-6 can be used as test of GE initiatives CLIMATE RESILIENCE AND GREEN ECONOMY 7
Dialogue results: national visions for GE Steve Bass 20 February 2014 GG is driven by country vision, and what works locally – not one international model • GHG abatement analysis and international climate funds are helpful, but insufficient (Eth, Cam, KZ) • Value of assessing GE contributions by key national players like corporations (stakeholder reporting) GG must be inclusive – even if Min Finance and big co’s kick off ‘green growth’ • SMMEs/informal economy can create new jobs at $100k/1KW – not $1M/100KW (India) • ‘Green’ can be dangerous without social justice: international ‘greening’ demands compliance with high formal standards, narrows the supply base. Inequality a WEF major risk 2014 GG results from multi-stakeholder processes over time – not just a one-off plan • GE politics; GE Accord between gov’t, business and NGOs (SA); GE action learning group (Caribbean) GG must be based on environmental assets – not just climate hazards • Biodiversity, NR value chains, country green product branding, climate resilience (Brazil) GG is investment-heavy – to counteract capital misallocation into the brown economy • Screen technologies – 70% of NR/energy productivity options have IRRs 10+% (McKinsey) Capacity and governance are essential GE foundations – not just green investment projects • 1 Integration mechanisms, 2 government expenditure, 3 green incentives… CLIMATE RESILIENCE AND GREEN ECONOMY 8
Dialogue results: national GE foundations Steve Bass 20 February 2014 1. Integration mechanisms: • Multi-stakeholder forum (‘old’ SD Councils – ‘new’ GE accords) • Strategic environmental and social assessment (SEA/SESA) • Natural capital accounting (SEEA+) • New ecol/social metrics (GDP+; triple-bottom-line reporting) 2. Government expenditure: • Public environmental expenditure review • Sustainable public procurement 3. Green incentives: • Fiscal: resource pricing/taxation, subsidy reform, green funds • ‘Catalogue’ of local green activities/potentials • ‘Quality’ investment code Some of these GE ‘foundations’ will already exist – identify them CLIMATE RESILIENCE AND GREEN ECONOMY 9
International initiatives: new niches + new players Steve Bass 20 February 2014 GGGI: Support to many developing countries for ‘rigorous GG economic development strategies’ (technology screening) UN-PAGE: UNEP, ILO, UNIDO, UNITAR supporting 30 countries over 7 years: a suite of services to governments to build national GE strategies UNIDO: Green Industry Platform to mobilize action by industrial players WEF: GG Action Alliance – 50 financial institutions/corporations to help gov’ts adopt systematic approach to attracting finance to green sectors. WB: Three-pronged programme: 1. support national strategies; 2. Value natural capital (WAVES); 3. support upfront capital needs AfDB: GG Initiative has mixed support: knowledge products, build capacity, support pilot countries; Africa50Fund OECD: Comprehensive knowledge support: documenting GG indicators, capturing national experience, improving PS involvement and role of aid Some collaboration – GEC, GGKP, as well as PAGE CLIMATE RESILIENCE AND GREEN ECONOMY 10
Evolving international GE architecture Steve Bass 20 February 2014 NB illustrative only – not the result of detailed analysis! CLIMATE RESILIENCE AND GREEN ECONOMY 11
International GG/GE – quick assessment Steve Bass 20 February 2014 + Increasingly active in developing countries + Potential to drive SD, attracting mainstream players / $ – But don’t tackle power/information/incentive asymmetries: • Biased to elites, formal economy, central government; they do little at local level, in the informal economy, with the poor directly • Focus on GHG abatement and C assets – not all 9 planetary boundaries, or wider range of natural assets of poor • Focus on boosting growth, rather than economic reform • Ignore management of global public goods and risks GE will only go mainstream when it can articulate better lives for people CLIMATE RESILIENCE AND GREEN ECONOMY 12
Suggestions for ENVIRONET work 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Steve Bass 20 February 2014 Improve interaction: between stakeholders / world views; and between GE initiatives (national, GEC, OECD, GGKP, PAGE) Real drivers of change: focus on both mainstream (MinFin, business) and local (informal economy, municipalities, SMEs) Social justice: seek social safeguards and synergies in greening Doubly green: green assets and risks beyond GHG abatement (NRM, biodiversity, climate resilience) Finance reform: quality investment (not just climate $); build green asset classes (not just C); streamline green permissions Critical capacity: up-scale Environet’s good SEA/NSDS work Economic transformation: need ‘evolution’ of complex adaptive economies – therefore trials, selection, scale up and speed up Global GE: need to manage GPGs and risks – not just national. Trade/finance reform, tax cooperation, etc – not just aid CLIMATE RESILIENCE AND GREEN ECONOMY 13
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