Global Trajectory

43 %
57 %
Information about Global Trajectory
Education

Published on January 18, 2008

Author: jim.fournier

Source: slideshare.net

Description

You can stream a 38 min audio of the talk here:
http://www.planetwork.net/jim/GlobalTrajectory.mp3
edited down from the full TPN presentation on Jan 14, 2008

Jim Fournier January 14, 2008 The Global Trajectory?

Too Many Big Ideas – in 38 min This slide was cut in the audio edit. Click after you read this, and again after slide 2. Then listen for the mouse clicks on the audio. The mouse is faint on slide 4, so just change when you feel ready, but you have more time than you think, so remember to breathe. From slide 7 the number is named in the audio.

This slide was cut in the audio edit.

Click after you read this, and again after slide 2.

Then listen for the mouse clicks on the audio.

The mouse is faint on slide 4, so just change when you feel ready, but you have more time than you think, so remember to breathe.

From slide 7 the number is named in the audio.

A new meta-narrative, an attempt to radically reframe the story that we tell ourselves about reality.

A Synthesis of Two Apparently Contradictory World Views We are on a Collision Course with Global Catastrophe (Limits to Growth) The Market & Technology will solve everything (The Market is God)

We are on a Collision Course with Global Catastrophe (Limits to Growth)

The Market & Technology will solve everything (The Market is God)

In Most Arguments Both Sides Are Right in What They Affirm and Wrong in What They Deny John Stuart Mill

The Global Trajectory?

Planetary Crises; Evolutionary Drivers: Population Peak Oil Global Warming Resource Exhaustion Economic Turmoil

Population

Peak Oil

Global Warming

Resource Exhaustion

Economic Turmoil

Long-Term Population Growth Global Population: Milestones, Hopes, and Concerns Vaclav Smil, PhD http://www.ippnw.org/MGS/V5N2Smil.html

Peak Population? http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/GW/data/global/ciesin-sres/

Population S-Curve http://www.gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/summer95/fig1.html

Population J-Curve? http://www.beyondpeak.com/scenarios/stanton3.gif

Peak Oil http://www.peakoil.org

The Green Party View

Global Energy Use Per Person Has Actually Stopped Growing http://www.esru.strath.ac.uk/EandE/Web_sites/03-04/biomass/ background%20info.html

But the Population has Not, and thus CO 2 is Still Growing http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/publications/ap2000/Action_Plan_2000.htm

1000 years of Atmospheric CO 2 level and Temperature http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/millenniumCO2.htm

CO 2 , Methane and Temperature over the last 160,000 years http://www.iitap.iastate.edu/gccourse/chem/gases/images/meth_temp.gif

Actual Arctic Sea Ice http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/seaice.shtml

Overall Consumption Is Still Growing http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/kerr_02.htm Natural Resources

Ecological Footprints Combine Many Factors, But We Should Focus More on Key Biological Resources: Forests Fisheries Farmland Fresh Water

Forests

Fisheries

Farmland

Fresh Water

All Represent Absolute Limits to Population http://www.millenniuminstitute.net/publications/images/G2R.html_img_10.jpg

All Put Biodiversity At Risk http://www.biodiversityhotspots.org/xp/Hotspots

Global Economic Instability Debt-based Monetary System “ Faith-based” Fiat Money 98% of Wealth Held by Less Than 2% of Population 95% of Global Economic Activity Is Speculative Whole Regions of the World in Chronic Debt Crisis

Debt-based Monetary System

“ Faith-based” Fiat Money

98% of Wealth Held by Less Than 2% of Population

95% of Global Economic Activity Is Speculative

Whole Regions of the World in Chronic Debt Crisis

What Are We to Make of the Current Global Situation? http://www.maa.org/devlin/GordianKnot.jpg

One Biological Metaphor Is Cancer

If we do not curtail our destruction of the biosphere, and halt our population growth very soon, not only will we face a die-off of most of the human population, we will foreclose the possibility of a viable world for all future generations.

Will Humanity Turn Out to Be Like a Colony of Mold in a Petri Dish?

Or Like An Embryo

Using The White of the Egg to Grow

A New Form of Complexity? © James L. Fournier

Virtually all cultures have some tradition wherein it is understood that for an individual to arrive at a state of greater integration and spiritual realization, that person must first undergo a process of psycho-spiritual death and rebirth.

At the same time, numerous cultures all have prophesies that seem to foretell either, The End of the World , or The Birth of a New World , or both.

Australian Aboriginal

African Dogon

Native American

The Mayan Calendar

The Kali Yuga

The Dawning of the Age of Aquarius

The Christian Apocalypse, Rapture & Second Coming

Even Karl Marx with his dictum, from each according to his ability to each according to his need, seems more like a prophetic mystic visionary than an economic theorist.

Teilhard de Chardin’s Noosphere? © James L. Fournier

It would seem plausible that whatever event is being foretold would at once validate all of the prophesies in retrospect, and yet therefore also necessarily turn out to be different than any of their culturally bound interpretations.

What could happen that would at once be sufficient to fulfill our collective psychic experience of the End of the World , while at the same time allowing a New World to be born?

One event that could fulfill both conditions would be an economic collapse and subsequent transformation of the global monetary system.

But everything we can see suggests that economics will be but one among a multi-dimensional set of discontinuities.

The Shift Point in Time © James L. Fournier

For the meta-narrative to be compelling it must at once include the mythic dimension, but it must also embrace and transcend the material and scientific dimensions – for a culture trapped in materialism nothing less will be sufficient.

Reframing the Evolution of Technology In the Context of Biological Evolution Roger Dean

Life First Derived Energy from Chemicals in the Primordial Soup

Until it had Eaten All of the Soup and had to Invent Photosynthesis http://fig.cox.miami.edu/~tkoop/spring00/blnphotosyn.html

Only After the Oxygen Released had Rusted All of the Iron in the Earth’s Crust

The Oxygen Level Finally Spiked Causing Spontaneous Combustion, and the First Climate Crisis

Respiration Took Advantage of All the New High-Energy Oxygen http://bioweb.wku.edu/courses/BIOL115/Wyatt/Metabolism/Glycolysis2.htm

Resulting in the Carbon Cycle http://www.energex.com.au/switched_on/energy_environment/energy_s_html_carboncycle.html

The Carbon Cycle Has Remained in Balance Ever Since – Up Until Now http://www.bom.gov.au/info/climate/change/gallery/images/9.jpg

Thus, Peak Oil can actually be seen as at least the second energy crisis, and Global Warming as the second atmospheric crisis, in the history of life on Earth.

Renewables are on track to replace fossil fuel within 50 years or less, even at current growth rates. Solar Wind Biomass

But the atmospheric CO 2 level is already so high that it is driving an accelerating loss of Arctic Sea ice. This could set off an irrecoverable feedback loop long before then, even if we could reduce all CO 2 emissions to zero today.

Actual Arctic Sea Ice http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/seaice.shtml

Both geologic storage of CO 2 , and seeding the ocean with iron to promote algae bloom to remove CO 2 , are proving unsuccessful in recent scientific tests. However, there are two little known methods of addressing Climate Change that could allow us to first temporarily reverse the warming, and then gradually remove net CO 2 from the atmosphere over decades.

Global Cooling is a geo-engineering scheme wherein a fine mist of sea water would be sprayed up into low-lying ocean clouds to increase their reflectivity. Initial modeling indicates that this could counteract as much as twice the warming so far, and do so by means of small robotic wind powered ships at a total global cost of less than $100M/year.

Biochar is perhaps the only beneficial method of removing net carbon from the atmosphere. By making a portion of waste biomass into agricultural charcoal the process removes net carbon from the atmosphere while increasing soil fertility. If fully deployed globally, biochar might remove all of the net carbon released from burning fossil fuels, within about 50 years.

http://www.biomassec.com

This allows us to imagine a scenario where Climate Change could prove to be an acute emergency, one that comes to a head within a few years, but one which must be dealt with by implementing both short-term mitigation and long-term solutions that will continue to be deployed over a period of many decades.

What if the crises we see on the horizon are not the beginning of a protracted dark age? What if the current model of infinitely accelerating growth is also incorrect? Many events that will be frightening to us may be exactly what must happen to make the leap to a truly sustainable long-term future, but what would that look like?

Buckminster Fuller First Described Humanity’s Option for Success

If Global Trends Decelerate, What Looked Like Log Curves and J-Curves May Turn Out to be Bell Curves and S-Curves

An S-Curve Implies a Future Plateau Characterized by Climax Technology © James L. Fournier

The Shift Point in Time © James L. Fournier

At the Point of Inflection on the S-Curve the System is: Changing So Fast That Nothing is Retained So Inefficient Nothing Should Be Retained First Glimpsing the Potential Future State Passing Through the Neck of the Hourglass Itself the Global Birth Canal Chaotic, Highly Unstable

Changing So Fast That Nothing is Retained

So Inefficient Nothing Should Be Retained

First Glimpsing the Potential Future State

Passing Through the Neck of the Hourglass

Itself the Global Birth Canal

Chaotic, Highly Unstable

As We Pass Through the Neck of the Hourglass There Will Be Two Key Measures of Success: Preservation of Biodiversity Achieving Climax Technology

Preservation of Biodiversity

Achieving Climax Technology

The Family Tree of Life is the True Measure of Wealth Tree of Life Web Project http://tolweb.org/tree

For all of human evolution Nature was something with teeth and claws that could jump out of the dark and eat you. Now, in a single generation that situation has been inverted. Nature is suddenly something fragile that we must protect lest we perish.

We are undergoing a point of inversion in matter and culture. From this point on our technological evolution in matter may be guided by the recognition of the potential for a climax technology, a state of Meta-Nature. A state as harmonious as nature in the coherence of its design, which, like nature, is the realization of a potential already inherent in the puzzle that is matter. Meta-Nature

GEOMAN © James L. Fournier

Silicon is Like the Next Octave of Carbon © James L. Fournier

Photovoltaics Capture Photons in Silicon Just as Photosynthesis Does with Carbon

From Wood to Hydrogen http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch8en/conc8en/energytransition.html

Carbon to Hydrogen Ratio Has Been Evolving in Fossil Fuels Wood Peat Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydrogen Each has less carbon and more hydrogen until one arrives at pure hydrogen Hydrogen is the smallest lightest element

Wood

Peat

Coal

Oil

Natural Gas

Hydrogen

Each has less carbon and more hydrogen until one arrives at pure hydrogen

Hydrogen is the smallest lightest element

Bucky Balls: Buckminsterfullerene and C 60 Based Carbon Nanotubes Carbon structures based on a geodesic sphere with 60 nodes will provide the ultra strong & ultra light-weight materials that will allow us to achieve the order of magnitude increase in natural resource and energy efficiency that we will need.

Carbon structures based on a geodesic sphere with 60 nodes will provide the ultra strong & ultra light-weight materials that will allow us to achieve the order of magnitude increase in natural resource and energy efficiency that we will need.

Summary of Meta-Nature An Octave of Nature A Climax Technology As Energy Efficient as Nature As Material Efficient as Nature Not Merely An Imitation of Nature A Platonic Potential Inherent in Creation

An Octave of Nature

A Climax Technology

As Energy Efficient as Nature

As Material Efficient as Nature

Not Merely An Imitation of Nature

A Platonic Potential Inherent in Creation

The Shift Point in Time © James L. Fournier

The Shift must reframe the perception of society, to at once validate everything that has happened to bring us to this point, while at the same time making it self-evident to everyone that we must each now radically change course in the light of this new found perspective.

© James L. Fournier

Add a comment

Related presentations

Related pages

The Global Trajectory - UCAR - University Corporation for ...

The Global Trajectory* *This paper is based on a presentation given at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society, 18 January 1993. ©1993 ...
Read more

Memetic Strategies for Global Trajectory Optimisation ...

Some types of space trajectory design problems present highly multimodal, globally non-convex objective functions with a large number of local
Read more

Trajectory, Global Academics, Teaching K-8 Children ...

Global Academics uses Trajectory to teach K-8 children computer skills. Trajectory is an education computer platform that updates constantly.
Read more

GTOC Portal | The Global Trajectory Optimisation ...

The Global Trajectory Optimization Competition is an event taking place every one-two years over roughly one month during which the best aerospace ...
Read more

Global Trajectory Optimisation Competition

Global Trajectory Optimisation Competition GTOC7 Announcement. The team Politecnico di Torino - Università di Roma "Sapienza" is honored to announce the ...
Read more

Trajectory Inc. - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Trajectory Inc. is an American technology company that focuses on solving the problems facing the global book publishing market. It was founded by Jim ...
Read more

Multi-target tracking by learning local-to-global ...

The multi-target tracking problem is challenging when there ... The local-to-global trajectory models can be used to link detections from consecutive ...
Read more

Trajectory, Inc.

Trajectory, Inc., Marblehead, ... The afternoon super-session will feature some of the global publishing communities brightest innovators.
Read more

ACT / ESA - Informatics and Applied Mathematics

The GTOP web pages contain the exact definition of some black-box global optimisation spacecraft trajectory problems and their best putative solutions.
Read more