Published on February 20, 2014
Strategic Analysis of Global Hybrid and Electric Heavy-Duty Transit Bus Market China to Account for Nearly Half the Global H&E Bus Sales by 2020 BRIEF SUMMARY NC7C-18 October 2013
Contents Section Slide Numbers Executive Summary 5 Research Objective, Methodology, Background, and Scope 23 Definitions and Segmentation 29 Transit Bus System in Passenger Mobility 34 Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications 46 Drivers and Restraints—Total Market 52 Market Forecast—Total Market 60 • Global HD Transit Bus Market—Unit Shipment Forecast 64 • Top Hybrid and Electric Transit Bus OEMs—Key OEM Forecasts 66 • Snapshot of Global HD Transit Bus Market in 2020—H&E 69 • H&E Transit Bus Market—Market Share Analysis 70 Profiles of Key Market Participants 71 Top Hybrid and Electric Transit Bus OEM Profiles 79 Global Hybrid Module Supplier Product Mapping 88 NC7C-18 2
Contents (continued) Section Slide Numbers Chinese Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 95 European Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 105 North American Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 113 Indian Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 120 Latin American Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 126 Russian Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 132 Rest of World Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 138 Technology Trends and Analysis 147 Li-ion Battery 155 Li-ion Battery Cost Breakdown 158 UCs in Buses 162 Transit Buses—Cost Comparison Between the UC eBus vs Diesel Bus 167 Fuel Cell Range Extenders Fuel Cell System—Cost Split Analysis 171 174 Conclusions and Future Outlook 175 Appendix 181 NC7C-18 3
Executive Summary NC7C-18 4
Executive Summary—Top HD Transit Bus Market Performance The global market softened across the board in 2012, and North America and India showed moderate growth in transit bus sales while China and Russia experienced decent growth. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Top Regions Unit Shipment, Global, 2011 and 2012 6.7% China (8.8%) Europe India 3.5% North America 2.7% Latin America (9.7%) 5.8% Russia 0 10 20 30 40 50 Units (000s) 2012 2011 Note: Heavy Duty (HD) Transit Bus: 8T and above or 10m and above. 60 • Robust demand from Tier II cities and new BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) services have helped sustain market growth in China. • Sovereign debt crisis and austerity measures across Europe weakened transit bus demand. However, subsidies were extended to green energy buses. • Despite slowdown in second half of the year, the Indian transit bus market experienced a marginal yoy growth. The slowdown is expected to continue through 2013. • North American bus industry showed recovery on the backing of replacement orders and federal push for green mobility. • Slowing Brazilian economy, coupled with Euro V introduction impacted transit bus sales. However, there was a recovery in the last quarter. • Russia’s urban passenger mobility space saw major push in wake of rising congestion and the modernization drive by fleets. Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 5
Executive Summary—Integrated Mobility The future of urban transportation is multimodal commuting, combining door-to-door solutions using dedicated mobility platforms. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Transit Solutions Comparative Analysis, Global, 2020 Intercity Intercity Train Travel Distance Suburbs Shared Mobility Private Cars City Intercity Bus Urban Railway Shared Mobility Micro-mobility Cycle Transit Bus Destination Travel Distance • Door-to-door integrated, multimobility a reality in future • Vehicle manufacturers to offer smart mobility solutions ensuring first- and last-mile connectivity • Government to combine public transport with bike/two-wheeler/car-rental schemes • Market will see new participants in market termed as Mobility Integrators Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 6
Executive Summary—Integrated Mobility (continued) The HD transit buses and BRT provide a 10,000 to 15,000 pphpd capacity that can bridge the gap between high-capacity upstream urban rail systems and low-capacity downstream transportation options. Urban Transportation Puzzle Urban Rail • Subways and heavy urban rail systems are available in city centres in urban areas. • The operating capacities are 70,000 to 120,000 passenger per hour per direction (pphpd). • Conventional buses can handle capacities in the range of 3,000 to 5,000 pphpd. • BRT has an ideal capacity of 10,000 to 15,000 pphpd to bridge the gap. Transit Bus Car Sharing Bike Sharing Bicycle Walking • Car sharing, bike sharing and other nonmotorized transportation options emerge critical in delivering the last-mile connectivity. Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 7
Executive Summary—Comparison of Transit Bus and Urban Railway Transit bus systems emerge as a sustainable solution for both developed and developing economies, with relatively lower capital expenditure and high route flexibility compared to railway system. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Transit Solutions Comparative Analysis, Global, 2012 Urban Rail Transit Bus 5 Efficiency ,  Ratings: [Urban Rail], [Transit Bus] 4 Route Flexibility , [4.5] Capital Expenditure , [4.5] 3 2 1 Environmental Footprint ,  Network (Distance) ,  0 Passenger Information System , [4.5] Total Ratings: Urban Rail–32 Transit Bus–36 Flexible Frequency ,  Off Vehicle Fare Collection [4.5], [3.5] Journey experience [4.5],  0-Min 5-Max Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 8
Executive Summary—Transit Bus Market Key Influencing Trends The lowest pressure on existing energy infrastructure and lower emissions relative to CNG/LNG* buses will catalyze the relevance and prevalence of hybrid buses for urban mobility through the forecast period and after. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Key Influencing Trends, Global, 2012–2020 Urbanization and Congestion Regulatory Environment • Low emission zones • Legislations mandating greener transport solutions • Low cost and quick mass transport • Subsidies for electric/hybrid/ alternate fuel vehicles • Connectivity between multiple points in city and suburbs • Strict fuel efficiency targets Energy Storage modules • • • Reducing dependency on energy import • Drive towards fuel efficient vehicles Global Competition Increased production capacity Adoption of renewable and alternate energy • Falling module prices • Energy Security Rapid technological advancements • Expansion into global markets to increase revenue • Develop innovative transit solutions to stay ahead of competition Infrastructure development • Investment in charging infrastructure • Preference for BRT system • Off-board ticketing system *Compressed natural gas/liquid natural gas (CNG/LNG). Source: ECLAC; Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 9
Executive Summary—2020 Snapshot of Global HD Transit Bus Market BRIC nations will lead growth, however, the ROW markets such as Africa and ASEAN are expected to gain significance as they migrate towards economical and flexible urban transportation solutions. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Top Regions Unit Shipment Forecast, Global, 2012–2020 ~24,500 ~14,800 ~6,400 6 7 North America 5 Europe CAGR: 7.7% Global Share: 8.8% CAGR: 3.9% Global Share: 5.3% CAGR: 4.2% Global Share: 2.4% Russia ~73,200 ~40,700 1 ~58,100 ~60,000 4 3 South America CAGR: 6.3% Global Share: 20.9% 2 India China CAGR: 5.4% Global Share: 26.3% CAGR: 6.5% Global Share: 14.6% ROW CAGR: 8.4% Global Share: 21.6% Note: Size of ball denotes the ‘HD Transit Bus’ market size by unit volume in respective regions. ‘x’ Ranking of region as per market size ‘H&E Transit Bus’ NC7C-18 Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan 10
Executive Summary—Unit Shipment Forecast HD Transit Bus Market Global transit bus sales are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 6.4% on account of demand for green buses rising from government mandates and commitments; share of diesel powertrain to reduce to 74%. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast, Global, 2012–2020 ~278,000 CAGR = 6.4% Diesel and Others CNG/LNG H&E 15% 2020 Regional Shares 80,000 13% ~168,000 28% 60,000 6% 5% 8% 9% Units 7% 16% 14% 72% 5% 40,000 11% 89% 84% 6% 58% 20,000 84% 85% 37% 30% 0 2012 18% 30% 52% 33% North America 76% 9% South America China India Russia Europe ROW 2020 Note: Others include Bio-fuel, gasoline, ethanol, LPG. HD - 8T and above (or) 10m and above. Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 11
Executive Summary—Hybrid Transit Bus Penetration by Architecture Parallels will dominate the global hybrid powertrain market as tough economic situations will influence buying decisions towards low-cost solutions. Top hybrid module suppliers are expected to launch parallel systems. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Market Share by Hybrid Architecture, Global, 2012–2020 CAGR = 16.9% Hybrid Architecture Penetration SeriesParallel 25.7% Series 17.9% Series 11.6% SeriesParallel 21.2% Units ~26,900 ~7,700 96 % 95Parallel % 56.4% 2012 2012 84 % 83 % Parallel 67.2% 2020 2020 Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 12
Executive Summary—Region Wise Price Comparison for Transit Buses China will feature the most competitively priced hybrid/electric transit buses, and prices for both conventional and alternative powertrain-propelled transit buses were found highest in TRIAD (NA, Europe, Japan) markets. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Regional Market Price Scenario, Global, 2012 Region Conventional (Diesel) Hybrid $200,000–$225,000 $280,000–$340,000 $410,000–$500,000 China $60,000–$90,000 $125,000–$200,000 $280,000–$350,000 India $75,000–$110,000 $175,000–$255,000 $325,000–$410,000 North America $350,000–$450,000 $500,000–$595,000 $625,000–$710,000 Europe $300,000–$410,000 $450,000–$540,000 $595,000–$680,000 Russia $130,000–$180,000 $245,000–$325,000 $400,000–$500,000 ROW $100,000–$350,000 $195,000–$500,000 $300,000–$700,000 Latin America Major low-cost markets Electric Major high-cost markets Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 13
Executive Summary—Global Hybrid Module Supplier Product Mapping Participants to increasingly focus on parallel module with 3 major suppliers likely to introduce it by 2014. Chinese module integrators are poised to capture significant market volume, however restricted to China. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Hybrid Module Product Mapping, Global, 2012 Allison is expected to look at vertical integration of hybrid components to expand its presence and increase revenue. SeriesParallel (Dual) Hybrid Architecture H40EP / H50EP Partnerships with top Chinese bus OEMs have propelled Eaton to global leadership. Parallel Parallel system is expected to hit the market by 2014. Eaton Hybrid In addition to new bus systems, ZF offers option of retrofit in existing transit buses. DIWA Siemens’ will look to establish its brand as complete hybrid system solution provider in addition to being major sub-system supplier. Series Allison NC7C-18 BAE Vossloh Hybrid ELFA HybriDrive Eaton Siemens Module Suppliers Voith Vossloh EcoLife ZF Source: Frost & Sullivan 14
Executive Summary—Matrix of Hybrid Module Suppliers and OEMs Volvo is the only major participant to have hybrid system developed in-house. Allison leads North American hybrid transit bus market as supplier shipping most hybrid powertrain systems. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Green Powertrain and Energy Storage Standard Overview, North America and Europe, 2012 Bus OEMs—North America Module Supplier Nova Bus NABI NewFlyer Gillig Bus OEMs—Europe MAN Daimler Van Hool Solaris ADL Optare Wright Bus IVECO VDL Allison BAE Eaton Siemens Voith Vossloh ZF Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 15
Executive Summary—Matrix of Hybrid Module Suppliers and OEMs (continued) A lack of local hybrid expertise Has benefitted global suppliers. In the future, as global suppliers start local bases, China and India can become export hubs due to low raw material and manufacturing cost. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Green Powertrain and Energy Storage Standard Overview, Global, 2012 Top Bus OEMs – China Module Supplier Yutong Wuzhoulong Foton Golden Dragon – India Kinglong Zhongtong TATA Allison BAE Eaton Fugong ZF • In China, Siemens is represented as a sub-system supplier to many of the above module integrators. • India is a sizable market opportunity and is expected to be predominantly a parallel hybrid market. • Since the Indian hybrid bus market is expected to reach a considerable volume only after 2016, Eaton may miss the advantage as other module suppliers are expected to launch parallel systems by then. • In addition, Volvo with its captive hybrid module and first mover advantage as a leader in high end transit bus market is likely Source: Frost & Sullivan to dominate the Indian hybrid bus market. NC7C-18 16
Executive Summary—Transit Bus Powertrain and ESS Standard Parallel hybrids are expected to strengthen its market position due to the cost advantage over other systems. UCs and UC hybrids will gain prominence as a primary energy storage system, especially in hybrid buses. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Green Powertrain and Energy Storage Standard Overview, Global, 2012–2020 New Energy Powertrains Region Parallel Hybrid Series Hybrid Energy Storage Technologies Series-Parallel Hybrid Pure Electric Ni-Mh Batteries Li-ion Batteries Ultracapacitors (UCs) UC Hybrid Latin America Europe North America China India Russia ROW Market in 2012 NC7C-18 Strong Trend Towards 2020 Moderate Trend Towards 2020 Source: Frost & Sullivan 17
Executive Summary—Battery Manufacturer Geographical Map The limited geographic presence of Tier I battery suppliers (from an integration point of view) is opening opportunities for material suppliers within the electric vehicles (EV) battery space. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Battery Manufacturer Geographical Presence, Global, 2012 Battery Chemistry Geographical Presence (Production and Integration) Battery Manufacturers AESC North America EU China Japan South Korea India Cathode Manganese Spinel LG Chem Manganese GS Yuasa Cobalt + Manganese Panasonic Phosphate Toshiba Phosphate Li-Tec Manganese BYD Phosphate JCI Phosphate Exide SK Energy Polymer Polymer + Manganese Hitachi NA Miljø Innovasjon AS Dow Kokam Polymer Manganese The bankruptcy of major American battery manufacturers, such as A123 and Enerdal, will impact ongoing research and subsequently delay the improvements in Li-ion battery technologies. Considering Options N/A - Not Available - Not considering - Present (Integration Capability) Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 18
Executive Summary—Key Regional Focal Points for OEMs Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) should look at developing independent market entry strategies for different regions. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Regional Market Scenario, Global, 2012 Market Latin America Ride Cost/trip $0.75–$1 Operational Subsidy No subsidy Vehicle Price (12 m) Customer Types $200,000–$225,000 Private operators China $0.25–$0.30 Subsidized $60,000–$90,000 Public (state purchase and leased to private operators) India $0.2/stage $75,000–$110,000 Public (state operator) Subsidized Key OEM Focal Points • Financing and leasing • Localized assembly • Product quality (life cycle enhancement) • Localized assembly • Advanced powertrain technologies • Product quality • STU collaboration North America $1–$5 Subsidized $350,000–$450,000 Public (local transit agency) • Advanced powertrain development • Reduced product delivery time Europe $1.5–$4.0 Subsidized $300,000–$410,000 Public (local transit agency) • Advanced powertrain development Russia $0.75–$0.83 Subsidized $130,000–$180,000 Public (local transit agency) • Localized assembly • Collaboration with local OEMs ROW $0.5–$10 $100,000–$350,000 Public/private • Distribution and after-sales network Subsidized/ no subsidy Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 19
Executive Summary—Unit Shipment H&E Transit Bus OEMs Yutong led the global H&E bus market, and Volvo’s global footprint enabled it to sell nearly 1,000 units. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Unit Shipment by OEMs, Global, 2012 Europe 0 200 North America 400 China 600 Latin America 800 1,000 ROW 1,200 Units 1,400 1,600 Yutong Volvo Wuzhoulong Foton FAW Kinglong Volvo is currently the only OEM to have representation in all key global markets for H&E buses. CSR Times Ankai Sunwin New Flyer Golden Dragon High growth in H&E bus sales has provided the Chinese OEMs the confidence to aggressively invest in the technology and to rapidly foray into capacity building. Higer Gillig Daimler BYD ADL BYD will establish overseas plants starting with one in California in 2013. Uruguay has placed the largest eBus order and it is expected to be fulfilled though 2015. Optare Note: Heavy Duty (HD) Transit Bus: 8T and above or 10m and above. NC7C-18 Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan 20
Key Findings H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Key Research Findings, Global, 2012–2020 1 The global HD transit bus market is set to reach ~278,000 units by 2020 with a CAGR of 6.4% over the 2012 to 2020 forecast period. China and Latin America will contribute 47.2% of global volumes. 2 By 2020, market penetration of hybrid transit buses is expected to reach 9.7%, while that of electric buses is expected to be 5.4%. The combined market size is forecasted to be ~41,800 units growing at a CAGR of 20.7%. 3 Chinese manufacturers such as Yutong, Wuzhoulong, Foton, and Kinglong are expected to top the global hybrid and electric transit bus market. Volvo, MAN, and Daimler will feature as nonChinese members of the top 10 hybrid and electric (H&E) transit bus OEMs by unit volumes. Vertical integration efforts to be increasingly pursued by Western OEMs while Eastern OEMs will develop synergistic relationships with Tier 1 suppliers of powertrain systems. 4 By 2020, parallel hybrid systems will strengthen its market share from 56% in 2012 to about 67%, and remain the most prevalent hybrid powertrain architecture. Market dominance by Eaton, Allison, and BAE is expected to be challenged by as ZF, Siemens, and new Chinese hybrid integrators such as Fugong and Santroll. 5 Globally, more than 250 BRT lines are operational or under various stages of implementation. This translates into enormous market potential for new vehicle purchase and replacement demand, especially for H&E buses. Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 21
Research Objective, Methodology, Background, and Scope NC7C-18 22
Geographic Definitions and Research Scope Base Year 2012 Study Period 2012 to 2020 Forecast Period 2013 to 2020 Vehicle Type Hybrid and Electric (H&E) buses, H&E Transit buses and BRT buses (above 10 meters in length) Geographic Scope The regional markets covered in this research service are: • North America consists of United States and Canada • Europe consists of Western Europe, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe (excluding Russia and Turkey) • China • India • Russia • Latin America consists of Central America and South America • Rest of World consists of Africa, Middle East (including Turkey), Rest of Asia (excluding China and India), and Oceania (Australia and New Zealand) Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 23
Research Aims and Objective Aim The aim of this research study is to provide executive analysis of growth opportunities in the Global H&E HD transit bus market. Objectives • Provide strategic overview of key megatrends and market engineering metrics • Provide market drivers, restraints, and opportunities • Provide forecasts for the total transit bus market in key global markets • Provide forecasts of the H&E HD transit bus market • Provide insight on future technologies determining the growth of the market • Provide market share analysis for overall and constituent markets • Develop an actionable set of recommendations for market entry and growth Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 24
Key Questions this Study Will Answer H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Key Questions This Study Will Answer, Global, 2012 What are the key market and technology trends influencing the H&E HD transit bus market? What is the HD total transit bus market in key market regions and the penetration of H&E technology in the total HD transit bus market? What is the competitive landscape and dynamics influencing growth and development of this market? What is the split between different technologies used in H&E modules in key market regions? Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 25
Research Background This research study is a short summary capturing content from various recently published and on-going research in the areas of global commercial vehicle powertrain, chassis, safety, telematics, and regulation compliance technologies and markets, such as the following: • NA5E-18 Strategic Analysis of the Global Bus Rapid Systems Market—Completed • N9FF-18 Strategic Analysis of Medium-Heavy Duty Hybrid/Electric Truck and Bus Market in North America and South America—Completed • M783-18 Strategic Analysis of Medium-Heavy Hybrid/Electric Truck and Bus Markets in EMEA Region— Completed • M8D2-18 Strategic Analysis of MD-HD CNG/LNG Truck and Bus Market in Western Europe— Completed • N8CF-18 Strategic Analysis of Class 6-8 Natural Gas Truck Market in North America—Completed • N998-18 Strategic Analysis of Brazilian Commercial Truck Market—Completed • N8E4-18 Strategic Analysis of Class 4-8 Truck Safety Technologies Market in North America— Completed • NA53-18 Strategic Analysis of Global Platforms of Major Heavy-duty Truck Manufacturers—Completed • P4F1-18 Strategic Analysis of Indian Commercial Vehicle Market—Completed • Strategic Analysis of Medium-Heavy Hybrid/Electric Truck and Bus Markets in China and India— Completed • NAAF-18 Strategic Analysis of Powertrain Downsizing Strategies of Major Heavy Duty Truck Manufacturers in North America—Completed This study is also supplemented by our on-going continuous interactions with vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, for alternative powertrain technologies, among other truck technologies. Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 26
Research Methodology Research Methodology: Frost & Sullivan’s research study is based on secondary and primary research data. Secondary Research: Extraction of information from existing studies and project material within the F&S database, to include data and information gathered form technical papers, specialized magazines, seminars and internet research. Primary Research: Over 35 interviews have been conducted over phone by senior consultants/industry analysts with original equipment suppliers, regulation authorities and distributors. Primary research has accounted for 80% of the total research. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Partial List of Industry Participants, Global, 2012 North America Europe Asia New Flyer of America (New Flyer) Volvo Bus Corporation (Volvo) Zhengzhou Yutong Group Co., Ltd. (Yutong) North American Bus Industries (NABI) Daimler Buses (Daimler) Shenzhen Wuzhoulong Motors Co., Ltd. (Wuzhoulong) Gillig Corporation (Gillig) Iris Bus (IVECO) Anhui Ankai Automobile Co., Ltd (Ankai) Nova Bus (Nova) MAN Trucks and Bus (MAN) Shanghai Sunwin Bus Corporation (Sunwin) Sinautec Automobile Technologies Solaris Bus (Solaris) Foton AUV (Foton) BAE Systems Alexander Dennis Ltd., (ADL) Build Your Dreams (BYD) Allison Transmission ZF Tata Motors (TM) Eaton Siemens Ashok Leyland Ltd., (AL) Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 27
Latin America—Top H&E HD Transit Bus OEMs With major European OEMs with in-house hybrid systems dominating the brazilian market, hybrid module suppliers will have to look at Cuba, Peru, Argentina, and Uruguay for market growth. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Competitive Benchmarking, Latin America, 2012–2014 OEM Volvo Product Portfolio • Hybrid – 3 models • Electric – Nil Hybrid Module Key Information Key Markets • Parallel (In House) • Volvo became the first OEM to deliver a big order (30 units) of hybrid bus in Brazil. • Order from BRT corridors (such as an order of 60 hybrid bus for Curitiba) will trigger the demand for H&E buses. • Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Peru, Columbia Daimler • Hybrid – 1 model • Electric – Nil • Series (ZF) • Fortaleza, Sau Paulo are expected to be • Brazil, the first cities to see Daimler’s Hybrid Mexico, Chile, Buses purchases. Argentina, • Leadership in Mexican market will propel Peru, Daimler’s growth in Latin America. Columbia BYD • Hybrid – Nil • Electric – 1 model NA • BYD is expected to start delivery of Uruguay’s CTS and Buquebus order for 500 eBuses from 2013 through 2014. • Uruguay • Brazil • IVECO, MAN and Scania are other major global bus OEMs expected to start introducing H&E buses in Latin American nations such as Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. • Countries such as Venezuela, Comlumbia, Uruguay, Peru and Chile are likely to be explored by Chinese OEMs as low cost buses will be highly sought after in these regions. Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 28
Market Engineering Methodology One of Frost & Sullivan’s core deliverables is its Market Engineering studies. They are based on our proprietary Market Engineering Methodology. This approach, developed across 50 years of experience assessing global markets, applies engineering rigor to the often nebulous art of market forecasting and interpretation. A detailed description of the methodology can be found here. Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7C-18 29
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