Global BRT (Bus Rapid Transit ) Market

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Information about Global BRT (Bus Rapid Transit ) Market

Published on February 20, 2014

Author: sandeepkar



Brief summary of research findings from Frost & Sullivan's study focused on global BRT market

Strategic Analysis of Global Bus Rapid Transit Systems Market Market to Double Through Growth in Demand From New Regions and Advanced BRT Solutions Global NA5E-18 March 2012

Research Team Analyst Analyst Bharani Lakshminarasimhan Ryan Carmichael Research Analyst, Automotive & Transportation Research Analyst, Automotive & Transportation +91 44 66814122 Program Director +1.416.490.1274 Strategic Review Committee Leader Sandeep Kar Sarwant Singh Global Director, Automotive & Transportation Partner, Automotive & Transportation +1.416.490.7796 N5AE-18 +44 207 915 7843 2

Contents Section Slide Numbers Executive Summary 6 Research Methodology, Geographical Scope and Partial List of Companies Interviewed 20 BRT Systems Market – Overview and Definition 26 Bus Rapid Transit Systems – Global Best Practices Comparative Analysis 30 a. BRT Standard 32 b. BRT Bus Standard 33 c. BRT Bus Powertrain Standard 34 d. Global BRT Systems-Hot Spot Analysis 35 e. Comparative Analysis of Top 3 BRTs 37 f. Case Study-Guangzhou BRT 39 Market & Technology Dynamics for BRT systems 41 a. Market Drivers and Restraints b. Product Life Cycle Analysis of BRT Systems 47 c. Global BRT Vehicle Market—Value Chain Analysis N5AE-18 42 50 3

Contents Section Slide Numbers Total Market Measurements 51 a. Global BRT Vehicle Unit Shipments Forecast 52 b. Global BRT Vehicle Powertrain Penetration Forecast 54 c. Global BRT Vehicle – Bus Length Configuration Forecast 56 d. Global BRT Vehicle OEM Unit Shipments Forecast- Region Wise 57 Bus Rapid Transit Systems Market– Regional Profiles 59 a. Latin America 60 b. China 68 c. India 75 d. Europe 84 e. North America 92 f. Rest of World 99 BRT Systems – Need Evaluation and Analysis 108 a. Mega Trends Influencing the BRT Market b. Transit Solutions- Comparative Analysis N5AE-18 109 111 4

Contents Section Slide Numbers BRT systems – Design, Development and Implementation process 114 a. BRT Evolution 115 b. BRT System Design and Implementation 116 c. Service Design 118 d. Operational Model 119 e. BRT Cost Structure 120 f. BRT Financing Models 121 g. Bus OEMs Value Proposition in BRT 122 h. Integrated Mobility 123 BRT Vehicle Analysis 125 Strategic Recommendations and Conclusion 133 a. Key Research Findings 134 b. Key Conclusions and Future Outlook 135 Appendix N5AE-18 137 5

Executive Summary N8CF-18 6

Executive Summary—Key Findings 1 Globally Over 100 BRT Lines are currently operational or under various stages of implementation. This translates into enormous market potential for new vehicle purchase and replacement demand as well. 2 The global BRT vehicle market is set to reach over 7800 units by 2018. Latin America and China alone to account for over 58 per cent of the total market. 3 Volvo to retain global leadership with over 30 per cent global market share by 2018. Daimler emerging top competitor with 19 per cent share by 2018. 4 Diesel to remain dominant powertrain system over the forecast period. Alternative fuel powertrain penetration is set to triple and reach over 20 per cent by 2018. 5 By 2018 18-24m, low-floor, telematics enabled buses to feature in most BRT lines across the world. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. N5AE-18 7

Executive Summary—BRT Evolution : Informal Services to Full BRT – Bus Rapid Transit is Now Increasingly Being Viewed as a Viable and Effective Mode of Mass Transit in Urban Centers in Both Developed and Developing World Global BRT Systems Market : BRT Evolution (Global), 2011 Full BRT BRT Lite • Busways Conventional Services • • Informal Services • • • • Non Regulated Operators Taxi Like Services • • On-Board Fare Collection Poor Customer Service Often subsidized operations • • Segregated Bus Ways On-Board fare collection Standard vehicles and stations • • • Segregated bus ways Pre-board fare collection and verification Higher Quality Stations Clean vehicle Technology Open BRT system with no cap on operators • • • Integrated Routes (Feeder routes connecting the central trunk line) Closed, high quality Stations Flexible frequencies Variable services(All Stop and Express) Evolution of BRT Services Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis N5AE-18 8

Executive Summary—Global BRT Systems Hot Spot Analysis: Globally Over 100 BRT Lines are Currently Operational or Under Different Stages of Implementation Global BRT Systems Market : Hot Spot Analysis (Global), 2011-2018 North America China-India Existing BRT with expansion plans New BRT systems in the planning phase Latin America Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis N5AE-18 9

Executive Summary—Voice of Customer Research for Overall Public Experience in Relation to Transport Mode Strong Potential for BRTs in Many Major Urban Centers in Asia and Europe Journey Experience Index (JEI) tends to be higher among cities with a higher share of individual transport 100% Share Individual Transport 90% Car focused cities 15 4 80% 2 3 4 5 6 21 7 13 3 8 70% 9 24 23 20 60% 10 11 11 5 17 50% 1 2 12 14 13 Public transport focused cities 6 16 8 40% 22 18 10 7 30% 14 15 16 9 12 17 18 19 19 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Share Public Transport n=7,185; Q7: Mode of transport used, Q34: Indexed (Bubble Size = JEI (Journey Experience Index)) JEI for car focused cities is higher than public transport focused cities N5AE-18 1 20 21 22 23 24 Total New York Seattle Los Angeles San Francisco Mexico City Rio de Janeiro Copenhagen London Paris Frankfurt Moscow Dubai Cairo Johannesburg Beijing Shanghai Seoul Tokyo New Delhi Kuala Lumpur Singapore Jakarta Sydney 10

Executive Summary—Voice of Customer Research For BRT as a Solution Overcrowding, Traffic and Speed Cited as 3 Most Frustrating Aspects of Public Transit 1 out of 2 individual and 2 of 3 public transport users are frustrated with the traffic situation. But differences exist by region: In Americas a significant lower individual transport frustration level can be seen, whereas in APAC the difference between the two modes is the smallest. Frustration by mode is for both primarily caused by one reason: traffic congestions in individual and overcrowding in public transport Reasons for Frustration Reasons for Frustration Individual Transport Public Transport Overcrowding Traffic 11% 4% 32% 53% Total Speed Other 9% 3% 22% Traffic Speed Other No frustrations No frustrations 10% 4% 30% 65% 56% Americas EMEA 12% 4% 42% 42% APAC 14% 11% 12% 14% 12% 13% 14% 9% 11% 31% 24% 29% 32% 37% 37% Total Americas EMEA 13% 11% 13% 37% 26% APAC Q28: What,, if anything, was the most frustrating or annoying part of this trip? Concerns over overcrowding, traffic and speed in urban transportation could be overcome by an efficient BRT system. N5AE-18 11

Executive Summary—Comparison with Other Transit Solutions BRT Emerging as a Sustainable Compared to Light Rail and Conventional Bus Global BRT Systems Market : Transit Solutions- Comparative Analysis(Global), 2011 Light Rail BRT Conventional Bus 5 Efficiency - [5], [4.5], [3] Ratings : [Light Rail], [BRT], [Conventional Bus] 4 Route Flexibility [1], [4], [5] Capital Expenditure [1], [4.5], [5] 3 2 1 Environmental Footprint [5], [4], [2] Network (Distance) [2], [4], [5] 0 Passenger Information System [5], [4.5], [2] Total Ratings: Light Rail – 34 BRT – 39 Conventional Bus - 29 N5AE-18 Flexible Frequency [5], [5], [2] Off Vehicle Fare Collection [5], [4.5], [2] Journey experience [5], [4.5], [2] Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 12

Executive Summary—Integrated Mobility The 10,000 to 15,000 pphpd Capacity that BRT provides Can Bridge the Gap Between High Capacity Upstream Urban Rail Systems and Low Capacity Downstream Transportation Options • Urban Transportation Puzzle Urban Rail • Subways and heavy metro systems are available in city centers in urban areas. Operating capacities of 70,000-120,000 pphpd. BRT Conventional Bus Systems Ideal capacity of 10,00015,000 pphpd to bridge the gap. Car Sharing Bike Sharing Bicycle Walking • • Conventional buses can handle capacities in the range of 3,000 to 5,000 pphpd. Car sharing, bike sharing and other non-motorized transportation options emerge critical in delivering the last mile connectivity. Passenger Per Hour Per Direction (pphpd) N5AE-18 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 13

Executive Summary—Global BRT Vehicle Unit Shipments Forecast Latin America and China Alone Absorbed Over 3 Thousand BRT Vehicles in 2011; Indian, North American and European Markets Growing at a Fast Pace Global BRT Systems Market: Unit Shipment Forecast- Region Wise (Global), 2011 and 2018 Europe 800 North America 600 600 400 200 CAGR Unit Shipments CAGR 400 200 17 % China 2000 1500 17.8 % CAGR 1000 0 2011 2018 500 0 5.8 % 0 2011 2018 1500 2011 India CAGR 1000 Latin America 3000 22.1 % 500 4000 CAGR Rest of World 0 2011 2000 1500 2018 6.9 % 1000 1000 CAGR 0 2011 2018 2018 5.6 % 500 0 2011 Base Year, End Year N5AE-18 2018 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 14

Executive Summary—Global BRT Powertrain Penetration Forecast Diesel to Remain Dominant Propulsion Fuel Over the Forecast Period Albeit With Shrinking Demand as Alternative Fuel Powered BRTs Gain Rapid Proliferation Global BRT Systems Market: Unit Shipments- Powertrain Mix (Global), 2011 and 2018 Altenate Fuel Diesel 4,000 2018 Regional Shares 7,874 3,000 14.9 % 4,341 6.8 % 20.4 % 2,000 85.1 % 8.0 % 26.0 % 93.2 % 1,000 74.0 % 35.3 % 59.5 % 40.5 % 0 2011 • • 79.6 % 13.0 % Latin America North America 87.0 % 92.0% 64.7 % Europe China India Rest of World 2018 Market for advanced powertarin technologies is expected to increase across the forecast period as concerns over energy security and climate change emerge as key driving factors. North America, Europe and China emergeing as key growth markets for advanced powertrain Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis technologies. N5AE-18 15

BRT Bus Built Analysis-Length Configuration: Mapping Bus Configurations with Service Design is Critical; Long Articulated Buses Have Greater Acceptance in Trunk Service Compared to Direct Service BRT Applicability Length Configuration Direct Service Trunk Service Standard 12m 12 m Articulated 18 m Bi-articulated 24 m High Low Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis N5AE-18 16

BRT Standard: Segregated Bus Ways with Level Boarding Stations Considered Best Fit for Efficient BRT Operations; Migration of Operation Model in China and India Towards Closed System Compelling Bus OEMs to Focus on Product Competitiveness Operational Model Strong Trend Towards 2018 N5AE-18 Level Boarding Non Level Boarding Segregated Partially Segregated Closed Operation Public Operations Service Design Open Operations Trunk and Combination Feeder Service Direct Service Global BRT Systems Market : BRT Standard Overview (Global), 2011-2018 Bus ways Moderate Trend Towards 2018 Station Interface Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 17

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