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Published on February 6, 2008

Author: Riccard

Source: authorstream.com

What Does the Future Hold for Advanced Technologies?:  What Does the Future Hold for Advanced Technologies? John German American Honda Motor Co., Inc. Advanced Powertrain Forum August 5, 2005 3 Issues for the Future Automobile::  Energy Supply & Demand Sustainability Urban Air Quality Climate Change 3 Issues for the Future Automobile: Transportation’s Social Issues:  Climate Change Key Issues Air Pollution Energy Sustainability Social Concerns Transportation’s Social Issues Honda is Committed to Clean and Efficient Gasoline Vehicles:  Honda is Committed to Clean and Efficient Gasoline Vehicles Technically advanced F.E. leading models in the market Popular mass-market models with continual efficiency improvement Highest CAFE of major OEMs Honda’s Environmental Leadership:  Honda’s Environmental Leadership 1975 Civic CVCC 1st to meet ’70’s Clean Air Act, without a catalyst 1986 Civic CRX-HF 1st to top 50-mpg mark Seemingly-incompatible achievement of -- 1. Strong performance 2. Low emissions 3. High fuel economy 1990 VTEC engine introduced Honda’s Power Train Roadmap:  Honda’s Power Train Roadmap 2010 1990 2000 i-VTEC 2020 Improvement of ICE C V T VTEC-E FCV Accord I M A Alternative Fuel Vehicle Hydrogen fueled FCV CNG i-DSI + Efficiency / CO2 Reduction I M A INSIGHT Integrated Motor Assist I. C. Engine Technologies Civic IMA Honda’s Building Blocks for the Future:  Future Building Block LEV, ULEV, SULEV Leadership Infrastructure is perfect Reasonable cost Catalyst technology Honda’s Building Blocks for the Future Honda’s Building Blocks for the Future:  Honda’s Building Blocks for the Future Honda’s Future Dream:  Honda’s Future Dream Built on Core Honda Technologies: EV and HEV vehicle know-how Gaseous Fuel know-how Catalyst know-how Infrastructure innovation Technology innovation (Ultra-Cap) Conventional Technology:  Conventional Technology Honda VTEC Combustion::  ‘91 ‘95 ‘03 50% Application % HIGHER EFFICIENCY LOWER EMISSIONS GREATER PERFORMANCE (Variable valve Timing and lift, Electronically Controlled) Honda VTEC Combustion: Slide12:  Vehicle speed Cruise Decel Accel 6 Cylinder operation 3 Cylinder operation Variable Cylinder Management Honda Announced Improvements:  Honda Announced Improvements 2006 Civic VTEC Delays intake valve closure timing during cruising and other low-load conditions Throttle-by-wire used for larger throttle opening and a major reduction in pumping loss Switches valve timing for excellent acceleration Advanced VTEC Continuously variable intake valve timing and lift + 13% efficiency (vs. 2005 i-VTEC engine Advanced VCM Increased flexibility to expand range of driving conditions Improved active control engine mounts + 11% efficiency (vs. 2005 Honda V-6 engine) Transmission Advances:  Transmission Advances Dual-clutch automated manual Smooth shifting and potentially cheaper But launch concerns (no torque converter), huge investment Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT) Excellent city efficiency and extremely smooth Can deliver steady-state engine speeds to facilitate HCCI But torque limited, highway efficiency lower (belt friction), huge investment Improved shift points and lock-up strategies Low investment Lapillier 6-speed automatic Computer controls are enabling a variety of improved transmission designs Not yet clear which is most cost-effective – all may co-exist Incremental FE Technology:  Incremental FE Technology Engine technology High specific output (including 4 valve/cylinder) Variable valve timing/lift Cylinder deactivation Direct injection Precise air/fuel metering Transmission efficiency 5/6 speed-AT/6-speed MT CVT Dual-clutch automated MT Reduced losses Lightweight materials Low drag coefficient Low resistance tires Lower accessory losses Cost and value issue These technologies are continuously being incorporated into vehicles. However, consumers value other attributes more highly, such as performance, safety, utility, and luxury. Putting in technologies just to improve fuel economy may not be valued by customers. Fuel Economy Improvement - ??? Depends on how much is already incorporated into fleet and synergies (or lack of synergy) between technologies Worldwide Fuel Control:  Worldwide Fuel Control On a systems basis, good fuel is needed to enable many technologies Growing countries, such as India and China, need to improve fuel quality Sulfur Heavy metals Aromatics Deposit additives etc Diesels:  Diesels Slide18:  Comparison Between U.S. & Europe Source: US Department of Energy Report, October 2003; Association of European Automobile Manufacturers, April 2003 Note: All data valid through December 2002 Correlation with fuel price: R2=0.61 Diesel emission standards less stringent than gasoline in Europe Diesel Market Potential in US:  Diesels good for towing and highway efficiency But hybrids get better fuel economy in city driving Diesels are currently cheaper than hybrids, but are not cheap $1500 for 4-cyl., $2000-$3000 for V-8 Tier 2 emission standards will add significant cost Less convenient service stations (only ~ 20% carry diesel) Will take time for public to recognize improvements in noise, vibration, smell, starting, and emissions Plus pickup customers want a “tough” diesel, not a wimpy quiet one Must compete with improved gasoline engines and hybrids Europe refineries already shipping unwanted gasoline to US With continued fleet turnover to diesel in Europe, who will buy gasoline if US also shifts to diesels? Diesel Market Potential in US Hybrids:  Hybrids Slide21:  Electric Motor Intelligent Power Unit (IPU) Hybrid Vehicles CVT Efficient hybrid engine Civic Hybrid Integrated Motor Assist Hybrid :  Integrated Motor Assist Hybrid Transmission Motor / Generator Engine Battery Inverter Parallel - Type Relatively Simple, Lightweight & Compact Efficient in City and Highway driving Honda HEV Technology Evolution:  Honda HEV Technology Evolution Fuel Economy No.1 "World Best Efficiency” Hybrid vehicle for personal use World best aerodynamic design Light aluminum body VTEC + IMA system 1999 First optional hybrid powertrain High volume compact car i-DSI + IMA system Innovative Sedan Package Mainstream compact 2002 First V6 hybrid Performance + efficiency 255 horsepower –better than V6 City 29, hwy 37 mpg (same as Civic class) Mainstream midsize 2004 Powerplant:  Powerplant Parallel-Type Hybrid System Simple, Lightweight & Compact Efficient in City and Highway driving Engine and Motor Output Characteristics:  Engine and Motor Output Characteristics High Efficiency, High Torque Electric Motor CIVIC HYBRID (1.3L Engine only) Slide26:  Attractive Hybrid Features Integrated Electric Motor Low Operating Cost: Best “Idle” Quality: Superior Driving Range: Pride of Ownership: Beats any Luxury Car! Fewer Trips to the Station! Social Benefits! Fuel Savings! Alternative Fuels:  Alternative Fuels Honda’s Advanced CNG Technology:  Honda’s Advanced CNG Technology Civic GX Values Range > 200 miles CO2 reduction > 20% Performance = Gasoline Near-Zero Emissions Proven Honda DQR Satisfied customers Compact Cars - CO2 Comparisons “Wellhead-to-Wheel” CO2 emission 0 100 200 300 400 Civic Gasoline Jetta Diesel 353 306 Civic CNG 264 Civic Hybrid 236 -25% -11% Infrastructure Innovations:  Infrastructure Innovations NGVs Fleet Forklifts Private Fleet Refueling Home Refueling Fleet & Consumer Public Fast Fill Infrastructure Network Buses, Heavy Duty Slide30:  FCX-V2 FCX-V3 Improved performance and reliability Evolves to the next generation Compact Excellent performance Superb durability Methanol-reforming fueled fuel cell stack on FCX-V2 High-pressure hydrogen tank on a pure hydrogen-fueled FCX-V3 Series of public road tests as part of Next-generation Honda FC Stack released Start of R&D on fuel cell basic technology ‘80s ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 Development History of Honda FC Stack 2001 1999 2005 model launch CaFCP Output density of Honda FC stack:  Output density of Honda FC stack Compact High output FCX Equipped with Honda Fuel Cell STACK:  Spring 04 confirmation in California, and fall 04 in New York Japan testing started fall 03 First delivery to an individual customer in July 2005 Environmental adaptability Low/high temperature Performance Improved acceleration performance Fuel efficiency Improved energy efficiency FCX Equipped with Honda Fuel Cell STACK Slide33:  Home Energy Station Reformated Gas Home Refueling with Co-generation Heat Electricity Hydrogen Natural gas Reform Fuel cell Inverter Compress Storage tank ~ Refine Cooperative development with Plug Power Fuel Cells: The Holy Grail:  Fuel Cells: The Holy Grail Advantages: Very high fuel conversion efficiencies Greatly reduced heat loss Virtually zero emissions Quiet Reliable and long lifetime Low maintenance Wide range of applications in addition to vehicles Challenges Packaging, size, weight Cost Waste heat rejection Air supply  Compressor Cold temperature operation On-board hydrogen storage Hydrogen infrastructure System Comparison:  System Comparison Comparison of CO2 Emissions:  Renewable Energy Oil Base Natural Gas Base CO2 emissions [g/km] Tank to Wheels Well to Tank Honda’s Estimate JAPAN 10-15 mode FE base in 2010 CIVIC (VTEC-E) FIT (i-DSI) CIVIC IMA Diesel Engine Gasoline Reform. FCV CIVIC CNG Methanol Reform. FCV Hydrogen FCV 0 50 100 150 0 23km/L 16km/L 20km/L 29km/L (1250kg) Comparison of CO2 Emissions Improvement of Gasoline Vehicle Current Evaluation of Power Plant Technologies:  : Excellent : Good : Marginal :No contribution or not acceptable H2 Fuel Cell Gasoline Nat Gas Gasoline Hybrid Social Demand Customer Demand Tailpipe Emissions Efficiency (CO2) Alt. Fuel Cost Infra- structure Diesel Technology ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ △ △ △ △ △ △ × × × × × × ○ ○ (tank) Current Evaluation of Power Plant Technologies ○ ○ ○ w/ home refueling Package (Volume, Wt., features) × (inc. range) △ ○ - (range) Development History of Honda Hybrids:  00 Insight 03 Civic IMA Development History of Honda Hybrids 05 Accord IMA 06 Civic IMA 60 mm thick, 10kW NiMH, 144v, 35 kg Air cooled also asymmetric windings + 30 % torque Volume –30%, weight –6% Integrated cooling –32% weight, -20% size. Also more efficient inverter Internal magnet + resolver pickup, 12kW Volume –10%, weight –17% Power + 20% Integrated inverter, condenser, heat sink: –13% weight, -57% size High density coil windings High-performance magnets 15 kW, same size Inverter integrated with motor ECU Battery output power increased 30% 158v Improved cooling Hybrid Synergies:  Hybrid Synergies More efficient electric pumps and compressors Beltless engine Extend operating windows for Atkinson cycle and cylinder deactivation Provide quasi-steady-state load conditions for HCCI/CAI operation (especially with CVT) E-turbo High electric power – supercharger boost When power is not needed, use exhaust energy to drive e-turbo and recharge battery Potential Operating Modes:  Potential Operating Modes CAI – Controlled Auto Ignition Assumes camless valve actuation and e-turbo Consumer Features:  Consumer Features Plenty of electric power to do anything On-board electric generator Construction, emergency power Individual climate-controlled seats Power everything Automatic load leveling and shock resistance Multiple video displays and high power sound Safety features – cameras, heads-up displays “Stealth” operation (military, police, crooks) No limit to the imagination Mid-Term Evaluation of Hybrids vs. Diesels:  : Excellent : Good : Marginal :No contribution or not acceptable Gasoline Gasoline Hybrid Social Demand Customer Demand Tailpipe Emissions Efficiency (CO2) Alt. Fuel Package (Volume, Wt., features) Cost Infra- structure Diesel Technology ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ○ ○ ○ △ △ × × × × △ ○ ○ Mid-Term Evaluation of Hybrids vs. Diesels ○ - △ ○ - ◎ △ ○ - △ ○ - Diesels in wide-open rural areas – value highway FE and towing Hybrids everywhere else? – better city FE plus electric features Hybrid Cost down Synergies + customer features Diesel Emissions down, but cost up Diesel shift  cheap gasoline Technology Conclusions:  Technology Conclusions Challenge is customer’s low value of fuel economy Real cost of driving very low Performance, utility, comfort, safety valued more highly Most only consider fuel savings during ownership period Hybrid technology is progressing rapidly Costs coming down Synergies with other technologies developing Consumer features will develop Crystal ball unclear Improved conventional engines keep raising the bar Fuel cells the endgame, but timing unclear (not near term) CNG may appeal to a segment who dislikes refueling Diesels for rural areas, hybrids for urban? Multiple transmission designs likely Barriers to Achieving Potential Fuel Economy Increases in Cars and Light Trucks:  Barriers to Achieving Potential Fuel Economy Increases in Cars and Light Trucks Tradeoff with other attributes Declining fuel cost Consumers versus society CAFE History:  CAFE History Historical combined car and light truck CAFE Since 1987: Car CAFE up 0.9 mpg, light truck CAFE down 0.8 mpg LDT market share increased from 28% to 48% Combined CAFE decreased by 1.5 mpg Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - Cars:  Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - Cars Car Data from EPA’s 2003 FE Trends Report Fuel efficiency has increased by about 1.5% per year since 1987 However, this has all been used to increase other attributes more highly valued by the customer, such as performance, comfort, utility, and safety Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - LDT:  Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - LDT Light Truck Data from EPA’s 2003 FE Trends Report Fuel efficiency has increased by about 1.9% per year since 1987 However, this has all been used to increase other attributes more highly valued by the customer, such as performance, comfort, utility, and safety Real Gasoline Price:  Real Gasoline Price June 2004 Fleet Fuel Economy:  Fleet Fuel Economy Gasoline Cost per Mile:  Gasoline Cost per Mile Real Fuel Cost - % of Disposable Income:  Real Fuel Cost - % of Disposable Income Per Capita Disposable Income from BEA, Table 2.1, Personal Income and It's Disposition Willingness to Pay for FE:  Willingness to Pay for FE J.D. Power Hybrid Vehicle Acceptance Study March 6, 2002 Press Release Consumer interest in hybrid vehicles increases as gasoline prices rise 30% of buyers would “definitely” consider - another 30% indicate a strong consideration Of these, 1/3 would buy even if fuel cost savings during their ownership period would be less than the extra cost of the hybrid option 2/3 would not pay more than fuel savings during ownership period Slide54:  Customer Value of Hybrid Fuel Savings (Savings for the first 50,000 miles @ U.S.$1.80/gallon) Hybrid fuel economy increase 34 mpg baseline 23 mpg baseline 14 mpg baseline Small car Midsize car Large truck + 20% + 40% + 80% $441 $756 $1,176 $652 $1,118 $1,739 $1,071 $1,837 $2,857 J.D.Power survey on hybrids found that “Consumers indicate a willingness to pay more – $1,000 to $1,500 – for a hybrid powertrain…”

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