Futures methods for higher education: EDUCAUSE 2016

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Information about Futures methods for higher education: EDUCAUSE 2016

Published on November 14, 2016

Author: BryanAlexander

Source: slideshare.net

1. AssessingAssessing EmergingEmerging Technology andTechnology and Futures CapacityFutures Capacity for Yourfor Your OrganizationOrganization EDUCAUSE 2016

2. Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop 1. Introductions 2. Delphi method 3. Environmental scanning 4. Trend analysis 5. Scenarios 6. Implementation in your organization

3. Historical sketchHistorical sketch 1. Cold War: RAND and Shell 2. Growth of futures/futurology 3. Business, government

4. 2. Delphi method • Assemble experts • Structured queries • Reiterated assessments

5. Horizon ReportsHorizon Reports Higher EducationHigher Education K-12 EducationK-12 Education MuseumsMuseums LibrariesLibraries European Union (K-12)European Union (K-12) Latin America (Higher Ed)Latin America (Higher Ed) Regional/Sector Technology OutlooksRegional/Sector Technology Outlooks Australia / New Zealand / BrazilAustralia / New Zealand / Brazil Ireland / UK / Norway / Singapore / AsiaIreland / UK / Norway / Singapore / Asia China / Scandinavia / Int’l SchoolsChina / Scandinavia / Int’l Schools Training / eLearning / STEM / Community CollegesTraining / eLearning / STEM / Community Colleges www.nmc.org/horizon-project

6. 55 Editions55 Editions 75+ Translations75+ Translations 14 Years of Global Research into Emerging Technology Uptake14 Years of Global Research into Emerging Technology Uptake The NMC Horizon Project

7. HORIZON.WIKI.NMC.ORG

8. POLICYPOLICY LEADERSHIPLEADERSHIP PRACTICEPRACTICE

9. LONG-TERM IMPACT MID-TERM IMPACT SHORT-TERM IMPACT > Advancing Cultures of Innovation > Rethinking How Institutions Work > Redesigning Learning Spaces > Shift to Deeper Learning Approaches > Growing Focus On Measuring Learning > Increasing Use of Blended Learning Designs [KEYTRENDS]

10. Solvable vs. Difficult/Wicked Challenges

11. SOLVABLE DIFFICULT WICKED > Blending Formal + Informal Learning > Improving Digital Literacy > Competing Models of Education > Personalizing Learning > Balancing Our Connected + Unconnected Lives > Keeping Education Relevant [SIGNIFICANTCHALLENGES]

12. NEAR-TERM: 1 YR OR LESS MID-TERM: 2-3 YRS FAR-TERM: 4-5 YRS > Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) > Learning Analytics + Adaptive Learning > Augmented + Virtual Reality > Makerspaces > Affective Computing > Robotics [DEVELOPMENTSINTECH]

13. On campus • Can you use Horizon and others? • Can you build your own?

14. Horizon prompts exercise 1.Which developments in technology are most likely to have the largest impact on education over the next five years? 2.What are the most significant challenges facing education and technology? 3.Which significant trends will have the greatest influence on how education and

15. 3. Environmental scanning •Present-oriented, seeking seeds of future •Multiple, diverse sources •“So what?” Analysis

16. ACRL sample http://tinyurl.com/ACRLscan

17. STEEP framework Social Technological Economical Educational Political

18. Key questions to start on • What are your sources? • How do you share what you discover? • How does reflection shape your planning?

19. EXERCISE 1. Identify 2 stories from past 3 months 2. 1 personal, 1 professional 3. Note source

20. 4. Trend analysis Once you have discerned possible future-suggestive stories, what do you do with them?

21. 4. Trend analysis • What do they signal about a possible future? • What trends do they indicate? • How do they connect with your thinking? • How do they intersect?

22. EXERCISE Back to environmental scan. Break out trends.

23. 5. Scenarios https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamais_cascio/3991366442/

24. AdvantagesAdvantages 1. Narratives compel 2. Creativity for everyone 3. Role playing 4. Can be very low cost

25. CostsCosts 1. Time consuming 2. Can be costly 3. May seem too touchy-feely, too speculative

26. How to use?How to use? 1. Role playing 2. Simpler: how does your life change? 3. Group or individual/small group creation

27. Sample scenariosSample scenarios 1. Peak Higher Education 2. Health Care Nation 3. Tutor me, Siri 4. Renaissance

28. Peak higher educationPeak higher education Academia experiences a serious correction

29. The bubble burstThe bubble burst http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/

30. Grad programs checkedGrad programs checked

31. Perfect stormPerfect storm  Demographic decline  Accelerated prices + sunk costs  Low public funding  Alternatives rising

32. How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?  Fewer, less crowded campuses  Very international student body  Low-cost programs ($10K BA)

33. How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?  Increased remedial programs  College generally seen as job training

34. How does this impact learning?How does this impact learning? More alternatives:  Maker movement expands  More DIY learning, unschooling

35.  Vocational tech classes are widespread in K-12  Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths  Colleges have always been transnational

36. II:II: Health care nationHealth care nation Medical sector grows into leading US industry  45% of GDP

37. A new economyA new economy Ageing population

38. A new economyA new economy  Byzantine finances  Treatment improvements  Greater presence in society  Baumol’s disease

39. How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?  More programs, more people, more tech  Increased feminization of student body  Space sharing w/clinics + hospitals

40.  Some took premed-themed classes in high school  Medical heroes loom as large as sports figures  Many already familiar with eldercare practices

41. III. Tutor me, SiriIII. Tutor me, Siri  Tutoring software  Commodit y and enterprise versions

42. How it happenedHow it happened  Continuous developments in AI, HCI, learning science  Commercial, governmental, academic projects  Open education to draw upon

43. Higher education landscape:  Two Cultures implementation divide  Boom in CS, robotics departments  Scholarship battles

44. Higher education landscape:  Further adjunctification  F2f undergrad, grad enrollments drop  Math Emporium model

45.  Expanded study halls in high school  Beloved tutors carried to college, life  Value humans for eccentricity, style

46. IV. RenaissanceIV. Renaissance

47. Gaming world

48. Gaming as part of mainstreamGaming as part of mainstream cultureculture  Median age of gamers shoots past 30  Industry size comparable to music  Impacts on hardware, software, interfaces, other industries  Large and growing diversity of platforms, topics, genres, niches, players

49. Games serious, public, and political • Oiligarchy, Molle Industries • Jetset, Persuasive Games • The Great Shakeout, California • DimensionM, Tabula Digita

50. Classroom and courses  Curriculum content  Delivery mechanism  Creating games Peacemaker, Impact Games Revolution (via Jason Mittell)

51. •Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds, Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005) •Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies (Sage, 2008) •Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives (MIT, 2009) Game studies as academic fieldGame studies as academic field

52. How is gaming used now?How is gaming used now?

53. Use games to impact society

54. Some impacts on campusesSome impacts on campuses  Changes in hardware, software  Part of undergraduate life  Learning content, both informal and formal  Career paths

55. Interface changesInterface changes  Gartner: end of the mouse  Touch screen (iOS)  Handhelds (Wii)  Nothing (Kinect)

56. Higher education landscape:  Accreditation: drives project-based, studio-style pedagogy  Libraries: rare and/or smaller  Professional development: distance, DiY  Faculty multimedia production is the norm › Both sides of the API

57.  War on IP rages  Nostalgia waves for old media  Competing storytelling schools

58.  Most students identified with one+ game characters in K-12  Leading game developers are as well known as movie directors  Most of their work and school is gamified

59. How does your life change?How does your life change? 1. Peak Higher Education 2. Health Care Nation 3. Tutor me, Siri 4. Renaissance

60. EXERCISE 1EXERCISE 1 1. Select one trend 2. Build a world around it • Think STEEP • Think campuses • Imagine your students

61. EXERCISEEXERCISE 1. Pick the most unstable, hard to predict trend. 2. Describe its polar extreme possibilities. 3. Pick another trend. 4. Do #2 on it.

62. EXERCISE Each trend one axis

63. 6. Back to campus What is your current futuring capacity? • Individuals • Practices • Local resources

64. 6. Back to campus What are your external resources? • Collaborations • Online • Professional organizations

65. How to develop • Support futures-oriented people • Try out one of these methods • Hold planning/vision sessions • Share news, fiction

66. How to develop • Ad hoc or formal group? • “ “ “ “ process? • Partner locally • “ externally

67. Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop 1. Introductions 2. Delphi method 3. Environmental scanning 4. Trend analysis 5. Scenarios 6. Implementation in your organization

68. http://bryanalexander.orghttp://bryanalexander.org bryan.alexander@gmail.combryan.alexander@gmail.com http://twitter.com/bryanalexanderhttp://twitter.com/bryanalexander

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