Published on May 12, 2009
Future S&T Forecasts Dr. James Canton CEO & Chairman GlobalFuturist.com
Institute for Global Futures Forecast Emerging Trends • Think Tank • Advise Fortune 1000 • Global Risk Analysis • Analytic Forecasting • Innovation Strategy
Forecasting Models •Proprietary Computer and Network based Analytic engines •Environmental scanning •Conduct primary and analyze secondary research
Welcome to the Extreme Future
Extreme Future: More Risk More Opportunity !A highly multidimensional world of complex trends
Challenge: Navigate Extreme Future
World of 2020 8
Top Global Risk on GDP & Multinational • Energy • Population • Food • Water • Health • Ecology • GWOT
Global Population By 2020, 95% of World’s 8 Billion People will Live in Developing Nations
Fertility Rates Dropping Total Fertility Rate by Country Fertility in Every Developed Country has Fallen Beneath the Replacement Rate of 2.1 UN 1997
An Older World
Future Productivity Crisis: More Jobs then Workers Immigration & birthrates will not keep pace with GDP demands Impact on: •Global Security •Productivity •Quality of life
US Workforce 2020 • More Jobs then Workers • Over 50% Women • One third minority • Large Hispanic population • Knowledge Enabled • Global outsourcing
By 2020: Most mega-cities in developing world—EcoFault risk
Global Megacities The World of 2020 will have 100 Megacities with more than 10 Million People Each
Possible 2020 Disruption Forecast The clash between the rich aging developed world and the poor young ethnic developing world 17
Possible 2020 Disruption Forecast Wealth gaps between not only the haves and have not nations but populations within nations like Asia & India will drive social unrest 18
Possible Disruption Forecast 2020 Current energy resources will not keep pace with population growth or GDP—strategic implications? 19
Possible 2020 Disruption Forecast Over one quarter of gross world product is made by ten cities today But this economic power may shift to Asia in the future—implications? 20
Possible 2020 Disruption Forecast Cities and planet’s carrying capacity to feed, clean, cloth, house and economically sustain 1-2 Billion more people is questionable. 21
Innovation: Key Driver of Global GDP
1/3 of US GDP is Innovation Driven
Global Innovation Economy • Key driver of competitive advantage, wealth and prosperity • Fusion of talent & science • America leads
NextGen Science Convergence
New Systems Science NBICQ Modeling Biological Metaphors in Computing Bioinfomatics In Silico Biology Genetic / BioMed Proteomics
Quantum Modeling of Nano-Materials Quantum Modeling of meta-scale nanostructured catalysts, nano- crystals, and membranes enables investigation into unique molecular forms with substantial cost savings over conventional material solutions
Knowledge-Engineering Key Properties: Living Photonic Systems as Electronic Biofoundry Mechnical Chemical Genetic Magnification Dynamic Agent Controlled Replication Material Patterning / Materials Harvest / Structural Systems “Biocomponents”
Synthetic Biology Synthetic Biology Building Blocks > Biological Systems Architectures
Conquering Disease at the Atomic Scale: Designed Care • From InSilico Biology, to Molecular Delivery, to Intracellular NanoBiology • The Evolution of Applied NanoMedicine
Life Extension: Personalized Med
Space Futures Industrialization of Space – the next Economic Paradigm Energy Harvesting Specialized Materials Space Pharma
Summary must accelerate social quot;Science innovations is next gen systems science quot;Key connection to science and quot;Direct democracy, security, economic growth, prosperity private/public coordination quot;Better
Convergence: Future of Mega Cities
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