Published on March 18, 2009
Beyond 2020: Shaping the Preferred Future ©
What Is Your Image Of The Future? ©
Top Ten Risks to Insurance Industry 1. Climate change 2. Demographic shifts 3. Catastrophic events 4. Emerging markets 5. Regulatory intervention 6. Channel distribution 7. Integration of technology 8. Securities markets 9. Legal risk 10. Geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks from Insurance Journal, March 2008 ©
Top Global Risks Davos 2009 The financial crisis 1. Slowing growth in China - below six 2. percent in 2009 The collapse of asset prices 3. Resource challenges - concerns over 4. quot;climate change-related weather events, declining water quality and availability, as well as energy” Global governance 5. from Insurance Journal, January 2009 ©
IDC Top Ten Trends for Insurance Industry 1. Fewer, larger companies – new shape 2. ERM becomes critical competency 3. Regulation globalized, rationalized, homogenized 4. Customer service one of top three investments 5. Process improvement with flat IT spending 6. Being informed key cornerstone 7. Demographic waves 8. Insurers get social networking 9. Fewer core Admin. Tech providers 10. Innovation blooms in strapped environment from Financial-Insights.com Jan. 21, 2009 ©
Ernst & Young Property/Casualty Outlook 2009 1. Redirect focus on premium pricing – reductions likely 2. Monitor claims inflation risk 3. Prepare for changes in regulatory oversight, toward centralization 4. Prepare for changes in accounting requirements 5. Address effective expense control 6. Rethink risk modeling 7. Watch for new M&A activity from Ernst & Young, Global Insurance Center, January 2009 ©
Lesson 1: The future creates the present…. ©
EXPLORE CUSTOMER RESPONSE MACRO TRENDS AFFECTING CARRIERS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 MONTHS Risk of insurance fraud due to economic downturn Increase in online insurance shoppers Eroding credit scores & continued use for rating Increasing risk from hurricanes & quot;100 year eventsquot; More sophisticated satellite imagery Telematics - increased use in cars Changing weather patterns - more severe weather events Increase in number of senior drivers Growing number of immigrants Growth of social networking tools Increasing risk of terrorist attacks Increasing risk of pandemics On Off ©
Lesson 2: Future Not a Mystery Old and Young, Diverse and Gone Global Weirding AORTA Technology Knowledge Value Economics & Politics Creating the Future ©
Lesson 3: People Will Change -40 0 2 w -74 no 6 … s 5 ial ow n …n len il s er M m oo B ls… nao iti d ra 75+ T Post ow n Generation X Millennial … …now 40-55 now 1-20 2020 ©
Age Wave In Action MALE FEMALE Millions of People 665 Days until the first Boomer turns 65 ©
27 Florida’s by 2025 States where at least 20% of The population will be elderly ©
Shopping Evaluating Communicating Gaming Sharing Learning Buying & Selling Searching Analyzing Exchanging Growing up Creating Evolving Meeting Dating Collecting Coordinating Digital Natives & Digital Immigrants Marc Prensky originated “digital native” term and this list ©
What if population stops growing? World Fertility Patterns Canada 1.6 US 2.07 Mexico 2.1 Italy 1.3 Japan 1.4 Germany 1.4 China 1.7 Iran 2.1 India 2.8 ©
Ride the Population Waves Minorities, now 1/3rd the U.S. population, are expected to become the majority in 2042. Between 2007 and 2030, the number of Washington workers over 55 years old will increase by 600% percent; those aged 16 to 54 will increase by 16%. Retire, retool, or rehire – making use of older workers’ skills at all levels Digital Natives are ready for and expect far more digitization of work processes ©
Lesson 4: Energy and Environment Tipping Points are changing everything ©
Cedar Rapids, Iowa 2008 ©
2008 IEA World Energy Outlook 50 mbd additional output needed by 2020 ©
ECO-EMBEDDED Products “Carbon Zero” credit card Insurance Products: Green home, commercial, auto, usage-based rates Trendwatching.com ©
Lesson 5: AORTA Technology Rules ©
A Bit of Intelligence Desk Top circa 2001 = Cell Phone circa 2008 = Implant circa 2025? ©
UCSD: PC of 2015 One Hundred Million Pixels Connected at 10Gbps ©
A Survey from TrendWatching® Trendwatching.com ©
People formerly known as consumers It’s only just begun Based on Trendwatching.com ©
Nanotechnology Not just small things, but things with different properties because of nanoscale ©
Konarka Technologies, Technology Review July/August 2004 © NanoSolar.com
Nanobatteries Altairnano ©
Lesson 6: Knowledge Value Economy Rapid Debt Innovation Drag Technology Convergence It’s what Global Product or Learning Service Competition Knows ©
Three Future Questions What is Probable? What is Possible? What is Preferred? ©
Paradigm: The way we do things around here We should move From… We should move To… ©
Some Industry Opportunities Accounting for Demographic Changes Sooner: Aging & Minority Customers (& workforce) Digital Natives Environmental Risk Management: Many organizations lack a bird’s eye view of their exposure to the threats they face and their cumulative liabilities. – The Economist Technology: Location Intelligence Hard-to-extract data being stored on legacy systems Economics& Politics: Re-thinking credit score relation to insurability Fraud risks in hard times Selling into frugality ©
The future is something we do. The future is not something that just Glen Hiemstra happens to us. Futurist.com ©
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