Published on June 24, 2013
AXA Chair Conference, London June 2013The future of agriculture in achanging worldThe future ofagriculture in achanging worldAndy JarvisAXA Chair Launch Workshop inBiosphere and Climate Impacts
The concentration ofGHGs is risingLong-term implicationsfor the climate and forcrop suitability
Historical impacts on food security% Yield impactfor wheatObserved changes in growing seasontemperature for crop growingregions,1980-2008.Lobell et al (2011)
No matter what, change is upon us
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050Crop suitability is changing
In order to meetglobal demands,we will need60-70%more foodby 2050.Food security is at risk
Source: Erb et al. (2007)•30-45% of earth’s terrestrial surface is pasture- 80% of all agricultural land•1/3 arable land used for feed crop production•70% of previously forested land in the Amazon = pasture3 Livestock and GHG
Arable land per person will decreaseYear• World Population• Arable land1950• 2,500,000,000• 0.52 ha20006,1000,000• 0.25 ha20509,000,000• 0.16 haThe arable landon the earth is~3% or 1.5billion ha
Livestock products: Developing countries arehungry for more.•Growth in animal productconsumption has increasedmore than any othercommodity group.1•Greatest increases in S andSE Asia, Latin America.-Overall meatconsumption in Chinahas quadrupled since1980 to 119lbs/person/yr.2•Economic and populationgrowth, rising per capitaincomes, urbanizationPhoto by: CGIAR
Land requirements for fooddepend on three factors:1) Population numbers2) Type of diet3) Food output per unit landKastner et al. 2012•Developed countries: high-energy diets, butlow pop. growth, high output efficiency.•Developing countries: low-energy diets, offsetby high pop. growth, low efficiency.Will dietary change override population growth as the major driver behind landrequirements?
0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1Exacerbating the yield gapFrom Licker et al, 2010Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers (e.g., inAfrica), thereby increasing the yield gap
Exacerbating the yield gapClimate change will likelypose additional difficultiesfor already resource-poorfarmers (i.e., many inAfrica), thereby increasingthe yield gap
Message 1:In the coming decades, climate changeand other global trends will endangeragriculture, food security, and rurallivelihoods.
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050Crop suitability is changing
CO2 FertilisationRosenthal et al. (2012)report ~100 %increases in root yieldunder elevated CO2Further evidence of the crop’s potential underclimate changeUnder optimal management
Agriculture responsiblefor 19-29%Part of the problem,natural source forsolutions too
020406080100120140160180200Pig Poultry Beef Milk EggskgCO2eq/kganimalprotein•Livestock alone is 10-18%3of all globalanthropogenic GHG-Other estimates as high as 51%4,5•Range arises from methodological differences-Inventories vs. life cycle assessments, Attribution of land use to livestock,Omissions, misallocations2 Livestock and GHGSource: de Vries and de Boer (2009)Range of GHG intensities for livestock commodities•Highest variation occurs forbeef, due to variety ofproduction systems.•Ruminants require morefossil energy use, emit moreCH4 per animal.6
Message 2:With new challenges also comenew opportunities.
Can we breed our way out of theproblem?
Why do we need breeding?• For starters, we have novel climates: 30% of theworld will experience novel combinations of climate
And also non-linear responses of cropsto climates•For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposedto temperatures >30˚C•In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degreeSchlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS
Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0066428Can we breed our way out of theproblem?
Current climatic constraint
What will this mean for cassava?
The Rambo root!
But what about other staples?The Rambo root versus Mr. Bean
Cassava suitability change comparedwith other staples• Cassava consistently outperforms otherstaples in terms of changes in suitability
Cassava’s role as a substitution crop• Cassava as a fallback crop under an uncertainclimate (risk management)• Cassava as the substitution crop for otherstaples more sensitive to heat and drought• Cassava as a source of increasing food andnutritional security across the continent• A rare positive story for a climate changeresearcher
Heat and drought?Not for cassavaDrought tolerance willpush adaptation upinto SahelBig gains also fromcold tolerance –despite climatechange, this continuesto be the majorconstraint globally
Drought and heat?
Consideration in breeding for CC• Inherent uncertainty in futures, BUT, temperatures willincrease, rainfall likely to change, greater variability inmany parts of the world• Climate affects multiple factors, all need to beconsidered:– Growing season timing, length of growing season– Pests and disease patterns (big gap in knowledge)– Crop distribution, affecting other non-climate related traitsand constraints – e.g. soil-related constraints– Crop physiology, crop development phases speed up etc.
Message 3:Different breeding challenges for differentcrops, in different countries – no silverbullet!
A wicked problem
Let’s talk about Wicked Solutionswick·ed (w k d)adj. wick·ed·er, wick·ed·est1. Evil by nature and in practice: "this wicked man Hitler, the repository andembodiment of many forms of soul-destroying hatred"(Winston S. Churchill).2. Playfully malicious or mischievous: a wicked prank; a critics wicked wit.3. Severe and distressing: a wicked cough; a wicked gash; wicked drivingconditions.4. Highly offensive; obnoxious: a wicked stench.5. Slang Strikingly good, effective, or skillful
Yield potential, AND yield gapAsian rice vs.African riceAsian non-rice vs.African non-riceFrom Otsukaa and Kijimab, 2010
Transformation in agriculture
Decision making in spite of uncertaintyVermeulen et al. (2013)Signal-to-noise ratioTimeIncremental Systemic Transformativet1Current variabilityt3t2t4Top-down approachesparticularly importantTransition in types of adaptationSeasonalforecasting(Case 4)Stakeholderled (Case 1)Stakeholder led (Case 2)Altitudinalgradients (Case 3)Cropsuitability(Case 4)Bottom-up approachesparticularly important
Suitability inCauca• Significant changes to2020, drastic changesto 2050• The Cauca case:reduced coffeeegrowing area andchanges in geographicdistribution. Somenew opportunities.MECETA
Adaptation entry points in maize-bean systems
Scalable climate smart technologies….
Getting to grips with climate adaptation:The right choices
Evaluating varietal adaptationVar.CariocaVar.CalimaVar.Jamapa
Likely yield with different planting dates
Modelling potential losses from extreme events with differentplanting dates
Benefits of potential adaptation options: conservation agriculture%yieldloss% water deficit
Playing out transformative adaptationin CCAFS benchmark sites in East AfricaWhen, where, how and with whom?
Where do we work?CCAFS sites Main crops Main livestock (forages)Borana(ET) Maize(96.6%)Beans(86.4%)Wheat(33.1%)Beef cattle(93.2%)Goats(77.8%)Nyando (KE) Maize(99.2%)Sorghum(73.3%)Beans(34.4%)Goats(66.9%)Chicken/hens (61.2%)Usambara (TZ) Maize(87.1%)Beans(75%)Tomatoes(29%)Chicken/hens(82.1%)Dairy cows(56.4%)Albertine Rift (UG) Cassava(78.6%)Beans(68.4%)Sweetpotatoes(59.8%)Chicken/hens(82.5%)Pigs(63.1%)
Climate smart agriculture: tacklingadoption head onRash model (Campell, 1963): Attitude towards change = number + difficulty of change made
Silvopastoral systems:A mini-revolution inColombia and CentralAmericaPiedemonte llaneroEstado inicial: Julio 17, 2007Agosto 15, 200813 mesesOctubre 22, 200815 meses
TimeUptakeofsustainableagriculturalpracticesInnovation /Identification ofpracticesPre-investment(eg, developmentfunds, climatefinance)Implementation atscale /Establishment ofinstitutionsDemonstration ofagro-economic andsustainabilitypotentialPolicy shifts and large-scale changes inpractices, livelihoodsand environmentalimpactsDemonstration offinancial /commercial viabilityand sustainabilityoutcomes
1 January 2013Leb byClimate smart villages:Key agricultural activities for managing risks
Local implementation grounded inlocal realitiesClimateresilienceBaselineAdaptedtechnologiesAdaptedtechnologies+Climate-specificmanagementAdaptedtechnologies+Climate-specificmanagement+SeasonalagroclimaticforecastsAdaptedtechnologies+Climate-specificmanagement+Seasonalagroclimaticforecasts+EnablingenvironmentNAPs andNAMAsClimate smartness
LushotoMbuziiYambaMorogoroMwitikilwaNyomboNjombeMbingaKinoleFOTF in TanzaniaAnalogue study TourVillages visited Starting pointSepukila Village:-Matengo pits: Traditional soil andwater conservation technique-Coffee nursery-StovesMasasi Village:-Water source-Fish pond-BiogasMtama Village:- Bee keeping-Market value chain socialenterprise visit- Input supply Stockists-Weather station visit- Bean trial visit- Tree nursery visitFarms of the futureJourney to Yamba’s plausible futures
Wicked solutions for climate smartagriculture• No matter what, impacts of climate change will be profound• Climate just one driver of global change in agriculture• Opportunities for re-thinking food systems, increasing efficiency• …..but no silver bullet• Wicked solutions exist, but we need to think about newinstitutional arrangements, new policies, and new investment to• Science can contribute new solutions, methods for targetting,improved understanding of priorities• The challenge is very big – reducing emissions from agriculture,ensuring adaptation
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