Foundations for a Future Orientation

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Information about Foundations for a Future Orientation

Published on June 20, 2008

Author: Gregwad

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Presents the theoretical foundations for a future orientation and describes one technique--the Futures Wheel--for helping others develop that orientation.

OverviewFoundations for Strategic Foresight

OverviewFoundations for Strategic Foresight

OverviewFoundations for Strategic Foresight

OverviewFoundations for Strategic Foresight

“Acting while there is still a choice.” –Bertrand de JouvenalFoundations for Strategic Foresight

“Planning from the future back to the present” –Marsh, McAllum & PurcellFoundations for Strategic Foresight

“Internal and external factors or trends that will impact the institution.” –McFarland & Moore, 2003Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Identifying Driving Forces S ocial T echnological E nvironmental E conomic P oliticalFoundations for Strategic Foresight

Scenario: “The description of a possible future and the corresponding path to it.” ‒ Michel GodetFoundations for Strategic Foresight

Get them to question theirFoundations for Strategic Foresight

Our Assumptions Encase us … in the Past.Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Assumption #1:It’s impossible.

I’m too busy.

Assumption # 3: It’s irrelevant.Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Is it like a Hollywood movie?Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Or more like an interactive video game?Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Foundations for Strategic Foresight

“Has God put us here as contrarians, tolanguish in discontent until the world ends?Or has God placed us at the very heart andsoul of civilization to bring forth an entirelydifferent future, one that has never beforebeen possible, through the power of ChristsCross and Resurrection?” –Christian Futurist, Jay Gary, 2003

“The constructive forces that can keep afloat inthe turbulent waters of globalization are thosewhose gaze is fixed firmly on the future ratherthan the past; those forces, inother words, that regard openingthemselves up to the future as acore element in their identity andnot as a threat.” –Athanasios N. Papathanasiou, 2004

“The only useful knowledge we have relates to the future.” – Bertrand de JouvenelFoundations for Strategic Foresight

The choices we make and theattitudes with which we approach life affect the path.

• Not predictions • Qualitative research • No more than 4 • Used to multiply optionsFoundations for Strategic Foresight

Foundations for Strategic Foresight

A tool that projects cause and effect relationships between a driving force and the changes that could ripple out from it.Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Participants discuss with their group the driving forces listed in a “Driving Forces” handout. After reading each description, they choose one driving force that their group wants to explore.Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Participants draw a circle in the middle of their poster. The wheel begins with this circle where they write their groups selected driving force.Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Participants are encouraged to think about the consequences that might flow from that driving force. What will likely be the effects of this driving force?Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Participants select one first- order effect for brainstorming. What is likely to happen as a result? Continue this process until all three first-order effects have two second-order effects.Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Repeat the procedure to get two third-order effects for each second-order effect. When the participants are done, their diagram should have 22 circles.Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Participants are encouraged to discuss with their group any conclusions or overall lessons learned. They should jot these down so they can share them with the larger group.Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Foundations for Strategic Foresight

• Organize and synthesizeFoundations for Strategic Foresight

• Organize and synthesize • Uncover the layers of changeFoundations for Strategic Foresight

• Organize and synthesize • Uncover the layers of change • Explore consequencesFoundations for Strategic Foresight

• Organize and synthesize • Uncover the layers of change • Explore consequences • Generate creative ideasFoundations for Strategic Foresight

• Organize and synthesize • Uncover the layers of change • Explore consequences • Generate creative ideas • Anticipate unforeseen consequencesFoundations for Strategic Foresight

• Organize and synthesize • Uncover the layers of change • Explore consequences • Generate creative ideas • Anticipate unforeseen consequences • Test ideas before implementationFoundations for Strategic Foresight

• Organize and synthesize • Uncover the layers of change • Explore consequences • Generate creative ideas • Anticipate unforeseen consequences • Test ideas before implementation • Create scenarios everyone can understandFoundations for Strategic Foresight

“Would that they were wise, that they understood this, that they would discern their future!” – Deuteronomy 32:29Foundations for Strategic Foresight

For more information, please contact . . . Dr. Greg Waddell Email: DrGregWaddell@LeadStrategic.com Blog: http://www.LeadStrategic.com/ Twtter: @DrGregWaddell FB: DrGregWaddellFoundations for Strategic Foresight

Dr. Gregory S. Waddell How to Do greg@envoycm.org Second a Futures Wheel Go 10, www.SpiritOfOrganization.com 20, or 30 Order years out Effects Third Order Effects Use colored First markers to indicate Order serious threats and Effects promising opportunities Include some WAR DISASTERS wild cards COUPS MEDICAL DISCOVERIE S OTHER FORECASTING TOOLS • Environmental scanning • Modeling • Scenario analysis • QUEST • Cross-impact matrices • Simulation • Delphic surveys • Brainstorming • Strategic Planning • Historical analogyAdapted from Coates, J. (2004). How to do a futures study. Washington, DC: Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc.

Works Cited Dahle, K. (2003). “55 Key Works: A Guide to Futures Literature.” In R. A. Slaughter (Ed.), Knowledge Base of Futures Studies CD-ROM (Vol. 1,). Queensland, Australia: Foresight International. de Jouvenel, B. (1972). “On the nature of the future.” In A. Toffler (Ed.), The Futurists (pp. 277-83). NY: Random House. Marsh, N., McAllum, M., & Purcell, D. (2002). “Why Strategic Foresight?” In The Power of Standing in the Future. Victoria, Australia: Crown Content. McFarland, D., & Moore, J. (2003). Stakeholders Conference on Strategic Planning. Arkansas State University. Accessed October 16, 2005 from http://asunews.astate.edu/Oct%2020%202003%20Stakeholders%20Conf.htm Michel Godet Cited in Dahle, K. (2003). “55 Key Works: A Guide to Futures Literature.” In R. A. Slaughter (Ed.), Knowledge Base of Futures Studies CD-ROM (Vol. 1,). Queensland, Australia: Foresight International. Papathanasiou, A. N. (2004). “Anchored in the future, Globalization and church consciousness: An orthodox perspective.” The Ecumenical Review, 56(2), 226-233.Foundations for Strategic Foresight

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