Forests, fire and climate change dynamics

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Information about Forests, fire and climate change dynamics

Published on October 14, 2014

Author: CIFOR



This CIFOR session of the 2014 IUFRO World Congress focusd on the latest scientific understanding of climate change and future global fire regimes, feedback on the global carbon balance, expected human and environmental impacts, and potential management strategies to mitigate negative impacts.

1. Climate Change and Tropical Forest Fires: Impacts and Adaptation Hety Herawati, Bruno Locatelli & Christopher Martius - CIFOR

2. Tropical Forests  44 % of the world forests are tropical forest (1.768 billion hectares, Grainger 2008)  This ecosystem  e.g . primary tropical moist forest is the most species-rich forest (FAO 2010)  Produce ecosystem services e.g. • Provide forest products e.g. timber, food, medicines and fuelwood • Regulate water and micro climate • Sequester carbon/ mitigate climate change

3. Climate Change  Climate is changing. At the end of the 21st century (2081–2100), IPCC AR5 predicts: • Global mean surface temperature to increase 1 oC - 3.7 oC, compared to 1986–2005 • Precipitation will change • Extreme weather & climate events (e.g. drought, cyclone ) characteristics will change

4. Methods  Review literatures on climate change and forest fires in the tropics and its adaptation actions (Web of Knowledge, Google Scholar, library collections, authors’collections)  Develop climate change, forest fire and adaptation framework • Use iMODELER-qualitative model to visualize and analyze interconnections between fire factors; and impacts of adaptation actions on fire spread.

5. Forest Fire, Climate Change & Adaptation

6. Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire in the Tropics, literatures review Climate change may increase fire activity Globally: CC may cause fire activity increase e.g. fire occurrence and area burned increase (Fauria et al. 2011; Flannigan et al. 2009; Scholze et al. 2006; Delire et al. 2008; Liu et al. 2010) South America  Fire probability may increase up to 2070-2100 (Krawchuck et al. 2009; Moritz et al. 2012; Scholze et al. 2006; Liu et al. 2010). e.g. Amazon: up to 2050 and 2100 • fire danger (Cochrane and Barber 2009; Golding and Betts 2008), frequency (Cochrane and Laurance 2008; Laurance & Williamson 2001) and severity (Laurance & Williamson 2001) may increase • The forests may be more susceptible (Silverstrini et al 2011) to burning more frequently (Cochrane and Laurance By Yayat Ruchiat 2008)

7. Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire in the Tropics, literatures review (Contd) Africa  Some parts of Central and West Africa may experience fire frequency increase up to 2080 (Delire et al. 2008) Asia & Pacific  Some parts of South Asia and Southeast Asia Insular may experience fire probability increase in 2070-2099 (Krawchuk et al. 2009) e.g. • Indonesia: simulation at 2 sites shows that fire hazard may increase in 2070-2100 (Herawati and Santoso 2011)  Tropical Australia: fire danger may be higher in 2030 (Williams et al. 2001)

8. Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire in the Tropics, literatures review (Contd) There are still some uncertainties. There will be  areas with little or no fire activity change (Fauria et al. 2011; Flannigan et al. 2009; Moritz et al. 2012) and  areas with fire activity decreases (Flannigan et al. 2009; Krawchuk et al. 2009; Moritz et al. 2012; Scholze et al. 2006)

9. Climate Change, Forest Fires & Adaptation iMODELER- qualitative (Direct Impacts)

10. Forest Fire, Climate Change & Adaptation

11. S h o r t t e r m Impacts of Fire Factors on Fire Spread Insight matrix - iMODELER-qualitative

12. Adapting to Future Fire Danger Increase, literature review 1. Prevent fire spread to flammable forests By Patrice Levang  Establish wider fire breaks (Guariguata et al., 2008) between forest compartments and between fire-dependent agriculture lands and fire sensitive forests (ACC)  Enhance fire-fighting capacity (e.g. fire detection and fire suppression capacity) (Barlow and Peres 2004; Cochrane 2003; Keenan 2012 ; Sedjo 2010; Nepstad et al. 2001; Seppälä et al. 2009) 2. Transform non-forestry activities into more fire smart practices  not using fire during high fire danger seasons (Goldammer and de-Ronde 2004)  resolve conflicts (e.g. on land use, tenure and right) through negotiations and facilitations (Suyanto et al. 2005)  establish rules and enabling factors for communities to participate in fire management activities (e.g. community based fire management (Goldammer and de- Ronde, 2004))

13. 3. Enhance forest fuel management  Improve forest structures and compositions • Plant tree species, varieties and provenances that are predicted to be able to adapt to future climate (Keenan 2012; Guariguata et al. 2008; Sedjo 2010; Barlow and Peres 2004) • Control invasive flammable plant species (Heikkila et al. 2010; Brooks and Lusk 2008) and monitor the impacts of climate change on the species • Practice low impact logging (Tacconi et al. 2007; Guariguata et al. 2008) • Intensify liana removal (Guariguata et al. 2008) • Regular forest and understory thinning (Keenan 2012) • Plant mix and less flammable tree species Guariguata et al. 2008) • Practice salvage logging (Sedjo 2010)

14. 4. Reduce and monitor human-caused ignitions  Prohibit fire use in fire-sensitive forests (Herawati and Santoso 2011)  Promote alternatives to fire use (Cochrane 2003; Nepstad et al. 2001; Suyanto et al. 2005)  Close access to high fire danger forests and forbid fire use during the driest months e.g. strong El Nino years (Barlow and Peres 2004; Adeney et al. 2009)

15. 5. i. Improve social conditions, education and community involvement in fire management  The customary uses of fire should not be prohibited. The adaptation of these traditional practices to future climate conditions should be encouraged (e.g. (1) provide education, training, and empowerment programmes for improving understanding e.g. on fire use and risks, climate change impacts on wildland fires; (2) encourage communities to involved in sustainable fire management activities; (3) communicate fire related policies with communities (Seppälä et al., 2009))  Improve fire use by communities e.g. by (1) build on and exchange communities experiences (Apusigah 2007); (2) established / enhanced fire related regulations (including customary laws) and improve their implementations e.g. using FDRS (Adeney et al. 2009; Barlow and Peres 2004).  Use participatory approaches Two success stories: (1) In Nepal, community-based forest management resulted in less “slash and-burn” practice and less forest fire occurrences (Niraula et al. 2013); (2) In Gambia and Senegal, transferring responsibilities of forest related use and protection to local communities result in less burned areas (Goldammer and de-Ronde 2004)

16. 5. ii. Improve and share knowledge  Explore and exchange relevant local knowledge and experiences (Apusigah 2007; Herawati and Santoso 2011). Some examples of local knowledge and experiences: (1) fire break establishment around farms and forests in Ghana (Appiah et al. 2010); (2) customary laws on fire breaks establishment and setting time when fire can be used in Dayak tribe, Indonesia (Wibowo et al. 1997)  Translate scientific, research and technical materials into more easy to understand materials and make them easier to access (including by communities). • Tools assessing climate change and variability impacts on forest & fire: vegetation and fire related models; FDRS and remote sensing (ACC) • Guidelines and information on forest and fire management, and climate change adaptation: C&I Sustainable Forest Management from FSC, ITTO & CIFOR; Guidelines for managing forest fire from ITTO & FAO; Adaptation Policy Framework from UNDP (ACC) By Alain Compost

17. 5. iii. Improve land-use planning and policies  Use precautionary principles in planning and developing policies on land use, e.g. consider the impacts of • climate change on human activities in the landscape. For example drought conditions have triggered burning activities for clearing land to establish pastures and crops in the Amazon (Flannigan et al. 2009) • land allocations (e.g. for charcoal pit, agriculture activities, settlement, road (Alencar et al., 2006)) on forest fires. 5. iv. Enhance fire regulations and enforcement efforts  Fire policies and regulations should address regional specificities, consider local practices and knowledge and take predicted plausible climate change impacts on forest and fire into account  Improve policy implementations: enhance law enforcement (Barlow and Peres 2004; Cochrane 2003; Herawati and Santoso 2011; Seppälä et al. 2009) and strengthen institutions and inter institutional coordination (Herawati and Santoso 2011 By Kate Evans

18. S h o r t t e r m Impacts of Adaptation Measures on Fire Spread Insight matrix – iMODELER-qualitative

19. Thank you Hety Herawati

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