Forecasting tricks for Vail, CO (March 12, 2013)

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Information about Forecasting tricks for Vail, CO (March 12, 2013)
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Published on March 13, 2013

Author: findOpensnow

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Overview of weather forecasting for the Vail Valley presented at the season's fourth Avalanche Awareness Seminar on March 12, 2013.

Forecasting tricks for the Vail Valley Meteorologist Joel GratzPhoto: Connor Walberg,ActionPhotoSchool.com

Worst Year Best Year

Colorado SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of NormalMar 11, 2013 Laramie and North Platte 78 South Platte Fort Collins Yampa and White ! ! " $ # 76 ! ! Steamboat Springs 78 OurayCurrent Snow Water BoulderEquivalent (SWE) Upper Colorado ! ! 69Basin-wide Percent Headwaters Denverof 1981-2010 Median ( ! [ Glenwood Springs ! ! unavailable * 76 <50% " $ # 70 Aspen! ! 50 - 69% ! ! Grand Junction 70 - 89% Colorado Springs 90 - 109% Gunnison ! ! 110 - 129% 79 ! ! Gunnison Arkansas 130 - 149% Pueblo >=150% San Miguel, ! ! Dolores, Ouray 75 Animas and ! ! " $ # 25* Data unavailable at time San Juan of posting or measurement is not representative at this time of year 85 81 Alamosa ! !Provisional DataSubject to Revision ! ! Durango Upper Rio Grande Miles 0 10 20 40 60 80 100 The snow water equivalent percent of normal represents the current Prepared by the USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin Portland, Oregon http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/gis/ compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on Based on data from http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports/ the first reading of the day (typically 00:00). Science contact: Jim.Marron@por.usda.gov 503 414 3047

AverageLastyear This year

VailJanuary 31, 2013

VailJanuary 31, 2013

VailJanuary 31, 2013

My calling since age 5...Joel Gratz, Blue Mountain, PA, 1986. Photo: Steve Gratz Joel Gratz, Aspen Highlands, CO, 2010. Photo: Ted Mahon

CopperOctober 31, 2012

CMH Galena British ColumbiaDecember 29, 2012

THANK YOU!!!!!

THANK YOU!!!!!December 2007 28 person email list 2008-2009 500 person email list 2009-2010 245,000 pageviews 2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews 2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews 2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!December 2007 28 person email list 2008-2009 500 person email list 2009-2010 245,000 pageviews 2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews 2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews 2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!December 2007 28 person email list 2008-2009 500 person email list 2009-2010 245,000 pageviews 2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews 2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews 2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!December 2007 28 person email list 2008-2009 500 person email list 2009-2010 245,000 pageviews 2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews 2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews 2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!December 2007 28 person email list 2008-2009 500 person email list 2009-2010 245,000 pageviews 2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews 2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews 2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!December 2007 28 person email list 2008-2009 500 person email list 2009-2010 245,000 pageviews 2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews 2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews 2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!December 2007 28 person email list 2008-2009 500 person email list 2009-2010 245,000 pageviews 2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews 2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews 2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

THANK YOU!!!!!December 2007 28 person email list 2008-2009 500 person email list 2009-2010 245,000 pageviews 2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews 2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews 2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

How this presentation will help you:

How this presentation will help you: 1) Learn snow forecasting tricks for the Vail Valley

How this presentation will help you: 1) Learn snow forecasting tricks for the Vail Valley 2) Understand how to interpret the current weather situation

Is Colorado the toughest state to forecast? Joel Gratz | Meadow Mountain, CO | 2009-03-11

La Nina storm tracks Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder

El Nino storm tracks Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder

Normal Water Temperatures

La Nada storm tracks Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high1

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high1 2

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high1 2 3

Weather Happens when moist air gets high“Weather happens” when moist air gets high.“Weather happens” when moist air gets high.“Weather happens” when moist air gets high.“Weather happens” when moist air gets high.“Weather happens” when moist air gets high.

Where’s the moisture?

Where’s the moisture?Lots of moisture (ocean source)

Where’s the moisture?Lots of moisture (ocean source) OK moisture (ocean + plants)

Where’s the moisture? Less moisture (land source)Lots of moisture (ocean source) OK moisture (ocean + plants)

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high1

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high1 2

Weather Happenswhen moist air gets high1 2 3

Five ways to get high

Five ways to get high C is for convection.

Five ways to get high C is for convection. L is for low pressure.

Five ways to get high C is for convection. L is for low pressure. O is for orographic.

Five ways to get high C is for convection. L is for low pressure. O is for orographic. U is for undercut.

Five ways to get high C is for convection. L is for low pressure. O is for orographic. U is for undercut. D is for dynamic.

Pleaaasssseeeee Rememberorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographicsorographics

Mountains = Precipitation Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = PrecipitationPark Range Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = PrecipitationPark Range Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park RangeFlattops Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park RangeFlattops Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range FlattopsGrandMesa Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range FlattopsGrandMesa Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range FlattopsGrandMesa Elk Mtns Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range FlattopsGrandMesa Elk Mtns Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range FlattopsGrandMesa Elk Mtns N&SSan Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range FlattopsGrandMesa Elk Mtns N&SSan Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range FlattopsGrandMesa Elk Mtns N&S EastSan Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range FlattopsGrandMesa Elk Mtns N&S EastSan Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range FlattopsGrandMesa Elk Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S EastSan Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range FlattopsGrandMesa Elk Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S EastSan Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range FlattopsGrandMesa Elk Sawatch Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S EastSan Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range FlattopsGrandMesa Elk Sawatch Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S EastSan Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Ten Mile &Grand MosquitoMesa Elk Sawatch Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S EastSan Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Ten Mile &Grand MosquitoMesa Elk Sawatch Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S EastSan Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Gore Ten Mile &Grand MosquitoMesa Elk Sawatch Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S EastSan Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Gore Ten Mile &Grand MosquitoMesa Elk Sawatch Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S EastSan Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Indian Peaks / RMNP Flattops Gore Ten Mile &Grand MosquitoMesa Elk Sawatch Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S EastSan Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

The best (upslope) wind direction Steamboat RMNP Powderhorn Summit Co. Vail Aspen Crested Butte Telluride Silverton Wolf Creek

Vail: Northwest winds

Vail: Northwest winds Vail

Vail: Northwest winds Vail Beaver Creek

Vail: Northwest winds G or e Ra ng e Vail Beaver Creek

Vail: Northwest winds G or e Ra ng e Vail Beaver Creek Vail Pass

Vail: Northwest winds G or e Ra ng e Vail Beaver Creek Vail Pass

Vail: Northwest winds G or e Ra ng e Vail Beaver Creek Vail Pass

Beaver Creek: West winds G or e Ra ng e Vail Beaver Creek Vail Pass

Beaver Creek: West winds G or e Ra ng e Vail Beaver Creek Vail Pass

Snow to liquid ratio

Snow to liquid ratio10” snow = 1” liquid --> heavy snow

Snow to liquid ratio10” snow = 1” liquid --> heavy snow15” snow = 1” liquid --> average

Snow to liquid ratio10” snow = 1” liquid --> heavy snow15” snow = 1” liquid --> average20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow

VailJanuary 31, 2013

Moisture in the air 10F 0F Temperature >> colder

http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/primer/primer.htm

20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow

20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow• Lots of moisture

20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow• Lots of moisture• Mountain top temperatures between about 0-10F

20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow• Lots of moisture• Mountain top temperatures between about 0-10F• Not too much wind

Radar

Radar

Radar

Jamming the RadarBeam is blocked bythe first mountain andcan’t “see” to thesecond mountain. 0.5 deg

Overshooting the snowIf the radar is too far 20,000 ft Vailaway, the beam canovershoot the snow 15,000 ft 12,000 ft

Overshooting the snow Denver AirportGrandMesa Pueblo http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Overshooting the snow Steamboat http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Overshooting the snow Steamboat RMNP http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Overshooting the snow Steamboat RMNP Summit Co. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Overshooting the snow Steamboat RMNP Vail Summit Co. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Overshooting the snow Steamboat RMNP Vail Summit Co. Aspen http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Overshooting the snow Steamboat RMNP Vail Summit Co. Aspen Crested Butte http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Overshooting the snow Steamboat RMNP Vail Summit Co. Aspen Crested ButteTelluride http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Overshooting the snow Steamboat RMNP Vail Summit Co. Aspen Crested ButteTelluride Wolf Creek http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

Surface Observations

Webcams! March 11, 2013 8pm

Webcams! March 11, 2013 9pm

Webcams! March 11, 2013 10pm

What’s the forecast?To theinternet!

Favorite Sites Twisterdata.comMeteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.htmlAvalanche.state.co.us/index.php

Joel Gratzjoel@opensnow.com

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