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Information about Final_Dissertation

Published on June 6, 2010

Author: jiwant


Final Term Dissertation : Final Term Dissertation Project Head Dr. Rajeshwar Nath Students Group Member Pankaj Kumar Jiwant Kumar Kamaljit Singha Jitendra singh chauhan Amit Kumar Sharad Tiwari Shalini Tripathi Seema Forex Management : Forex Management Scope of Forex reserve utilization for the infrastructure Problem of Forex : Problem of Forex Classical method of foreign exchange management. Less diversification. Cost associated with foreign exchange. Forex risk management. Largest Foreign Reserves in 2009 : Largest Foreign Reserves in 2009 Slide 6: CURRENT FOREX RESERVE OF INDIA Dollar index.. : Dollar index.. Slide 8: Rakesh Mohan Committee Report (1996) made us conscious both of the worsening deficiencies of our infrastructure and of the mammoth investment requirements for overcoming the problem, the financing of infrastructure development has become central to our development policies. Policy trigger LITERATURE REVIEW : LITERATURE REVIEW Rural Infrastructure: Issues And Perspectives Identified lack of funding in Infrastructure development in India Recommended one of the source can be forex Panmanabhan Nayar & Deepak Kumar ICFAI Publication Literature review..cont : Literature review..cont INFRASTRUCTURE AND POLICY ISSUES Critically discussed the infrastructure policy and suggested sea change in the policy to trigger the infrastructure growth. Suggested deployment of excess reserve in infradevelopment Author Farsat Shaif-Ullah and Stephen A. Roberts Project Objective: : Project Objective: Realistic & compliance approach Slide 12: GDP Growth Research Methodology : Research Methodology Exploratory Data Collection: 1. Secondary 2. Primary Statistical Tools : Statistical Tools Correlation Regression Analysis Table-1 : Analysis Table-1 Slide 16: Analysis Table-2 & 3 Graph-1 : Graph-1 Findings & Inference : Findings & Inference This table explains relationship of Infrastructure expenditure with foreign exchange reserves, foreign institutional investment, foreign direct investment and balance of payments. As clearly seen in last ten years data since the government starts increasing infrastructure expenditure foreign exchange reserves grow rapidly. The reserves, which stood at US$ 5.8 billion at end-March 1991 increased gradually to US$ 25.2 billion by end-March 1995. The reserves increased to US $ 281.3 billion by end-September 2009. Findings & inference : Findings & inference Finding 1:Its correlation coefficient r12 (infra & forex) is equal to +0.77. which means foreign exchange reserve has been positively correlated with infrastructure expenditure. we assumed data of Infra exp. in 2009-2010 only 600 million us dollar which propel 170880 us dollar foreign exchange reserve as in comparison with 2008-09 reserves. This predicted with trend line or Regression analysis. Findings 2: value of R12 (R square) is 0.60. It is indicates that 60 % of change in foreign exchange reserve is due to change in infra expenditure. it make our predicted value more realistic. Findings & Inference : Findings & Inference Findings 3: As r14 (Infra & FDI) is equal to +0.69. FDI and infra exp. have positive correlation. FDI investment will require not only good infrastructure but it also impulses govt. to build new infra. Findings 4: R14 is 0.48. It indicates FDI has almost 50% dependency over infra exp. and significantly move in similar direction. As earlier mentioned only increase in 140m US dollar will attract 60000 m Us dollar in our country. Reserves accretion during the entire reform period from 1991 onwards reveals that the increase in foreign exchange reserves has been facilitate by an increase in net foreign direct investment (FDI) from US $ 129 million in 1991-92 to US$ 14.1 billion in 2009-10 (April-September). Graph-4 : Graph-4 Findings & Inference : Findings & Inference Findings 5: r15 (Forex reserve & BOP) is equal to +30. There is a positive correlation between BOP and infra expenditure where value of r shows feeble relationship. Findings 6: R15 is .09. It indicates our infra is still below the adequate level to enhance our export and deliver enough foreign exchange for better BOP position. BOP has shown only 10 % dependency on it. We all acquainted with the fact a huge investment in infra will leads to small growth in export because we are in initial level of developing nation. Findings & Inference : Findings & Inference Findings 7: Correlation coefficient (forex reserves & FDI) r24 is +0.92. Foreign exchange reserves and FDI has most significant positive relation among all the variables. which is very close to perfect correlation although all other variables also affecting foreign exchange reserves simultaneously. Findings 8: R square valve is at 0.85. It indicates 85% dependency of it on inflow of FDI. Data of FDI inflow shows it has constantly growing from 97million US dollar to 281million dollar now. India’s foreign exchange reserves have grown significantly since 1991. Findings & Inference : Findings & Inference Findings 9 : Coefficient of correlation r25 (Forex reserve & BOP) is +0.77. Forex reserves is positively correlated with BOP. It shows significant correlation. Findings 10 : R25 value is 0.60. R25 value indicates almost 60% change in reserves is predicated with the help of BOP or 60% dependency on it. Graph-7 : Graph-7 Findings & Inference : Findings & Inference Findings 11: Correlation coefficient is (r34) +0.09. FDI will attract FII but it has not significant effect on FII. Findings 12: R34 is equal to 0.008 It indicates estimated value of FII on FDI has lower level of dependency. It has 01% dependency on FDI. FII and FDI have insignificant positive correlation due to their distinguish nature. One is come to invest for long run to get the constant but adequate return where other come for short term heightened profit on their investment. Findings & Inference : Findings & Inference Findings 15: Correlation coefficient ( FDI & BOP ) r45 is +0.74. There is positive relation between BOP and FDI. It shows significant relation and similar movement. Findings 14: R45 is 0.45. It indicates BOP is depend up to 45%. If draw trend line we will able to predicted it correctly up to 45%. Findings & inference : Findings & inference Finding 17: r13 is equal to -0.20. FII is negatively related with infra exp. Finding 18: value of R13 is 0.043. It is showing only 4% dependency on it. Infrastructure projects are long-term strategic investment decision for generating future yield. Hence, it is not much concern for us because we all know better infrastructure will pay off in market and able to attract lots of FII too in future. Conclusion : Conclusion Expenditure of infrastructure is a boost for Export and FDI inflow Boost in export will increase the forex of India Greater inflow of FDI will increase the forex reserve of the country Cont... : Cont... India Foreign exchange reserve need revamp. Surplus foreign exchange is in our treasury There is a positive relationship between infrastructure expenditure and flow of foreign exchange reserves Suggestion : Suggestion There should be sole governing body for forex management. India should follow global acceptable forex reserves adequacy norms. Indian foreign exchange management authority should go for investing higher yield investment avenue for counter rise treasury cost. Cont. : Cont. India should invest Forex in infrastructure. Diversify its foreign exchange basket. Reduces Dollar dependency. Support foreign trade with Asian and African countries in Rupees. Reference : Reference Reserve bank of India Security and Exchange Board of India Foreign Exchange Promotion Board Economic Survey 2009 Publication Division of India Web sites and Books

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