Fairfax Housing Report 2008

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Information about Fairfax Housing Report 2008
Real Estate

Published on February 28, 2009

Author: callteamworks

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis Reported for 2008

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis December 2008 Data Prepared by Senior Consultant, Rosemary deButts (MIRM) FULTON RESEARCH  AND CONSULTING, INC. 11350 Random Hills Road Suite 330 Fairfax, VA  22030   540.338.2212 Direct 1.703.673.9950 Fax  www.fultonresearch.com rdebutts@fultonresearch.com

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis Executive Summary Black font represents a positive indicator, red is negative City Sales Month's Supply Inventory Median Sales Price Average DOMP Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Fairfax 1,170 34% 33% 4.7 ‐16% ‐41% $320,000 0% ‐26% 95 0% ‐10% Alexandria 207 25% 28% 5.0 ‐17% $302,000 ‐8% ‐28% 108 10% 0% Annandale 51 ‐9% 11% 5.5 40% $290,700 ‐1% ‐33% 99 5% ‐23% Burke 56 51% 60% 3.3 ‐35% $290,000 ‐9% ‐26% 69 ‐31% ‐37% Centreville 98 34% 51% 3.8 ‐42% $275,000 0% ‐18% 79 ‐8% ‐19% Chantilly 22 38% 69% 4.3 7% $264,000 ‐4% ‐16% 65 ‐32% ‐32% Fairfax 113 18% ‐2% 6.0 4% $380,000 ‐3% ‐18% 97 29% 0% Falls Church 122 47% 54% 4.0 ‐24% $312,500 ‐2% ‐30% 101 15% 20% Great Falls 13 63% ‐48% 12.3 ‐42% $1,070,000 ‐3% ‐18% 147 ‐31% ‐22% Herndon 118 28% 76% 3.3 ‐9% $242,000 1% ‐41% 86 ‐22% ‐17% Lorton 56 65% 155% 4.1 ‐34% $333,000 ‐10% ‐2% 89 ‐17% ‐15% McLean 50 61% 4% 7.0 38% $590,000 ‐26% ‐19% 102 ‐23% ‐4% Oakton 15 150% 36% 5.8 ‐47% $700,000 119% 8% 135 75% 80% Reston 80 29% 11% 3.7 ‐49% $274,000 ‐4% ‐25% 79 ‐6% ‐28% Springfield 113 38% 69% 4.4 7% $305,000 2% ‐25% 96 12% ‐18% Vienna 56 93% 2% 5.3 9% $563,920 ‐16% ‐2% 109 10% 15% Source:  MRIS Twelve Month Trend (as shown by blue lines on the following pages); positive indicators shown in dark blue type Total Sales UP December's sales were 107% higher than January  Detached Sales UP Increased 47.1% in December after five consecutive months of declines Attached Sales UP Up 69% year over year but dowm 13.2% from high in June Condo Sales  UP Increased six of twelve months in 2008 Median Sales Price Down Down 26% and not this low since sometime in 2003 Avg Close Price:  Detached Down Down 25% year over year and ‐$77,000 since the 2008 high in March Avg Close Price:  Attached Down Down 27% and ‐$105,277 on a year over year basis Avg Close Price:  Condos Down Declined 19% just since January (‐$52,617) Close Price to List Price % Flat 2008 average equals 92%; ratio exceeded 90% all year Supply of Inventory (MSI) DOWN The MSI has not been this low (4.7 months) since March of 2007 Days on Market (DOMP) DOWN No change from November but fell below 100 days in seven months of 2008 Short Sales, Foreclosure Solds Up December's sales were 213% higher than the low point in January Short Sales, Foreclosure Listings Up Represented 19.4% of the total county‐wide listings in December Page 2 of 17

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis Notes concerning the data in this analysis 1. Some cities are combined to conserve space:  Fairfax Station and Clifton are included in Fairfax statistics; Oak Hill is part of Herndon; Kingstowne is part of  Alexandria; Baileys Crossroads, Arlington, and Merrifield addresses are part of Annandale; Mason Neck and Fort Belvoir are included in Lorton; and Dunn  Loring is included in Vienna statistics. 2. As of October 31, 2008, list price refers to quot;original list pricequot;. 3. House types excluded from this analysis include quot;bed & breakfastquot;, quot;mobilequot;, quot;otherquot;, quot;garage/park spacequot;, quot;house of worshipquot;, quot;dwelling w/rentalquot;, quot;double  widequot;, quot;vacation homequot;, or quot;vacation rentalquot;.  4. Year‐to‐Date price stratification analysis added November 30, 2008. 5. Sales and listings with foreclosure/short sale designations as a percentage of total sales and total listings analysis added November 30, 2008. 6. As of December 31, 2008, listings includes the quot;activequot;, quot;contingency/kick outquot;, quot;contingency/no kickoutquot;, and quot;app regquot; statuses.  Listings  excludes the quot;contractquot;, quot;expiredquot; and quot;withdrawnquot; statuses. 7. As of December 31, 2008, an analysis of the foreclosures and short sales by subdivision was added. Page 3 of 17

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis Existing Home Sales/Median Sales Prices 2000/2008 Year Total Sales Median Sales Price Units % Change $ % Change 2000 19,894 $209,000 2001 21,181 6.5% $238,000 13.9% 2002 22,303 5.3% $275,000 15.5% 2003 24,221 8.6% $315,000 14.5% 2004 25,717 6.2% $385,000 22.2% 2005 23,114 ‐10.1% $479,195 24.5% 2006 16,314 ‐29.4% $470,000 ‐1.9% 2007 13,557 ‐16.9% $459,990 ‐2.1% 2008 13,378 ‐1.3% $373,238 ‐18.9% Source:  MRIS  Existing Home Sales and Median Sales Prices:  2000 ‐ 2008 28,000 $500,000 $479,195 $470,000 Sales $459,990 25,717 26,000 Median Sales Price 24,221 $450,000 24,000 23,114 22,303 Median Sales Price Total Annual Sales 21,181 22,000 $400,000 19,894 $385,000 20,000 $373,238 $350,000 18,000 16,314 $315,000 16,000 $300,000 13,557 $275,000 13,378 14,000 $250,000 $238,000 12,000 $209,000 10,000 $200,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Page 4 of 17

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis YTD Existing Home Sales Price Stratification Close Price 2007 2008 3,500 < $200K 219 1,122 3,046 $200s 1,606 2,351 2,912 3,000 $300s 3,046 2,609 2,609 $400s 2,912 1,643 2,500 2,351 $500s 2,052 1,032 2007 Total YTD Sales 2,052 $600s 1,306 626 2,000 2008 $700s 781 398 1,643 1,606 $800s 478 219 1,500 1,306 $900s 302 101 1,122 1,032 $1Ms 748 332 1,000 781 > $2M 110 71 626 478 398 500 302 219 219 101 2007 vs. 2008 Variance 0 < $200K 412.3% < $200K $200s $300s $400s $500s $600s $700s $800s $900s $200s 46.4% Source:  MRIS $300s ‐14.3% $400s ‐43.6% The largest percentage growth in sales in 2008 compared to the same time in 2007 has been among listings priced less than  $200,000 (+400%).  In fact, every price category has declined except for those listings priced below $300,000. $500s ‐49.7% $600s ‐52.1% $700s ‐49.0% $800s ‐54.2% $900s ‐66.6% $1Ms ‐55.6% > $2M ‐35.5% 0 #DIV/0! Page 5 of 17

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis Monthly Sales (Last Twelve Months) Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 34.5% 1,600 1,487 1,500 Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 32.7% 1,355 1,392 1,400 1,326 12 Month High:  Jun 08 1,487 1,257 1,300 1,170 12 Month Low:  Jan 08 565 1,158 Monthly Sales 1,200 1,064 2008 Average 1,115 1,100 998 2007 Average 1,131 1,000 900 736 Sales in December were 107% higher than  800 870 they were in January and the 12‐month  700 565 trend is up.  After 3 consecutive months of  600 declines, the total sales jumped 35% over  500 November's results. Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Total Sales 225 High Sales:  Alexandria 207 207 200 Low Sales: Great Falls 13 175 Monthly Sales Alexandria typically records the most sales  150 122 in a given month.  In December,  113 113 125 118 98 Alexandria's sales represented 18% of the  100 80 total.  The more affluent areas of Great  75 56 56 56 51 Falls, McLean and Oakton typically post the  50 50 fewest sales. 22 15 13 25 0 Source:  MRIS Page 6 of 17

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis Median Sales Price (Last Twelve Months) $440,000 Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 0.0% Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐25.6% $420,000 $412,000 12 Month High:  Jun 08 $412,000 $399,900 $397,000 $400,000 12 Month Low:  Dec 08 $320,000 Average Close Price $405,000 2008 Average $373,238 $395,000 $399,000 $379,950 $375,000 $380,000 2007 Average $454,782 $360,000 $350,000 Median sales prices are trending way down  in Fairfax County.  There was no change in  $340,000 December from the low posted in  $320,000 November and the on a year‐over‐year  $320,000 $326,000 basis, the MSP was down 26%.  Median  $320,000 prices in the low $300s have not occurred  $300,000 since the 2003 time frame. Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Median Sales Price $1,200,000 $1,070,000 $1,100,000 High MSP:  Great Falls $1,070,000 $1,000,000 Low MSP: Herndon $242,000 $900,000 Avg Close Price $800,000 $700,000 $700,000 $590,000 $563,920 $600,000 $500,000 $380,000 $333,000 $290,700 $305,000 $400,000 $302,000 $312,500 $290,000 $264,000 $274,000 $275,000 $242,000 $300,000 $200,000 Source:  MRIS Page 7 of 17

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis Monthly SFD Sales (Last Twelve Months) Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 47.1% 850 764 Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 31.9% 750 726 12 Month High:  Jun 08 764 664 663 12 Month Low:  Jan 08 259 650 Monthly Sales 555 2008 Average 529 562 499 550 2007 Average 491 508 450 Total sales of detached units are trending  382 423 337 up even after five consecutive months of  350 declines.  The first quarter was dismal in  259 2008. 250 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Monthly SFD Average Close Price (Last Twelve Months) Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐4.7% $640,000 Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐25.1% $619,781 12 Month High:  Mar 08 $619,781 $616,866 $620,000 $615,443 $610,536 $608,025 12 Month Low:  Sep 08 $514,060 $605,511 2008 Average $588,470 $608,892 $600,000 Average Close Price $605,275 2007 Average $715,423 $580,000 The Average Close Price for detached units  $568,828 is trending down.  After two months of  $560,000 increases, December had a 5% decline.   $546,253 Prices have fallen 14% since the high in  $540,000 $542,165 March (‐$77,616) and 25.1% from last  December (‐$181,317).   $520,000 $514,060 $500,000 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Source:  MRIS Page 8 of 17

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis Monthly SFA Sales (Last Twelve Months) Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 23.1% 550 479 491 Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 69.0% 456 12 Month High:  Jun 08 491 437 421 450 426 402 12 Month Low:  Jan 08 155 Monthly Sales 386 2008 Average 380 346 350 2007 Average 345 328 235 Sales in December 2008 of attached units  250 were up 69% compared to last December  and down 13.2% from the 12‐month high  155 reached in June. 150 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Monthly SFA Average Close Price (Last Twelve Months) Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐5.9% $425,000 Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐26.6% 12 Month High:  Mar 08 $383,648 $400,000 $383,648 12 Month Low:  Dec 08 $290,957 2008 Average $343,579 $372,631 $370,587 $375,000 Average Close Price $380,614 2007 Average $428,453 $352,208 $369,217 $350,000 $336,270 Thre trend is down for the average close  $341,149 price for attached units in Fairfax County.   $325,000 $311,913 The average price in December was 27%  $309,087 less than in last December (‐$105,227). $300,000 $304,672 $290,957 $275,000 $250,000 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Source:  MRIS Page 9 of 17

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis Monthly CON Sales (Last Twelve Months) Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 29.1% 275 246 Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 11.0% 250 229 12 Month High:  Jun 08 246 212 225 213 12 Month Low:  Jan 08 124 Monthly Sales 198 2008 Average 182 200 182 179 2007 Average 228 178 175 144 141 Condo sales are trending up in Fairfax with  150 132 124 six months of increases.  The first and last  125 quarters of 2008 posted total sales less than  200 units but the May ‐September period  100 were strong. Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Monthly CON Average Close Price (Last Twelve Months) Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 8.6% $300,000 Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐18.5% 12 Month High:  Jan 08 $282,899 $282,899 $278,340 12 Month Low:  Nov 08 $213,994 $274,541 $275,000 2008 Average $254,837 $264,805 Average Close Price 2007 Average $311,697 $272,992 $257,564 $255,014 Like all product types, condo prices declined  $250,000 $253,776 about 19% in 2008 (‐$52,617).  Prices  $239,457 $232,418 declined seven out twelve months in 2008. $232,243 $225,000 $213,994 $200,000 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Source:  MRIS Page 10 of 17

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis Month's Supply of Inventory (Last Twelve Months) Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐15.9% 15.0 Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐40.7% 12 Month High:  Jan 08 12.5 12.5 13.0 12 Month Low:  Dec 08 4.7 2008 Average 6.9 11.0 10.2 2007 Average 6.8 MSI 9.0 FRC considers the market to be in  8.0 7.3 equilibrium (there is enough supply to  6.4 7.0 satisfy demand) when the MSI is at 4 to 5  5.4 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.4 months.  After reaching a high of 12.5  4.7 months in January, the figure hovered  5.0 around 5.5 months from June to November.   With December's low figure, the trend is  3.0 down (a good thing) and puts Fairfax's  Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 market in equilibrium. Month's Supply of Inventory 14.0 High MSI: Great Falls 12.3 12.3 12.0 Low MSI: Burke,Herndon 3.3 10.0 Herndon had the lowest MSI in September,  October, November and December with  8.0 7.0 only + or ‐ 3 months supply of available  6.0 5.8 5.5 5.3 6.0 5.0 inventory.  Great Falls and McLean, with  4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 their high priced inventory, have the largest  3.7 3.3 3.3 4.0 available supply.  Eight of the fifteen areas  are in equilibrium though. 2.0 0.0 Source:  MRIS Page 11 of 17

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis Average Close Price to Average List Price % 95% 12 mo High CP/LP %:  Apr 08 93.8% 12 mo Low CP/LP %:  Nov 08 90.7% 93.8% 94% 12 Month Average 92.0% 93.1% 92.9% 92.9% 2008 Average 92.0% 93% 92.4% 2007 Average 93.8% CP to LP % 92% 91.5% 92.1% 91.7% This indicator measures the willingness of  91.0% 90.8% sellers to negotiate price.  The 12 month  91% 91.2% trend for the last quarter of 2008 was up,  90.7% but following five months of declines  90% culminating in the exceptionally low  November ratio, the trendline is now  89% headed down slightly.  The average was  92.0% for the year. 88% Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Average Close Price to Average List Price % 97.0% 96.1% High CP/LP %: Lorton 96.1% Low CP/LP %: Great Falls 87.4% 95.0% 94.1% 93.5% 93.2% 93.0% Lorton's sellers had the highest Close Price  93.0% 92.3% to List Price ratio in Decvember while those  91.4% 91.3% 91.1% in Great Falls accepted offers for only 87%  91.0% 89.8% 89.7% 89.4% of their asking price, on average, up from  88.8% 76% in November. 89.0% 87.9% 87.4% 87.0% 85.0% Source:  MRIS Page 12 of 17

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis Monthly DOMP (Last Twelve Months) Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 0.0% 140 Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐10.4% 123 12 Month High:  Feb 08 123 119 117 12 Month Low:  Jun 08 86 120 12 Month Average: 102 108 Monthly DOMP 103 2008 Average 102 2007 Average 87 96 94 100 95 95 94 89 The twelve‐month DOMP average was been  below 100 days for seven of the last twelve  86 80 months. The twelve month trend is down  even though both December had no change  over November. 60 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Monthly DOMP 170 147 High DOMP: Falls Church 147 150 Low DOMP: Centreville 65 135 Monthly DOMP 130 Nine of the fifteen markets had average  109 108 days on market less than 100 days in  110 102 101 99 97 96 December.   89 86 90 79 79 69 65 70 50 Source:  MRIS Page 13 of 17

Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis Sales Designated as Foreclosures, Short Sales, REO Properties, Pre‐Foreclosures 350 Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐21.6% 328 Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 375.9% 300 12 Month High:  Nov 08 328 12 Month Low: Jan 08 82 250 257 221 Total FC/SS 12 Month Average: 179 197 199 2008 Average 102 200 188 2007 Average 30 158 169 150 129 These figures include listings with REO  properties, short sales, foreclosures and pre‐ 82 100 120 foreclosures designations.  The trend is  96 steeply up over the last year but down last  50 month.  The November figure was almost  Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 double the October's foreclosure sales and  December' figure is 213% higher than the  year's low point in January. Month's Supply of Foreclosure Inventory 7.0 6.0 6.0 High FCSS MSI: Annandale/FFX 6.0 5.8 6.0

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