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Published on January 28, 2008

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TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG E Voter Institute: Research, Relationships, and Reality Check: Campaign 2008 Begins. Political Media Spending: Research and Analysis January 24th 2007 Evan Tracey, TNS Media Intelligence:  TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG E Voter Institute: Research, Relationships, and Reality Check: Campaign 2008 Begins. Political Media Spending: Research and Analysis January 24th 2007 Evan Tracey, TNS Media Intelligence TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG:  Located in Arlington, VA Providing political media research since 1997 Track and analyze political public affairs and issue-advocacy advertising Experienced political researchers assemble the most reliable comprehensive research and reporting  Help clients better manage their media strategy, media buys, public relations and communication efforts National trade associations, foundations, Fortune 100 companies, national media organizations, academia and hundreds of national, statewide and local political campaigns rely on CMAG data TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG www.tnsmi-cmag.com  1-866-559-CMAG Info@tnsmi-cmag.com The Political World Is On TV!:  The Political World Is On TV! 2006 Election Review A Record Year for TV All Political Spending $2.1B on Broadcast TV Federal Races $760M State Races $1.3B Over $1 Billion More than Last Midterms Additionally, there has been $344M Spent on State and Federal Issue Ads What Drove The Record Election Spending?:  What Drove The Record Election Spending? TV: McCain/Feingold The Mid-Terms - more hard money, Party money and more groups Campaign ad cycle stretched longer (Jan 2005 - Dec 2006) The competitive political landscape “Incumbent insecurity” accelerated spending even in “safe” seats Late fundraising push to buy more ads You can’t take it with you principle (Losers’ spending up) More network (and local) Cable Winners equal to or outspent rivals 2006 Federal TV Ad Spending Breakdown:  2006 Federal TV Ad Spending Breakdown US Senate & House Races Federal Races :$756 M (candidates/party/interest groups) Republicans: $350M (candidate/party) Democrats: $370M (candidate/party) Federal 527: $36M 8 Races for Congress Exceeded $10 Million in Total Ad Spending 2006 Governors Races:  2006 Governors Races Thirty-six States Held Gubernatorial Elections in 2006 Spending $652M Total Many States had Competitive and Expensive Primaries Lack of Competitiveness Did Not Impact Ad Spending Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Iowa Kansas Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Mexico New York Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Vermont Wisconsin Wyoming State and Local Political TV Ad Spending:  State and Local Political TV Ad Spending Ballot Measures 2006 a big year for ballot measures $302M spent nationwide on TV Ads In California, tobacco & energy generate $152M MO Stem Cell $5.5M RI Gaming $4.6M Value of political turnout instrument in question State Supreme Court and AG’s AG’s races -- $77M Judges -- $35M Why Broadcast TV is Still #1?:  Why Broadcast TV is Still #1? Still viewed as the most efficient Fighting the last campaigns One day of sale business TV drives independent voters Current “Available Voter”/”Campaign Spending” Relationship:  Current “Available Voter”/”Campaign Spending” Relationship Jan. Nov. Available Voters $$$$ $ Advertising Spending Election Year  The Race to the Finish Line:  The Race to the Finish Line 76% of the total was spent in the last 60 days 52% of the total was spent in the last 30 days Late fundraising push expanded Democrat buying into dark-red states Inventory issues in some markets increased demand, and prices went up Weekly spending went from $204M to over $400M over the last three weeks Estimated Non-Broadcast TV Election Media Spending:  Estimated Non-Broadcast TV Election Media Spending Local Cable TV $300 Million Newspaper $20 Million Radio $60 Million Internet $2-5 Million Outdoor $15-30 Million Slide12:  The Expanding Role of New Media The Role Of New Media In 2006:  The Role Of New Media In 2006 On-Line Ads Mostly Used for Fundraising 36 Elected Offices That Used Paid Media Used Paid On-Line Ads ½ of the Spending was on Gov & Federal Campaigns Near Equal Use by Party Still Many State and Local Offices Used On-Line Ads Local Newspaper Sites Received the Bulk of On-Line Spending Looking Ahead – 2007 :  Looking Ahead – 2007 Campaign advertising will be dominated by special elections, local races, special elections and a few Statewide Elections in KY, LA and MS Ballot measures will continue to play a significant role in state & local politics Wide open Presidential Primary means early advertising in as many as dozen states and on-line. MoveOn.Org, Draft Obama and Duncan Hunter already on the air! Campaigns will use web and cable advertising to generate headlines in 2007 Movement in the Presidential Primary calendar will impact ad spending Mayors and Other Local Races Growth in Opinion Leader On-Line Blogs Looking Ahead -- 2008:  Looking Ahead -- 2008 4th Year in the Political Business Cycle A Presidential Year! Open and Crowded Field of Republicans and Democrats and Possibly Others? House and Senate – New House Members Will Need to Defend, 1/3 of the Senate Up – Many 08 seats currently held by GOP Lack of Big Governor Races (11 Total) The Trends :  The Trends Campaigns and groups are always campaigning by continuing to go on the air earlier Heaviest spending is still condensed into the last 60 days Ad watch journalism continues Issue groups are the most active in competitive and high profile races Majority of campaigns include their web address in TV commercials Some ads are now promoting on-line videos Consultants looking for ways to be more efficient with paid media Fragmented TV audience increasingly difficult to target and ratings do not identify key political constituencies Media mix expanding in attempt to bracket voters More radio Specifically “top radio” Move away from niche radio, i.e. Christian Move to web/e-mail TNS Voter Media Habits Finding: Trending Targeting Data :  TNS Voter Media Habits Finding: Trending Targeting Data Cable (Households with Digital Cable) Democrats 31% Republicans 27% Newspaper Readership (Frequent Readers of Daily Newspapers) Democrats -- 52% (8% NYTimes, 3% WSJ, USA Today 8%) Republicans – 47% (3% NYTimes, 6% WSJ, USA Today 7%) Internet Preferences Democrats -- News, Financial, Entertainment, Shopping, Search, Travel, Music, Local Republicans – News, Financial, Shopping, Search, Travel, Medical, Local 9% visit some type of Blog 8% visit political blogs “Available” voters spend more time on-line per week than “committed” voters Radio Preferences Democrats – R&B, Classic Rock, Oldies, Public Radio Republicans – Classic Rock, Oldies, Talk What to Watch :  What to Watch Even with continued audience fragmentation broadcast TV will continue to receive the bulk of ad spending Local cable will continue to grow Use of more national cable TV for issue and political ads Growth of paid on-line advertising related to the 2008 Presidential race More attempts to connect old and new paid media Web ads will attract more press coverage in 2007/2008 Likely to continue set new spending records

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