Estimating the cost of a CCS System - Jean-François Léandri, Alstom

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Information about Estimating the cost of a CCS System - Jean-François Léandri, Alstom
Finance

Published on February 4, 2014

Author: globalccs

Source: slideshare.net

Description

A presentation from the 2013 Costs of CCS Workshop.

CCS Cost Workshop Jean-François Léandri IEA Paris 6-7/11/2013

Alstom : three main activities in four sectors Equipment & services for power generation Alstom Thermal Power Equipment & services for power transmission Alstom Grid Alstom Renewable Power Equipment & services for rail transport Alstom Transport Clean Power, Clear Solutions - 05/11/2013 – P 2

Portfolio of power technologies GAS COAL OIL HYDRO NUCLEAR (conventional island) WIND (offshore and onshore) SOLAR GEOTHERMAL BIOMASS TIDAL ...for new plants or installed base Clean Power, Clear Solutions - 05/11/2013 – P 3

Carbon Capture and Storage OPERATING TESTS COMPLETE Completed AEP Mountaineer USA – 58 MWth Chilled Ammonia, Coal EoN Karlshamn Sweden - 5 MWth Chilled Ammonia, Fuel WE - Energie USA WI - 5 MWth Chilled Ammonia, Coal Vattenfall Schwarze Pumpe, Germany 30 MWth, Oxy - Lignite Total Lacq France - 30 MWth Oxy - Gas Alstom BSF Windsor US - 15 MWth Oxy - Coals 2nd Gen P4 DOW Chemical Co. USA, WV Adv. Amines - Coal DOE/Alstom Windsor US - 3 MWth Chemical Looping, Coal OPERATING TCM Mongstad Norway 40 MWth, Chilled Ammonia, CHP & Refinery Offgas (RCC) OPERATING Alstom GPU Pilot (Mobile) 0.3 MWth Alstom Labs Växjö Sweden – 0.25 MWth Post C.-multi purpose 2nd Gen RFCS EU - Darmstadt Germany - 1 MWth Chemical Looping - Coal © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will-apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without Clean Power, Clear Solutions 05/11/2013 – P 4 liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. EDF Le Havre France - 5 MWth Adv. Adv. Amines - Coal LARGE-SCALE PROJECTS (under development) White Rose CCS Project UK - 426 MWe Oxy Hardcoal

Learning curve or not learning curve ? Limitation of the learning curves To what extend are the historical empirical data valid for CCS technologies? Where to start on the curve when zero commercial units sold? Source Global CCS Institute P5 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will-apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without Clean Power, Clear Solutions 05/11/2013 – P 5 liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Alstom approach to estimate cost of CCS technologies Many factors involved in cost reductions: technological advances, patchwork of technical fields rapid changes in policies & regulations economies of scale, process improvements, ….. Conventional scope CCS integration Alstom approach: CCS Capture Learning disaggregated into: conventional and CCS plants then into performance and volume CCS CO2 Comp then into CCS sub-systems Estimations based on technical analysis and expert judgment Detailed performance and cost analysis of each CCS sub-items P6 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will-apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without Clean Power, Clear Solutions 05/11/2013 – P 6 liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Conventional reference plant Setting the stage for future evolutions “Increasing intermittent Power ” • • Will reduce thermal capacity factor Efficiency at part load, emissions Improvement net efficiency LHV vs load (conventional hardcoal plant – Europe) 53% Eff. @ 100% load Eff. @ 60% load Eff. @ 35% load 51% “Unaffordable Fuel bill , too low elec. prices” • • Increase efficiency Fuel characteristics (carbon %, FHV) 49% 710g/KWh 47% 45% “increasing water scarcity & cost of water” • Cooling temperature (ACC, hybrid CT) 745g/KWh 785g/KWh 43% 41% “Budget squeeze & tougher access to capital” • • Scaling-up size Standardization & Modularization 875g/KWh 39% 37% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Fossil plant operation and performance could change several times over its lifetime P7 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will-apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without Clean Power, Clear Solutions 05/11/2013 – P 7 liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Conventional reference plant Capex estimation Capex 30 €/KWh Flexibility Volume Size/Leadtime 25 Efficiency 20 15 10 5 0 Ref 15-20 Ref 30-35 Cost of efficiency and flexibility performance improvements Volume effect (could also be negative: e.g. less coal PP w/o CCS sold) Cost reduction through shorter lead time (design & manufacturing) and size increase (exponential scaling factor) P8 Flexibility will have a cost © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will-apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without Clean Power, Clear Solutions 05/11/2013 – P 8 liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Capture system CCS integration Performance improvements - Auxiliary consumption CCS Capture Analysis for each sub-systems CCS CO2 Comp (Hardcoal illustration) 100% 90% 80% 70% 2015 CCS Integration ASU EPC GPU Post capture 2020 2025 2030 2035 Starting Point: system performance as at starting year Rates: potential level of improvement from system experts: ex: analysis of post capture GJ/tO2 achievable and requirements (roadmap, IB, risks…) Rates applied in addition to efficiency improvement of the reference plant Rates could be customised by region/coal type P9 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will-apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without Clean Power, Clear Solutions 05/11/2013 – P 9 liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. -P9

Capture system Consolidated energy penalty (Hardcoal PP) 28% 28% EUROPE % MWe net % MWe net Oxy 26% NAM Oxy 26% Amines Amines 24% 24% 22% 22% 20% 20% 18% 18% 16% 16% 14% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 • Amine: high starting point (3,5 GJ/tCO2) 14% 2015 2020 2030 2035 • Impact of higher cooling temperature • Coal characteristics not as good as EUR Note: Energy penalty = (Net Output Ref PP – Net Output CCS PP)/ Net Output Ref PP P 10 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will-apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without Clean Power, Clear Solutions 05/11/2013 – P 10 liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. - P 10 2025

Capture system CCS integration Capex improvement CCS Capture CCS CO2 Comp CCS plant drivers Volume effect applies differently on conventional scope and on capture scope Starting point for the Capture scope: large scale demo or FoaK commercial Optimum economical size for capture train and number of trains Risk provisions on first of a kind technology 100% Volume effect Rate derived from installed base volume forecast (linked to years) 90% 80% 70% Specific rates considered by capture sub-system (integration, ASU, GPU / Compr. CO2, post capture) CCS Integration ASU 60% GPU / Compression CO2 Adv. Amine Same rates applied for all regions 50% 40% 2015 2020 IC0 P 11 2025 IC1 2030 IC2 Year 2035 IC3 Inst. capacity © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will-apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without Clean Power, Clear Solutions 05/11/2013 – P 11 liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. - P 11

Capture system O&M cost improvement First method: disaggregate and estimate of the different cost reductions Variable O&M: • lower solvent cost due to cheaper solvents • less solvent consumed with better reclamation and reduced waste cost Fixed O&M: • less manual chemical lab services, less dedicated process operators • more automated analysis & process Second method (selected): apply a full and aggregated O&M learning curve to all the incremental fix/variable O&M CCS cost (excl. conventional plant) P 12 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will-apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without Clean Power, Clear Solutions 05/11/2013 – P 12 liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

CCS Plant LCoE – illustration hardcoal plant Europe 100 CoE €/KWh (*) Excluding CO2 Transport & Storage 90 80 70 60 50 40 -15 % +32 % + 240 % (50€/t) CO2 cost (14 €/t) Avoided Incremental CO2 cost CCS cost * 90% capture FUEL Avoided CO2 cost 90% capture Incremental CCS cost * - 5% 30 20 10 OPEX + 1% CAPEX + 7% Efficiency, flexibility, lead time, scaling-up, volume 0 Ref PP CCS CO2 2015 - 2020 P 13 CCS Others Ref PP CCS CO2 CCS Others 2030 - 2035 Cost of CCS plant as a result of a full consolidation © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will-apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without Clean Power, Clear Solutions 05/11/2013 – P 13 liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

CCS Plant Sensitivity LCoE – illustration hardcoal plant Europe (1/2) CCS Opex -20% Re-boiler duty (1,8 GJ/tCO2) 1,75 GJ CO2 compression Economic life (25 yrs) Fuel cost (78,2 €/t) 50% Eff 49,4% Eff 47,4% -50% 50% Rate 80% Rate 92,7% Wacc 7% Wacc 5,5% 40 yrs 20 yrs Conventional plant contribution -25% -10% 10% -35% Capex Transport (200 km) WACC w/o inflation (6%) 10% -10% Capex Storage Capture rate (90%) 2,0 GJ -10% CCS Capex Ref plt net efficiency (48,4%) 5% -5% 0% 5% LCoE CCS PP 2030-35 Example: 74 €/KWh (w no CO2 price applied) P 14 Performance and cost of CCS Sub-systems to be put in perspective with other dimensions …. © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will-apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without Clean Power, Clear Solutions 05/11/2013 – P 14 liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. CCS +25% 10%

CCS Plant Sensitivity LCoE – illustration hardcoal plant Europe (2/2) 50 €/t (+6,1%) Applying CO2 Price in 2030-35 Plant load (100% load) Conventional plant portion 103% CF @ full load (7446 hrs) 8000 -5% 110 €/t Impact from the 10% CO2 not captured on CCS PP 30 €/t Conventional plant portion 0% 5% 10% CCS portion CCS portion 15% 20% 25% 60% 5000 30% 35% LCoE CCS PP 2030-35 Example: 74 €/KWh (w no CO2 price applied) ….in particular with CO2 market price and trend for flexibility. P 15 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will-apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without Clean Power, Clear Solutions 05/11/2013 – P 15 liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. 40%

Conclusions Capex: Detailed performance and cost analysis of each CCS sub-items Opex: O&M learning curve applied Benchmark with Learning curve method CCS systems evaluated as part of a global gas or coal plant Key trends in generation anticipated (intermittency, environnement…) Optimisation of the global performance and cost of the plant CCS plant flexibility and its related cost will be key P 16 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will-apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without Clean Power, Clear Solutions 05/11/2013 – P 16 liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

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