ESM 297 Week 5

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Information about ESM 297 Week 5

Published on February 29, 2008

Author: BeatRoot


ESM 297:  ESM 297 Renewable Energy Law and Policy Week 5: Vehicle fuel efficiency policy Tam Hunt Energy Program Director/Attorney Community Environmental Council The National CAFÉ standards:  The National CAFÉ standards Created in 1975 by the Energy Policy and Conservation Act CAFÉ standard currently set at 27.5 for cars and 20.7 for trucks and SUVs Actual CAFÉ (as opposed to the CAFÉ standard) is 25.4, according to NHTSA Can earn CAFÉ credits for FFVs Regardless of whether the vehicles run on ethanol or gasoline! Manufacturers must meet the standard separately for domestic and international sales The NAS report:  The NAS report Finding 1: that CAFÉ standards save about 14% of gasoline consumption currently (2.8 million barrels per day) Finding 2: CAFÉ standards contributed to an additional 1,300 to 2,600 deaths in 1993 from collisions A dissent by two of the panelists states that there may be no attribution to CAFÉ for this increase and this area should be studied more The NAS report:  The NAS report Finding 3: Distinction between cars/trucks/SUVs has been blurred heavily Also, allowing manufacturers credit for FFVs had had, if anything, a negative effect on fuel economy, greenhouse gases Finding 4: From 1975 to 1984, vehicle improvements were used to achieve higher gas mileage Fuel efficiency improved by 62% with no performance loss from 1985 on, impovements were used to provide more power Vehicles became 20% heavier but 0-60 mph acceleration improved 25% The NAS report:  The NAS report Finding 5: There is significant potential for vehicle efficiency improvements over the next 15 years Finding 8: they calculate $0.30/gallon of externalities related to GHGs and oil market effects Finding 10: other policy tools could achieve the same results of CAFÉ standards at lower prices (such as tradable credits for fuel economy, higher gas taxes, feebates, standards based on vehicle attributes, etc.) The NAS report:  The NAS report Finding 11: Tradable credits could be very effective, especially with a cap on price Finding 13: If CAFÉ standards required smaller cars, increases in fatalities could be expected Again, many analysts, including RMI and UCS find that SUVs are in fact more dangerous than small cars Finding 15: Major changes in the vehicle fleet will require decades and 4 to 8 years for today’s technology improvements to even begin to enter the new vehicle market The NAS report:  The NAS report Recommendation 1: Elected officials should determine the right mix of tradeoffs re increased fuel economy and societal costs and benefits Recommendation 2: The CAFÉ system should include tradable fuel economy credits, which would be a cheaper way to achieve improved fuel economy than today’s CAFÉ standards Recommendation 3: CAFÉ standards should be modified to allow vehicle attribute standards This was done (sort of) in 2005 for light-duty trucks and SUVs, pegging CAFÉ to six size classes, rather than one size fits all > will lead to a small increase in fuel economy The NAS report:  The NAS report Recommendation 4: The two fleet rule should be eliminated Recommendation 5: CAFÉ credits for dual-fuel vehicles should be eliminated Recommendation 6: The government should continue to fund fuel efficiency R&D Recommendation 7: More research should be done on fuel economy vs. safety issues Steven’s recent CAFÉ proposal:  Steven’s recent CAFÉ proposal Ted Stevens (Alaska) introduced S.183 in January of 2007 This bill calls for achieving a CAFÉ of 40 mpg by 2017 Section 101(b)(3): “The Secretary shall prescribe an average fuel economy standard for passenger automobiles manufactured by a manufacturer in model year 2017 of 40 miles per gallon. If the Secretary determines that more than 1 manufacturer is not reasonably expected to achieve that standard, the Secretary shall notify the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation and the House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce of that determination.” S.183:  S.183 Section 101(b): “At least 18 months before the beginning of each model year, the Secretary of Transportation shall prescribe by regulation average fuel economy standards for passenger automobiles manufactured by a manufacturer in that model year. Each standard shall be the maximum feasible average fuel economy level that the Secretary decides the manufacturers can achieve in that model year. The Secretary may prescribe separate standards for different classes of passenger automobiles.” S.183:  S.183 Section 101(c)(1): “The authority of the Secretary to prescribe by regulation average fuel economy standards for automobiles under this section includes the authority to prescribe standards based on one or more vehicle attributes that relate to fuel economy, and to express the standards in the form of a mathematical function.” S.183:  S.183 Section 102 allows credits to be accrued and applied to future years, up to three years in the future This section also allows manufacturers to purchase greenhouse gas credits to meet their CAFÉ standard requirements Up to 10% of their obligation in any year Another option for increased CAFÉ :  Another option for increased CAFÉ The LCFS Staff Report:  The LCFS Staff Report “At least” a 10% reduction in carbon intensity by 2020 Projected to reduce petroleum demand by about 20% Projected to add 7 million alt. fuel vehicles by 2020 > about 20 times what we have in 2007 “Sales-weighted average” must meet the standard for each supplier LCFS Strategies:  LCFS Strategies E10: up from today’s 5.7% E85: get more stations in place Low carbon ethanol: create ethanol with fewer fossil fuel inputs Electricity: EVs or PHEVs Hydrogen: used in FCVs or hydrogen ICEs CNG, LPG: used in modified ICEs Other biomass-based fuel: biobutanol, bio-crude, etc. Governor’s Bioenergy Action Plan:  Governor’s Bioenergy Action Plan Mentioned in the LCFS report The plan is complete spin: The Governor’s Bioenergy Action Plan only calls for producing 40% of the biofuels we happen to use in 2020 in California There is no absolute target at all Scenarios for achieving the LCFS:  Scenarios for achieving the LCFS Table 2. Possible Compliance Scenarios to Meet 10 Percent Reduction Target in 2020 Scenario Number --> 1 2 3 Total Petroleum Displaced by Low-Carbon Fuels (B gal) 3.0 3.1 3.2 Fuels Total Ethanol Demand (B gal) 2.7 3.8 4.7 Number of FFVs (millions) 3.0 6.0 8.5 Number of PHEVs (millions) 4.1 1.7 0.0 FCVs (millions) 0.5 0.5 0.2 Source: Natural Resources Defense Council estimates The Governor’s Exec. Order:  The Governor’s Exec. Order Nothing new compared to the Staff Report Requires CEC and ARB to include the LCFS in AB 1007 and AB 32 implementation AB 1007 is the State Alternative Fuels Plan AB 32 is the Global Warming Solutions Act E.O. requires that ARB consider the LCFS as a possible “early action item” Another option for increasing efficiency: :  Another option for increasing efficiency: Discussion of paper topics:  Discussion of paper topics Questions? Slide21:  Tam Hunt: 963-0538, x. 122,

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