EquitiesPresentation

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Published on February 19, 2008

Author: Baverly_gal

Source: authorstream.com

Todd Moss, Vijaya Ramachandran, and Scott Standley :  Todd Moss, Vijaya Ramachandran, and Scott Standley Why Doesn’t Africa get More Portfolio Investment? Frontier Stock Markets, Firm Size, and Asset Allocations of Global Emerging Market Funds Why relevant?:  Why relevant? Finance & development debate Push vs Pull determinants Inform efforts to promote cap flows Market failure? Market works? Frontier equity markets:  Frontier equity markets 15 mkts SA dominates Others small, low liquidity Few large blocks available But not unusual Slide4:  Log market capitalization vs. Log GDP Slide5:  Log value traded vs. Log market capitalization Regional Funds:  Regional Funds Slide7:  GEM fund investment, 1995-2005 Slide8:  South Africa GEM investment, 1996-2004 (3 year moving averages) Slide9:  GEM investment in Frontier SSA (1996-2004, 3yr moving averages) Slide10:  Share of GEM investment vs. Log market capitalization No country with market cap under $50 bn receives more than 1% of total GEM investment Market cap = $50 bn Slide11:  Share of GEM investment vs. Log value traded Value traded = $10 bn No country with value traded under $10 bn receives more than 1% of total GEM investment Slide12:  Log GEM investment vs. Log market capitalization Slide13:  Log GEM investment vs. Log value traded Slide14:  Share of GEM funds vs. Log market capitalization Slide15:  Share of GEM funds vs. Log market capitalization >90% of funds and >$150 bn market cap Outgrown asset class <10% of funds and <$20 bn market cap Slide16:  Share of GEM funds vs. Log value traded Slide17:  Share of GEM funds vs. Log value traded >90% of funds and >$75-100 bn value traded Outgrown asset class <10% of funds and <$2 bn value traded Why are SSA firms small?:  Why are SSA firms small? Cost Structures, Firm-Level Average by Country (Eifert, Gelb and Ramachandran, 2005) Why are SSA firms small?:  Why are SSA firms small? Gross and Net Value Added per Worker, $ Adjusted (Eifert, Gelb and Ramachandran, 2005) Why are SSA firms small?:  Why are SSA firms small? Percentage of Annual Revenues Lost in Unofficial Payments (World Bank Investment Climate Assessments, various) Conclusions:  Conclusions Target regional funds Leverage JSE Focus on supply constraints/barriers to firm entry and growth Privatization? Private equity? SME finance? END:  END END Slide23:  Log GEM investment vs. Log market capitalization Slide24:  Share of GEM investment vs. Log market capitalization Market cap = $50 bn No country with market cap under $50 bn receives more than 1% of total GEM investment Slide25:  Log GEM investment vs. Log GDP Slide26:  Share of GEM funds vs. Log GDP Slide27:  Share of GEM funds vs. Log GDP >90% of funds and >$200 bn GDP 10%-90% of funds and $60-$200 bn GDP Outgrown asset class <10% of funds and <$60 bn GDP Slide28:  Share of GEM investment vs. Log GDP GDP = $100 bn No country with GDP under $100 bn receives more than 1% of total GEM investment

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