Published on October 17, 2014
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT 17 OCTOBER 2014 HNI & NRI Sales Contact Australia Mintara Road, Tarneit, Victoria. Post Code 3029 Phone.: +61 422 063855 HNI & NRI Sales Contact USA 2117 Arbor Vista Dr. Charlotte (NC) Cell: +1 704 249 2315 Toll Free Number 1-800-200-9454 All queries should be directed to Info@epicresearch.co 1 Epic Research India 411 Milinda Manor (Suites 409-417) 2 RNT Marg. Opp Central Mall Indore (M.P.) Hotline: +91 731 664 2300 Alternate: +91 731 664 2320 Or give us a missed call at 026 5309 0639 Our Presence YOUR MINTVISORYCall us at +91-731-6642300
2. Market Views 2 MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL DHANIYA NOV 12282 12330 12130 12135 -1.12 10500 INTRADAY LEVELS SUPPORT SUPP.1 12166 SUPP. 2 12059 PIVOT 12297 Dhaniya shortterm trend is down, further more downsideis expected in comimg days. RESISTANCE RES. 1 12404 RES. 2 12535 CASTORSEED NOV 4442 4459 4420 4430 -0.43 88250 INTRADAY LEVELS SUPPORT SUPP. 1 4415 SUPP. 2 4382 PIVOT 4461 Castorseed short term trend is up,Prices expected to go up in coming days. RESISTANCE RES. 1 4494 RES. 2 4540 TURMERIC NOV 6250 6330 6102 6158 -1.75 8410 INTRADAY LEVELS SUPPORT SUPP. 1 6186 SUPP. 2 6104 PIVOT 6248 Turmeric price is in up trend and may continue in coming days. RESISTANCE RES. 1 6330 RES. 2 6392 GUARGUM NOV 16380 16390 15970 16010 -1.84 6130 INTRADAY LEVELS SUPPORT SUPP. 1 16217 SUPP. 2 16123 PIVOT 16343 Guargum Short term trend is downExpecting price may go downin coming days. RESISTANCE RES. 1 16437 RES. 2 16563
3. Most Active Contract 3 TOP GAINERS SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE CURRENT PRICE CHANGE CHANGE % SOYABEAN 20-10-2014 3013.00 73.00 2.48% RAPESEED-MUSTARD SEED 20-10-2014 3685.00 43.00 1.18% CHANA 20-10-2014 2831.00 28.00 1.00% BARLEY 20-10-2014 1591.00 8.00 0.51% REFINED SOY OIL 20-10-2014 590.30 1.20 0.20% TOP LOSERS SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE CURRENT PRICE CHANGE CHANGE % TURMERIC 20-10-2014 6302.00 -128.00 -1.99% CORIANDER 20-10-2014 11731.00 -148.00 -1.25% CASTOR SEED NEW 20-10-2014 4385.00 -20.00 -0.45% JEERA 20-11-2014 10935.00 -45.00 -0.41% GUR 20-11-2014 968.00 -1.00 -0.10% NCDEX INDICES Index Value Pre. Close % Change CASTORSEED 4430 4449 -0.43 CHANA 2898 2885 0.45 CORIANDER 12135 12273 -1.12 SUGAR 2786 2816 -1.07 JEERA 10935 10965 -0.27 MUSTARD SEED 3639 3640 -0.03 SOYABEAN 3033 2966 +2.26 TURMERIC 6158 6268 -1.75
4. Commodities In News 4 ECONOMIC NEWS RiceexportsbyIndia,theworld'stopexporter,arelikelytoincreaseby8.5percentto11milliontonnesthisyearonexpectedhighershipmentsofbasmatirice,saysalatestreport.Totalriceshipmentshaddeclinedby7percentto10.14milliontonnesin2013-14marketingyear(October- September)butthecountrystillmaintaineditsstatusastopexporterintheglobalmarket."WeexpectthatIndiaislikelytoexportaround10.5-11milliontonnesofricein2014-15inwhichbasmaticontributionisexpectedtocontributearound4-4.5milliontonnes,"Despiteexpectedlowerdomesticproductionofriceinviewofpoorrains, overallsaleofriceintheinternationalmarketisexpectedtoimprovewiththecontributionofbasmatiricecontinuetogrowby5-6percentthisyear."Surplusdomesticstocks, higherglobaldemandanticipatedfromAfricanandMiddleEastcountriesandcompetitivepricesmaypushriceexportsfromIndia,Asperthereport,lowerthannormalrainfallunderEl-Ninoimpactmayreducericeproductionto97milliontonnesin2014-15from106.29milliontonneslastyear. TheHudhud-cyclonicstormhasdestroyedthepaddyfieldinmajorricegrownareainAndhraPradesh,Odisha,WestBengalandChhattisgarh,itsaid.Consequently,domesticriceprices,whicharecurrentlyrulingatRs2,900-2,920perquintal,areexpectedtomoveinarange-boundmannerwithfirmbiasincomingweekduetomajorcroplossinmanyricegrowingstates,itadded.Presently,harvestingofkharif(summer)riceisunderwayandharvestingofbasmatipaddyvariety1509ispickingupinPunjabandHaryana. China'ssugarproductionisexpectedtofallevenfurtherthanhadbeenthoughtinthenewly-startedseason,aslowpricesdeterproduction,butthedeclinewillnotbeenoughtopreventimportsdroppingtoafour-yearlow.Chinesesugaroutputwilldropbynearly1mtonnesor7.5%to13.3mtonnesin2014-15,whichstartedthismonth,theUSDepartmentofAgriculture'sBeijingbureausaid. Theproductionestimateis400,000tonnesmorethantheUSDA'sofficialforecast,reflectingideasthatlowersugarpriceshavecausedreturnsoncanetofallbelowcompetingcrops,suchasfruitsorcassava.SugarcaneacreageinGuangxireportedlydeclined7%, whileacreageinHainanfellbyover20%. TurmericfuturesclosedofftheonemonthhighonThursdayonprofittaking.TheNCDEXturmericfortheNovemberdeliveryendedthesessionatRs6158,downRs110or1.75%.Longliquidationwitnessedintheturmericfuturesafterswellingsharplytriggeredbyprofittakingofgainsandmoderationindemandinreadymarket.TradersmentionedthatthesowingofnewcropisstillamajorconcerninstateslikeAndhraPradeshandTamilanduduetodelayedmonsoonrainfallandpoorpricerealizationbycultivators. SimilartrendisalsoobservinginMaharashtraasnotmuchsowinghasbeenreportedinSangli.Ontheotherside,stockshavedepletedinlocalmandieswithstrongpaceduetosteadyexportdemand. TurmericNovemberdeliveryjumpedalmostRs500or8%toRs6330levelleadbybargainbuyingsupport.Thecountertouchedalmostonehighandslumpedonprofittakingactivities.ThecounterclosedtheThursday'ssessionatRs6158,downRs110or1.75%andtheopeninterestpared505tonnesto9,615tonnes,indicatingprofittaking.
5. 5 FundamentalWatch : Cotton COTTON DAILY ARRIVALS National & International Market Updates AsperthelatestestimatesreleasedbyMinistryofAgriculture(MoA), around126.55lakhhectareofareahasbeensownundercottonthisyearasonOctober10,around10.64%higherthanthepreviousyear,whenitwas114.37lakhhectaresduringthesameperiod.CottonproductioninIndiaduringthecurrentseason(Oct’14-Sep’15),wouldtobearound400lakhbales(of170kgs.each),asestimatedbyconsultativecommitteeoftheCottonAdvisoryBoard(CAB).Accordingtothelatestestimatesofoutputofcottoninthecountrywouldstandaround395lakhbalescomparedto366lakhbalesinpreviousseason.YSRcongressparty(YSRCP)hasrequestedcentreandTelanganaGovernmenttoraisethecottonMSPtoRs. 5,500perquintalandurgedtoprocurecottonthroughCottonCorporationofIndia(CCI)orthegovernmentauthorizedagenciesinordertoeliminatemiddlemanmargins.AccordingtotheUnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture(USDA),Indiaislikelytoproduce6.750milliontonnesofcottonthisseason(Oct'14-Sep'15),unchangedfromestimatedoutputofthepreviousseason.Worldproductionislikelytobearound25.990milliontonnesthisseasoncomparedto26.039milliontonnnespreviousseason. Indiaislikelytowitnessdropof46.8%inthecottonexportsthisyearduetoweakglobalimportdemand.AccordingtothelatestreportreleasedbyUSDA,asonOctober12,2014,47%ofcottoncropinUSAisinexcellenttogoodcondition,sameaspreviousweek.77%bollsopenhasreportedincottonwhichwas73%lastweekand85%asfiveyearaverage.22%ofcottonharvestingreportedwhichwas15%aweekagoand24%asa5yearaverage.BangladeshisexpectedtoloweritsimportsfromUzbekistanby12%in2014comparedto2013upto175thousandtons,butitwillremainthelargestexportdestinationforUzbekistan.ThetopimportersofUzbekistancottonareBangladesh(35%),China(25%)andSouthKorea(7%).Chinaimportsareprojectedtodiminishtohalfthisseasononannouncementofrevisiononimportquotapolicies. CENTER 16-Oct-14 15-Oct-14 %Change AMRAVATI NR NR - RAJKOT 6425 NA - PATAN 19622 16000 +3622 DEESA NA NA - BHIWANI 5000 NA - GONDAL 2531 1050 +1481 RAICHUR 1192 930 +262
6. Technical Outlook 6 SELL DHANIYA NOV BELOW 12120 TGTS 12090,12040 SL 12170 SELL GUARGUM NOV BELOW 15950 TGTS 15900,15800 SL 16130 SELL CASTORSEED NOV BELOW 4400 TGTS 4370,4320 SL 4460 BUY TMC NOV ABOVE 6200 TGTS 6250,6350 SL 6130
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