EMSI's Job Postings Analytics

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Information about EMSI's Job Postings Analytics
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Published on June 27, 2014

Author: EMSICertification

Source: slideshare.net

Description

There's been a lot of buzz around job postings, or "real-time LMI" lately, and EMSI has been hard at work crafting new data to meet our clients' needs. This presentation describes the background and sources behind EMSI's new Job Postings Analytics.

What’s New emsiat Bringing LMI, Hires, and Job Postings Together

WHAT WE’LL COVER: Introduction Hires & Job Churn Job Postings Scenario Summary

GOALS - Provide the background and philosophy - Review the data - Help you walk away with an understanding of the behind the scenes “WHY” and “HOW” of our data process. - Prep you for looking at the data release on July 10

INTRODUCTION - Since 2000 – working with structural LMI • Collected and published by gvt agencies - Data to help understand nature of people, economies and work - Strategic, long-term, big picture analysis - New need to help “drill down” into more tactical decisions (Job posting data or “real- time LMI”)

2014 TOTAL NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT

2-DIGIT INDUSTRIES

INTRODUCTION “Measuring the economy in real time is hard. Ignoring the jobs report is foolish, but overreacting is equally foolish.” -Matt Yglesias, nnn

INTRODUCTION On Canada’s misuse of job postings data: “With these sites removed from the source data, the government’s latest labour market report points to a job vacancy rate of 1.5%, which is dramatically less than the 4% vacancy rate Finance Canada warned of on budget day.”

INTRODUCTION Big Data – We sometimes throw caution to the wind – Huge pressure to understand “demand” We need to know: – Where does it come from? – What can it tell us? – How should we use it / interpret it?

INTRODUCTION Basic Rules –Data is a tool—we need to use it properly –Data, like any tool, has limits –Data is exciting because it illuminates things we have never been able to look at before: MICROSCOPE –Data must talk to other data. Cannot be an island.

The New Guys • Job Postings Analytics (JPA) • Hires • Separations • Job Churn

The New Guys • Job Postings Analytics (JPA) • Hires • Separations • Job Churn

JOB POSTING ANALYTICS Analyzing job ads has gotten a lot of press lately. We’ve looked into it, found some good things to pull out, and brought you the cream of the crop.

HIRES, JOB POSTINGS, AND JOB GROWTH FOR AN AVERAGE MONTH (Based on data from 2013 and 2014)

HIRES, JOB POSTINGS, AND JOB GROWTH FOR AN AVERAGE MONTH (Based on data from 2013 and 2014)

HIRES & JOB CHURNSeparations – Separations account for workers leaving a business for any reason: •Quitting, layoffs, firing, retiring -It won’t be in the upcoming Analyst release • Where to put it • How to use it • We know it’s helpful and want to present it correctly

HIRES & JOB CHURN Hires helps us bridge the gap between structural LMI and JPA. A hire is counted whenever someone shows up on a company’s payroll when they didn’t show up in the previous quarter. A hire is a hire.

HIRES & JOB CHURNHires vs. Annual Openings: – They both measure demand however… •Annual Openings is a modeled number, based off of national projections •Hires is informed by Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI), an actual headcount of hirings that have taken place

HIRES & JOB CHURN Hires & Separations Sources: JOLTS + Timely - Less accurate QWI -Slower + More accurate

HIRES & JOB CHURNChurn Churn (hires and separations) is the bridge between Job Postings and traditional LMI, and why we spent so much time finding a good source for it in QWI.

JPA-CHURN-LMI Not three separate things.

JOB POSTINGS What are Job Postings good for?

JOB POSTINGS What are Job Postings good for? -Who’s hiring? • Company-specific info

JOB POSTINGS What are Job Postings good for? -Who’s hiring? • Company-specific info -What positions are they looking for? • Detailed job titles

JOB POSTINGS What are Job Postings good for? -Who’s hiring? • Company-specific info -What positions are they looking for? • Detailed job titles -What skills do those people need? • Skills data

JOB POSTINGS What are Job Postings good for? -Who’s hiring? • Company-specific info -What positions are they looking for? • Detailed job titles -What skills do those people need? • Skills data -How badly do they want to hire? • Posting Intensity

JOB POSTINGS Posting Intensity – Let’s say a trucking company needed to hire 15 drivers – They start off posting the jobs on their site, but don’t get them filled – A recruiter advises them to put postings on the local WIB site, community boards, CareerBuilder.com, Monster.com, and Indeed.com – Depending on how you counted them, all of a sudden it looks like there are 1,000 open truck driver jobs – The number of total postings put out compared to the number of unique postings meant that trucking company really, really wanted to find people for those jobs

JOB POSTINGS Limitations of Job Postings: – Voluntary •Jobs are posted at the will of individual companies, no standardization on descriptions or timeframes •Some sectors see steady hiring with NO job postings •High-tech, computer related occupations usually have many more postings than available jobs

JOB POSTINGS Limitations of Job Postings: – A posting doesn’t always equal a job •A posted job isn’t necessarily a hire waiting to happen •Postings are collected and sorted automatically, so reliability is somewhat dependent on the spidering technology used •Even when the technology is great, under and overrepresentation of different sectors will still produce inaccurate numbers

JOB POSTINGS What’s EMSI doing about it? “Measuring the economy in real time is hard. Ignoring the jobs report is foolish, but overreacting is equally foolish.” -Matt Yglesias, nnn

JOB POSTINGS What’s EMSI doing about it? – Providing the context •EMSI’s job postings are presented alongside our trusted LMI data, with our new hires figures. •Remember that these are actual jobs that have been counted through mandatory government collection. •LMI helps “reality check” job postings figures

JOB POSTINGS EMSI’s Job Postings Come From: – CareerBuilder’s job postings database – Scraping the web for individual postings – Third-party aggregators

JOB POSTINGS Job Postings Per Month: – About 2.8 Million •After de-duplication

JOB POSTINGS Job Posting De-duplication – By City – By O*NET (job description) – By Company •If we find multiple postings for the same job title, in the same city, for the same company, we reduce all of those postings to “1” posting

SCENARIO Software Developers 465,000 in the Top 50 MSAs 14% increase since 2010, 24% since 2004 Found mostly in large metros •NYC •Seattle •D.C. •San Jose

Software Developers

SCENARIO Welders 133,000 welders across the top 50 MSAs 9.7% growth since 2010

Welders

SUMMARY • Hires, Separations & Job Churn – Better measure of job demand – Helps JP’s better inform LMI – EMSI data, new sources from QWI – Churn is the lens that brings JP’s into focus with LMI • JPA – Good for finding who’s hiring, what skills/positions they want, and how badly they want to hire – Need context to be helpful, which we’re providing in Analyst – Comes from CareerBuilder, web scraping, and other aggregators

QUESTIONS? Matt Gaither mgaither@economicmodeling.com

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