Published on March 11, 2014
A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit Sponsoredby Feeding Asia-Pacific Australia’s role in regional food security
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20141 Feeding Asia-Pacific Australia’s role in regional food security Contents About this research 2 Executive summary 3 Australia’s role in Asian food security 5 Australia’s historical record as an agricultural exporter 7 The global economy to 2030 14 Slower economic growth scenario 19 Prospective interventions by Asian governments to address food security 22 Australia’s capacity to supply Asia’s expanding demand for food 27 How can Australia become a more attractive food bowl for Asia? 29 Appendix: model specification 31 References 34 1 2 3 4 5 6
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20142 Feeding Asia-Pacific Australia’s role in regional food security Aboutthis research Feeding Asia-Pacific: Australia’s role in regional food security is a research paper written by The Economist Intelligence Unit and sponsored by DuPont. The findings and views expressed in this briefing paper do not necessarily reflect the views of DuPont, which has sponsored this publication in the interest of promoting informed debate. Lucy Hurst, associate director of custom research for the Americas, was the research director for the project. Joshua Grundleger, analyst, was the project manager and editor. Leo Abruzzese, global forecasting director and executive editor for the Americas, served as senior adviser. Katherine Stewart, research associate, and Martin Vieiro, analyst, provided research, editorial and analytical support. Kym Anderson, of the University of Adelaide, the Australian National University and the London-based Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), served as a contributing author and agricultural economics and international trade expert for the project. Anna Strutt provided modelling support. Mike Kenny was responsible for layout and design.
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20143 Feeding Asia-Pacific Australia’s role in regional food security l Many industrialising Asian countries, including China and India, are experiencing growing populations and wealthier middle classes. These trends will continue to create increasing demand for more, and higher-value, agricultural products that will need to be sourced via imports. l Asian countries will have difficulties meeting this demand with local resources, providing export opportunities for countries, such as Australia, with strong agricultural sectors. l East Asia’s dominance as the target of Australia’s exports will continue to grow over the next fifteen years. China is the primary export market, although the region as a whole imports more than two-thirds of all Australian merchandise exports. The share of Australian food exports to Asia is lower, but already exceeds 40% of total food exports. l Australia’spotentialtoserveasafoodbowlforAsia isdependentonhowhighAsia’seconomicgrowth rateswillbeandhowthisgrowthwillinfluence structuralchangesandimportdemandinAsia. l The demand for Australian agricultural products will be contingent on the policies that Asian countries pursue to maintain their food security and food self-sufficiency. Currently, trade restrictions are the preferred path, but improving agricultural productivity and research and development (R&D) should be considered. l There are considerable opportunities for Australia to serve as a primary exporter of natural resources and agricultural products to these Asian countries. The agricultural sector’s success is subject to a number of factors, including volatility in weather, the strength of the Australian dollar, the importance of mineral and energy exports, and the growth of key industries, such as shale and biofuels. l Australian mining exports have historically influenced the value of the Australian dollar and consequently the competitive success, and the volume, of Australian agricultural exports. The demand for Australian mineral exports will continue to play an important role for the agricultural sector. l Domestic policies in Australia will also determine the role that the country can play in furthering Asian food security. Trade policy, foreign investment policy, infrastructure investment, and agricultural R&D investment and productivity are areas that may have an impact on Australia’s agricultural exports. l Definitions of food security and food self- sufficiency as used in this paper. Food security is a Executive summary
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20144 Feeding Asia-Pacific Australia’s role in regional food security consumption issue that explores the availability, affordability and utilisation of food by households. This differs from food self-sufficiency, which only considers a country’s ability to feed its population from domestic resources. l This paper relied upon a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to forecast the potential Asian demand for Australian agricultural products in 2030, by modelling the implications of selected policy scenarios in Asia.
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 201436 Feeding Asia-Pacific Australia’s role in regional food security Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, neither The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd. nor the sponsor of this report can accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this white paper or any of the information, opinions or conclusions set out in the white paper. Cover:Shutterstock
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Feeding Asia-Pacific: Australiaâ s role in regional food security is a research paper written by The Economist Intelligence Unit and sponsored by DuPont ...
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