Published on June 10, 2013
DTZ InsightNet Debt Funding GapNon-banks trigger surplus in core EuropeDTZ Research6 June 2013ContentsIntroduction 2Gross debt funding gap 3Non-bank lenders 5Net debt funding gap 7AuthorsNigel AlmondHead of Strategy Research+44 (0)20 3296 email@example.comHans VrensenGlobal Head of Research+44 (0)20 3296 firstname.lastname@example.org Over the next two years non-bank lenders are projected to more than bridgethe gross debt funding gap. This will lead to a surplus in a number leading coreEuropean markets, such as the UK, France, Sweden and Germany (Figure 1). Allother markets remain exposed, most notably Spain, Ireland and Italy. By notreallocating any surpluses, this leaves a USD50bn European net funding gap. In our updated analysis, Europe’s net refinancing gap has come down by 42%compared to the USD86bn six months ago. The gross gap remains at USD163bnreflecting a 16% decline over the same period. Increased writedowns andredemptions in some markets have helped soften the regulatory impact. The level of refinancing required going forward will decline from a peak in2013. The refinancing gap is expected to remain elevated in the near termreflecting extension of loans originated at the peak of the market. Over thelonger term we expect the impacts to shrink with growth in non-bank lendingand as regulatory pressures force banks to work out their legacy loans. Despite a temporary slowdown in fund raisings in 2013, we do still expect moregrowth in non-bank lending over the next three years. Their share of themarket is projected to be higher at 15% in the UK relative to Europe as a whole(7%). Both remain well below the North American average of over 20%.Surplus capacity in core markets will take time to be redirected to non-coremarkets or re-priced. We expect these adjustments to happen over the next 2-3 years. We see this as an important next phase in the European markets’fundamental restructuring into a multi-channel funding model.Figure 1European gross and net debt funding gap, 2013-14, USD bn-20-100102030 Gross debt funding gap Non-bank lenders Surplus/net debt fundingUK FR SE DE IT IE ESSource: DTZ Research
Net Debt Funding Gapwww.dtz.com DTZ Insight 2IntroductionThis is the sixth issue in our Debt Funding Gap report seriesand provides an update on our previous analysis released inNovember 20121.In estimating the net debt funding gap, we adopt the samefour step approach as summarised below:1. Estimate the refinancing gap based on refinancingof maturing debt vintages2. Add the impact of bank regulations to provide thegross debt funding gap3. Estimate the positive impact of non-bank lendingsources4. Subtract the non-bank debt from the gross gap toestimate the net debt funding gapAs in our previous report, our methodology for estimatingthe base refinancing gap remains unchanged. It involves adetailed analysis which takes into account: Vintage of outstanding loans Duration of loans by vintage Loan to value ratios by vintage Historic and future changes in collateral values, and Impact of loan extensionsFigure 2Total outstanding debt to real estate, USD tn024682007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Europe -4%North America -2%Asia Pacific 7%2012 GrowthGlobal 0%Source: DTZ ResearchOur analysis remains focussed on the near term refinancinggap as we have greater oversight on the likely trends infuture capital values and refinancing LTVs. Both theseinputs have a significant impact on the gap. Our model doesextend out over future years, which we present, thoughthere is greater uncertainty over the sizing of this gap.Since our last report we have made adjustments to some ofthe inputs based on discussions with our research and dealteams locally and also updated information provided in theDe Montfort University survey on UK commercial propertylending2.Our starting point this year is the outstanding debt tocommercial real estate (CRE) as at the end of 2012. Thisincludes lending by banks, covered bonds and CMBS. Inreflecting the evolution of the market we also account fornon-bank lenders. We exclude property company bonds asthese are not secured against direct assets. Overall, theamount of debt held against CRE was marginally lowerglobally (-1%) as a rise in Asia Pacific was more than offsetby falls in Europe and North America (Figure 2). As a resultwe have seen the continued reduction in aggregate gearing,also supported by rising equity values (Figure 3).1Net Debt Funding Gap, European gap to be bridged by 2015, UK ahead,14 November 20122The UK Commercial Property Lending Market Research Findings 2012Mid-yearFigure 3Total debt as a proportion of invested stock40%50%60%70%80%2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012GlobalN.AmericaEuropeAsia Pacific66%59%58%54%73%64%63%55%Source: DTZ Research
Net Debt Funding Gapwww.dtz.com DTZ Insight 3Gross debt funding gapDeleveraging underway in major marketsCompared to a year ago deleveraging is now well underwayin many major markets across the globe. Some of thebiggest reductions in debt against CRE have been in the UK,Spain and Ireland (Figure 4); markets that we havepreviously identified as having significant funding gaps. Thereduction reflects high levels of writedowns and/orredemptions which has more than offset any new lending.Reductions were also observed in Germany, theNetherlands and Japan. Of the major markets, France sticksout with a modest increase in outstanding debt.UK, Spain and Japan have highest refinancing gapsDespite the reduction in debt, the UK, Spain and Japan allshow significant refinancing gaps over the next two years2013-14 (Figure 5). The remaining refinancing gap is mostlyacross the rest of Europe, with Italy and Ireland showingrelatively high gaps when compared to Germany.Regulatory burden high, but beginning to softenWe have previously highlighted the significant impact thatregulation will have on the funding gap. In our Novemberreport we highlighted that regulation would more thandouble Europe’s refinancing gap to a gross USD190bn asbanks could be forced to delever their loan books by over7% by the end of 2013.Estimates on the level of deleveraging have not beenupdated by the IMF since our last report, so we haveassumed the same rate. Given that many banks have beenactively shrinking their CRE loan books (Figure 4) we haveallowed for this reduction in our analysis through strippingout any reductions at a country level from the total 7.3%.As a result the regulatory impact is now less than therefinancing gap. The changes show that the UK, Spain, Italyand Ireland are no longer impacted by this reduction giventheir already high refinancing gaps. In contrast France,Germany and the Netherlands all take significant hits.Overall regulation adds USD77bn to Europe’s USD86bnrefinancing gap to a gross USD163bn (Figure 6).We are aware of other regulations being put in place at alocal level, for example slotting in the UK and France. Astransparency is poor with regulators applying differentapproaches both within and across different jurisdictionsmodelling is not yet possible.Figure 4Change in outstanding debt against CRE in selectedmarkets, local currency, 2012-6%-3%0%3%6%Source: DTZ ResearchFigure 5Refinancing gap 2013-14, USD bn0102030Source: DTZ ResearchFigure 6European gross debt funding gap 2013-14, USD bn0306090120150180010203040 Refinanicing gap Regulatory impactSource: DTZ Research
Net Debt Funding Gapwww.dtz.com DTZ Insight 4Deleveraging eases regulatory burdenCompared with our report in November, Europe’s grossdebt funding gap has shrunk by 14% to USD163bn (Figure7). The reduction reflects falls in a number of key marketsincluding Germany, the UK, Italy, Spain and theNetherlands. Despite these falls the gross debt funding gapstill remains elevated.Countries with larger stock figures would be expected tohave larger funding gaps by virtue of their size. Comparing acountry’s funding gap with its stock provides a morerealistic measure. On this basis Ireland remains the mostexposed market on a relative basis, with its gross fundinggap at 6% of its stock (Figure 8). Spain also has a relativelyhigh exposure, with the UK, France and Germany closebehind. Despite having a relatively low gross funding gap,Hungary has a high relative exposure of close to 6%.Across Asia we see no major regulatory impacts as we do inEurope. This largely reflects the lower or negligiblerefinancing gaps. We outline the Asian markets in Figure 8in brown, and these all sit below the European markets on arelative basis. This includes Japan which has Asia’s largest,though shrinking, gap.Figure 7Change in European gross debt funding gap, USD bn050100150200010203040Nov 12 May 13Source: DTZ ResearchFigure 8Gross debt funding gap 2013-14, USD bn, and as a % ofstockFRDEHUIEITNLESUKAUJP0%3%6%9%12%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35%investedstockGrossdebtfundinggapKey Europe AsiaSource: DTZ Research
Net Debt Funding Gapwww.dtz.com DTZ Insight 5Non-bank lendersNon-banks step up lending but funds are delayedAs banks limit new lending or withdraw from marketsaltogether we are seeing a growing number of non-banklenders entering the market. In our previous report, weestimate there to be USD173bn of new lending capacityfrom these non-bank lenders over the period 2013-15 froman estimated 68 funds and insurance companies (Figure 9).We have updated our estimate based on new marketentrants and updates on some of the existing funds andinsurers who were entering the market (see Table 1 for alist of new market entrants over the last six months). Themajority of these funds are domiciled in the UK or US.Although the majority are new funds, we do see some newraising of funds by insurers seeking to target institutionalinvestors who may not have the platform or track recordsfrom which to lend directly.For insurers we have based our estimates on stated lendingtargets. For funds we have used their stated equity raisingtarget. We have also made allowances for new entrants toemerge over the next few years. In Box 1 (overleaf) weoutline the impact these new lenders have had on themarket to date and their likely share of activity over thenear term.Overall, we expect the amount of new lending capacity tobe marginally higher at USD181bn from a total of 80 funds.However, we have revised downwards our near termexpectations. This reflects lower capacity from funds as wedo not expect availability to be as strong as we previouslyestimated. We expect there to be a pick-up in later yearsahead of our previous estimates, especially in 2015.We believe that insurers are in pole position today to takeadvantage of the market, representing more than half ofnew lending capacity. We expect to see this proportion shiftand be more evenly balanced by 2015 (Figure 10).Figure 9Lending capacity from non-bank lenders, USD bn02550751002013 2014 2015Nov 12 May 13No FundsNov 12 = 68May 13 = 80Source: DTZ ResearchFigure 10Lending capacity by lender types0%25%50%75%100%2013 2014 2015FundsInsurersSource: DTZ ResearchTable 1Emerging non-bank lendersLender Type Domicile FocusAEW (UK) Fund UK UKFirst Property Group Fund UK UKAviva Core Senior Fund Fund UK UKPacific Mutual Insurer US UKARES Capital Fund US EuropeAalto Investment Fund UK EuropeRenshaw Bay Fund UK EuropeSource: DTZ Research
Net Debt Funding Gapwww.dtz.com DTZ Insight 6Beyond the growth in new lenders, the appetite amongstcompanies to tap into the bond markets has remainedstrong. 2012 saw close to EUR15bn in new bond issuance inline with our previous predictions. Already in the firstquarter this year we have seen issuance in excess ofEUR4bn, 15% ahead of Q1 2012. On this basis we expect2013 issuance to rise above 2012 levels to around EUR17bn(Figure 11).We have also seen similar trends across Asia Pacific. Japan,which has Asia’s largest gap, saw issuance grow 40% in 2012to nearly USD5bn. Already in Q1 issuance was more thandouble the level a year ago. Assuming growth of 50% thisyear would lead to an additional USD7bn of lendingcapacity.Figure 11Bond issuance by European property companies, EUR bn03691215182006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 ForecastSource: Bloomberg, DTZ ResearchBox 1. Trends in non-bank lendingCompared to North America the European lending market is dominated by banks. Over three quarters of lending in Europehas been provided by banks (Figure 12). Banks in North America make-up around half of lending, with non-banks, notablylife insurers accounting for up to 20% or more, with a similar proportion from CMBS (Figure 12). Lending from insurers hasbeen limited to just a handful of lenders across Europe and their share has to date been relatively small, albeit growing.This reflects a broader range of lenders, including the arrival of US insurers such as TIAA CREF and Mass Mutual(Cornerstone), with traditional European insurers such as AXA, Allianz and Aviva stepping up lending. Sales of bothperforming and non-performing loans has also led to the entry of private equity funds, with other new funds seeking toraise for both senior and junior lending. As a result non-banks’ share has risen to 2% in Europe and an even higher 7% sharein the UK.Looking forward, assuming 75% of non-bank lending capacity is for new loans and that any new lending by banks is offsetby deleveraging, we can estimate future market shares. On this basis non-banks increase their market share to 15% in theUK over the next three years and 7% in Europe (Figure 13). This is still short of the 23% average in North America.Figure 12Outstanding debt by lender type, YE 20120%25%50%75%100%NorthAmericaEurope Asia Pacific UKBanksNon-banksCMBSCovered bondsSource: DTZ ResearchFigure 13Non-bank lenders market share0%5%10%15%20%UK only European totalForecastSource: DTZ Research
Net Debt Funding Gapwww.dtz.com DTZ Insight 7Net debt funding gapGap eroding in major marketsIn analysing the market going forward we have estimatedthe likely target focus of the non-bank lenders at a countrylevel. With bond issuance able to cover much of the gap inAsia Pacific, the focus of this section is on Europe where wesee the biggest challenges.For the major European markets of the UK, France andGermany we have made estimates on capital targetingthem based on stated preferences. For the remainingmarkets we have estimated their share based on therelative size of their debt markets. For bonds we haveapportioned according to trends in raising over 2012. Wehave also made allowances for the major investors whoseportfolios span across Europe.Based on this analysis, we estimate that new non-banklenders could provide sufficient new lending capacity toerode the gross funding gap in the UK, France, Sweden andGermany to zero, with more than sufficient capacity acrossthe UK and France (Figure 14). This reflects the relative sizeof these markets which benefit from major domesticinsurers and funds who are mainly focused on their homemarket.Spain most exposed on a net basisIn Spain we see more limited new lending capacity or bondissuance, which still leaves a significant USD17bn netfunding gap over the next two years (Figure 15). Withtransfers to SAREB completed at the beginning of this yearwe could see further progress in bank writedowns helpingto shrink this gap. Other markets showing marginal risksinclude Ireland, Italy and the Netherlands. With many Dutchbanks under state control we expect government pressuresto force further deleveraging. We also expect NAMA toaccelerate the work out of loans in Ireland.Looking across other markets in Europe, we can comparethe gross and net funding gaps relative to the size ofoutstanding debt (Figure 16). Those markets below thehorizontal dashed line have below average net debt fundinggaps. These include the UK, France and Germany, despitehaving high gross gaps. Spain is highlighted in the top rightas being most exposed. This highlights the need for furtherdeleveraging in the country, although a shift of furtherassets into SAREB may ease some of these burdens.Figure 14European gross and net debt funding gap 2013-14, USD bn-20-100102030 Gross debt funding gap Non-bank lenders Surplus/net debt fundingUK FR SE DE IT IE ESSource: DTZ ResearchFigure 15Surplus and net debt funding gap, USD bn, 2013-14-15-10-505101520Source: DTZ ResearchFigure 16Gross and net debt funding gap compared to debtoutstanding, USD bnFRDEITNLRUESNO SEIEUK100250-505101520250 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40NetdebtfundinggapGross debt funding gapUSJPCNESDEOutstanding debtUSDbnSource: DTZ Research
Net Debt Funding Gapwww.dtz.com DTZ Insight 8Surplus to shift to non-core marketsFor Europe as a whole we see progress in plugging the gap,with Europe’s gap eroding to a net USD50bn, or 30% of itsgross level (Figure 17).As we more closely assess the impact across each market,we expect that the bigger, core lending markets are likely tobenefit more in the short term from this trend. Surpluscapacity in some of these core markets will likely take sometime to be re-directed or re-priced. But we do expect thisadjustment to happen in the next 2-3 years. We see this asan important next phase in the European markets’fundamental restructuring into a multi-channel fundingmodel. With an additional USD124bn of equity capitalavailable, combined this should be more than sufficient tobridge the gap, particularly given a high proportion of this isdirected at non-core assets3.End in sight, but tail of workout will last longerAs we move forward we see reasons to be positive that anend is in sight for the funding gap. We see a shrinkingrefinancing profile across Europe, falling from overUSD300bn this year to USD265bn by 2016 (Figure 18). Wewould expect this to taper away further reflecting therecent reduction in loan extensions.Despite this fall, we still see an increase in the refinancinggap over the near term (Figure 19). This reflects loansoriginated or refinanced at the peak of the market and thathave subsequently extended in recent years. It also reflectslimited growth in values that we expect in the near term,with values falling in some markets.Regulation forces deleveragingGiven the recent growth in alternative lending sources andthe availability of sufficient equity capital, we would expectthis to be more than sufficient to bridge the gap. We expectthe core European markets to be ahead of the curve asbanks actively seek to reduce their balance sheets andmanage the cost of holding problematic loans on theirbalance sheets. Regulatory pressures will also force banksinto working out problematic loans as the capital needed toset aside for loans increases. This will lead to further painand writedowns over the coming years and the likelihood ofincreasing foreclosures as the economic environmentimproves. This would be consistent with behaviours inprevious cycles.3Great Wall of Money, More cross border and non-core coming next, 22March 2013Figure 17European net debt funding gap 2013-14, USD bn0306090120150180Gross debtfunding gapNon-banklendersNet debtfundinggapAvailableequityRefinancingRegulationInsurersFundsBondsNet gapSource: DTZ ResearchFigure 18European refinancing requirements, USD bn0501001502002503003502013 2014 2015 2016Source: DTZ ResearchFigure 19European refinancing gap 2013-16, USD bn01020304050602013 2014 2015 2016UKRest ofEuropeSpainFranceGermanyItalyIrelandSource: DTZ Research
Net Debt Funding Gapwww.dtz.com DTZ Insight 9We also expect to see more activity in markets such as theNetherlands where the state has been proactive inproviding support to the banking sector and pressures willbe greatest to manage solutions. In more exposed marketssuch as Ireland and in particular Spain, which is only justestablishing its bad bank, we see more of a tail risk. With alonger work-out of loans this may impact the speed ofrecovery.Greater transparency required on regulationWhilst we see a step-up in the regulations, there remains alack of transparency both across and within jurisdictions.Given the scale of the crisis over recent years, regulatorsand other market authorities have a clear chance toenhance their stewardship of banks and other lenders intheir markets. A transparent and coordinated approachacross Europe would seem a sensible solution goingforward.Growth in loan sales as lot sizes reduceOver the past six months we have seen the continued use ofloan sales by banks as a means of deleveraging and ensuringthey are adequately capitalised. As expected the typical sizeof loan sales has shrunk over the past three monthsreflecting the limited appetite amongst investors for billionsized loan portfolios.By reducing the typical portfolio size, banks are able toincrease the target investor base. The resulting competitioncombined with more selective portfolios means the typicaldiscounts are generally remaining at or below 50% for thebetter performing loans and the trend for discounts acrossthe board has been reducing over the course of this year(Figure 20). There are occasionally steeper discountsapplied on non-performing loans.We see the continued use of loan sales by banks over thecourse of this year, with a number of key portfolioscurrently on the market. Some of these are more sizeable,reflecting the desire of some banks to completely withdrawfrom lending altogether or from specific markets (Table 2).Although this does not remove the debt burden completely,by transferring loans to more opportunistic funds, weexpect to see further writedowns across the banking sectorand the likelihood of an accelerated workout.Figure 20Growth in loan sales, EUR bn and discounts to face value0%25%50%75%100%0510152025Cum. value of loans (LHS) Discount ─ TrendSource: DTZ ResearchTable 2Key pending loan salesLender Size CommentCo-Op £2.1bn UK loan bookDeutschePostbank£2.5bn Mostly UK loan bookEurohypo £4bn UK loan bookAIB £200m UK hotel loansIBRC €18.7bn UK and Irish loansSource: DTZ Research
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www.dtz.com DTZ Insight 11DTZ ResearchDTZ Research ContactsGlobal Head of ResearchHans VrensenPhone: +44 (0)20 3296 2159Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgHead of Strategy ResearchNigel AlmondPhone: +44 (0)20 3296 2328Email: email@example.comGlobal Head of ForecastingFergus HicksPhone: +44 (0)20 3296 2307Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgHead of Asia Pacific ForecastingKate BarrowPhone: +852 2250 8864Email: email@example.comHead of Research Information ManagementGraham BrutyPhone: +44 (0)20 3296 2297Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgHead of CEMEA ResearchMagali MartonPhone: + 33 1 49 64 49 54Email: email@example.comHead of SEA & ANZ ResearchDominic BrownPhone: +61 (0)2 8243 9999Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgHead of Americas ResearchJohn WickesPhone: +1 312 424 8087Email: email@example.comDTZ Business ContactsHead of Valuation EMEABryn WilliamsPhone: +44 (0)20 3296 4474Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgHead of Valuation UKCharles SmithPhone: +44 (0)20 3296 4411Email: email@example.comHead of Valuation NetherlandsJacques BoevePhone: +31 (0)20 8 407 262Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgHead of Valuation GermanyKlaus DallafinaPhone: +49 (0)69 92 100 400Email: email@example.comHead of Valuation FranceJean-Philippe CarmaransPhone: + 33 1 47 48 77 24Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgDebt Solutions CoordinatorTom NuttallPhone: +44 (0)20 3296 4571Email: email@example.comDebt Solutions IrelandMaurice O’NeillPhone: +353 1 6399657Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgDebt Solutions LondonFergus JackPhone: +44 (0)20 3296 4494Email: email@example.comDebt Solutions UK RegionsRichard MurphyPhone: +44 (0)29 2026 2235Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgDebt Solutions NetherlandsPatrick Steenstra ToussaintPhone: +31 20 571 1427Email: email@example.comDISCLAIMERThis report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without seeking specific,qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, DTZ can take noresponsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within thisreport. Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced orreferred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to DTZ.© DTZ June 2013
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