Doe data and Analysis commodity services

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Published on March 12, 2014

Author: Sreelu42

Source: authorstream.com

PowerPoint Presentation: DoE D a ta and A n aly s i s of C o m m odity A dv is ory S e r vi c es Cr u d e o il du ri n g la t e e v e n i n g tra d e o n Tuesda y , t h e p riva t e s e c t o r major API rel e ased i t s w eek l y i n ven t o ry r epo r t. The i nve n t o ry nu m b er sh o wed th a t cr ud e s t o cks ro s e b y 2 . 6 3 mi l l i o n b ar r els f o r the we e k en d ed 7th March and were h i gh er than expe ct ed. In p ro du c t - re l ated s t o c ks, d istil l a t e s t o c ks f ell b y j u st 8 3 9, 0 00 b ar r els, t h o u g h s o me su p p o rt c a me f r o m t h e g asol in e fro n t , where i n ven t o ries d r o pp ed 2.15 mi l l i o n b ar r els. In the m o r e im p o rta n t r epo r t du e th i s e v en in g fr o m the D o E, w e mi gh t s ee cr ud e su p p l i es a dd i n g b y aro un d 2 mi l l i o n b ar r els, a B l o om b erg su r vey s h o w s . H o w ev er, after l o o ki n g at t h e API d ata, we f e el the r e is a ch an ce f o r h i gh er a dd it i o n in cr ud e su p p l i es p o ss i b le t o d a y. Tra d ers w o u ld also c l o s ely watch the r efi n ery util iz at i o n r a te which u su a l l y s e es a d ecli n e du ri n g t h is t i me o f the year. In t h e o ther s t o c ks fa c t o r a t C u sh i ng , t h e d el i ve r y poi n t for the W TI s t o c ks fell b y o v er a mi l l i o n bar r els a s p er the API nu m b er. F r o m t h e D o E d ata l ast we e k, st o cks sl ipp ed b y 2.66 mi l l i o n b ar r els in to a n ear t w o year l o w o f 32 mi l l i o n for we e k en d ed F ebr u ary 28. We f e el s t o c ks w o u ld c o n ti nu e to show a fa l l in C u sh i n g st o cks. N e v e rthe l ess, tra d e rs should t a ke n o te o f m o v em ent in gu lf st o c ks which i n c r easi n g c o n ti nu o u s l y and part i cu l ar l y since t h e C u sh i n g su p p l i e s have increa s ed. O v erall we h a v e b e en m ai n tai n i n g a b road b earish b ias i n to the c o m m o d i ty f o r last c o up le o f d ays a n d n o th in g has cha n g ed with re g ar d s to t h e b r o a d er c u es f o r t h e c o mm o d ity t o d a y. Wh i le t h e API i n ven t o r y report was m i xe d , we are n o t ex p e cting a n y p o s i ti v ism o u t o f the D o E r epo r t t o n i gh t. Wh i le g lo b a l mar k ets a c ti v i t y c o n ti nu es to b e ca u t i o u s du e t o w e akness in C h i n a, we f e el c r ud e also w o u ld r e main su b du ed g lo b al l y. On l y risk re m ai n s is s o m e th in g n egative h a pp en in g in Ukrai ne . H o w e ver, till that t i me at lea s t, w e w o u ld c o n ti n u e t o r e c o m mend s ell in g in t h e c o mm o d ity Glo b al mar k et a n alysi s : There are a few ess e n t i al e v ents that are cu r rently p l aying o u t in the whole fi n a n cial m ar k ets w h ich c a nn o t b e d is r ega rd ed. The c o n ti n u o u s R u ssia - U krai n e t ensions The C h i ne se ec o n o mic s l o w d o wn af f ec t i n g t h e w h o l e w o rl d . We beli e ve that t h ese e v e n ts are in s om e way h a vi n g a ve r y st r o n g i n fl u ence o n t h e ma r ke t s. F r o m t h e ener g y f r o nt, cr u d e o il h as c o me b a c k d o wn b el o w $1 00 a n d th i s m o r n i n g is tra d i n g at $99. 4 2 for the W TI b enc h marked A p ril f u tures c o n tra c t at N Y M E X. W e b eli e ve that the h i gh er cr ud e s t o c kp i les a n d C h i n ese c o n cerns are pu l l i n g the c o m m o d i t y d o wn a nd , it is l i ke l y that i t may r e main l o wer for the d ay. W e h a v e the DOE p e tr o le u m i n ven t o ry d ata f r o m the U S , which we b el i e v e will sh o w a g o o d o f a m o un t su rg e in st o c kp i le s . So for the d a y , we h o ld a b earish view o n o i l . Th e re are n o m a jor d ata d u e t o d ay. C o mm od i t y Adv i s o r y Se r vi c e s SELL N A T UR A L GAS M CX M AR BE L OW 2 8 0 S L 2 84 . 5 T G T 2 75 T od a y E c ono m i c D a ta I n d i c a t o r s : DA T E TIME Region Indic a t or Pe r i o d Su r vey Pr i o r 12. 0 3. 1 4 0 5 : 2 0 GE Whole s ale Price I nd ex Y o Y Feb --- - 1.7% 12. 0 3. 1 4 0 5 : 2 0 JN Tertia r y I ndu stry I nd ex M o M J an 0. 6 % - 0.4% 12. 0 3. 1 4 1 5 : 0 0 JN Co n su m er C o n fi d ence I nd e x Feb 40.0 40.5 12. 0 3. 1 4 1 5 : 3 0 UK Tra d e Ba l a n c e J an Ye n 2 3 0 0 Ye n 1 0 2 6 12. 0 3. 1 4 1 5 : 3 0 EC I n du strial P r o du cti o n SA M o M J an 0.5% - 0.7% 12. 0 3. 1 4 1 6 : 3 0 EC I n du strial P r o du cti o n W D A Y o Y J an 1.9% 0.5% 12. 0 3. 1 4 1 7 : 3 0 US MBA M o r tga g e A p p l i cat i o n s Ma r- 07 --- 9.4% 12. 0 3. 1 4 1 7 : 3 0 IN I n du strial P r o du cti o n Y o Y J an - 0.9% - 0.6% 12. 0 3. 1 4 2 3 : 3 0 IN CPI Y o Y Feb 8.3% 8.8%

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