Published on August 5, 2009
Giorgio Pauletto Observatoire technologique Incubator of change and innovation engine Centre des technologies de l'information DCTI, Etat de Genève Département des constructions et des technologies de l'information Centre des technologies de l'information 15.09.08 - Page 1
Observatoire technologique E-Society Vison OT Business Foresight Information Partnerships Technology http://ot.ge.ch/ot Département des constructions et des technologies de l'information Centre des technologies de l'information 15.09.08 - Page 2
Activities • Strategic Foresight • How do society and technology influence each other? • Provide advice to the State of Geneva and CIO on strategies and technologies • Lead an active work group on Information Systems Governance • Open conference « Journée de rencontre » (Nov 21 on Opening Public Data) Département des constructions et des technologies de l'information Centre des technologies de l'information 15.09.08 - Page 3
Globalization Personalization Transparency Aesthetics Long tail Governance Innovation Business models Open Source Web 2.0 Traceability Singularity Services Security Virtualization Environment Sustainability
? ● What are the main trends that will have an impact on ICT in 2 to 5 years? ● How can we take them into account in our strategies and policies? ● How can we translate them into operational actions?
Cycles Technology Economy Society Time
Digital Business Macro Trends
Globalized Microbusiness Mobiles Western Consumer n Saturation Social Software IT Accelerators n Global online consumers Deepening Connected Mass Emerging Consumption Market microfinance Development Web Users Collaborative n and remote working www Broadband Production n Cost Innovation Gb
New Management Science Graphics Business Applies p Technology Advances Processors IT Accelerators p Simulation Dynamic Management Metadata business Science Seeks New Global methods Optimization Competition Mathematical Increases Scale, i q Methods Standardization management Sensors science (derivatives) $ Services science Process Mgmt Flattening World, Reduces "Easy" Margin Opportunities %
Issue 16.08 June 2008
Technological Environmentalism Wireless Networks Technological Society n Web users IT Accelerators n www Carbon credits and e-trading Exploiting Metadata New and Localized Cheaper Pollutes micro-generation Technologies Earth and i q Pollution Atmosphere sensors Sensors Life cycle $ traceability Requiring New Process Mgmt Policies and Controls %
Global IT strategy for CO2 reductions, June 2008, WWF
Collective Intelligence SOA New Technology % Creates New Utility Potential Infrastructure $ IT Accelerators Tagging : Web 2.0 Web Users "Open" Empowerment development Disrupts: New But "Network Breakthroughs Effects" Are Prediction Arise Needed to www n markets Realize It Metadata Wikis Social i q networking Mass Blogs Participation Social Software High Creates performance Unintended workplace Consequences n
Design Innovation Mobiles "Aesthetic Need" n Market Grows Social Software IT Accelerators n Commoditization Display New "materials" New Levels technology Power design of Aesthetic Design tools Achievement Applied to q Technology Design discourse Graphics Emergence of service and experience design p Technology Memory Attracts More Creative Users $
Proactive Transparency Mobiles "IT Penetrates Deeper Into n Everyday Business and Social Personal Life" Software IT Accelerators Consumerization n Digital native IT Industry generation Creates Power Elite Memory Better Tools; Free agent Store, Share Regulators and Network workforce Require $ Information in Attention More Disclosure New Ways Channels economy Globalized capital Consumers, n Investors, Employees Storage Demand $ Access to Compete
Digital Business Macro Trends • Globalized Microbusiness • New Management Science • Technological Environmentalism • Collective Intelligence • Design Innovation • Proactive Transparency
“ The future is already here; ” it's just not very evenly distributed. William Gibson
5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008 Software as a Service Cloud Open Source Computing Consum- Web 2.0 erization
5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008 Software as a Service Software using an open source license, built on open standards, and supported by an active community. Cloud Open Source Cheap and easy to Computing implement, it allows for a quick uptake at a high professional level. Ex: Linux, OpenOffice.org, Firefox, Apache, ... Consum- Web 2.0 erization
5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008 Software as a Service Hosted application that offers services either directly on the web or through APIs (often via Cloud Webservices or REST Open Source Computing architectures). Eliminates the need to install and run the app locally simplifying software maintenance, operation, and support. Consum- Ex: Gmail, Hotmail, Web 2.0 Google Docs, OpenId, erization Salesforce, ...
5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008 Software as a Service World scale size hardware and software architectures to host services on the web. This allows services to Cloud Open Source become more scalable, Computing flexible, and quickly deployed. Ex: Amazon Elastic Computing Cloud EC2 et Simple Storage Service S3, Consum- Google App Engine, ... Web 2.0 erization
5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008 Software as a Service Cloud Open Source Users are increasingly digital Computing natives that bring their own technology and habits into organizations. Resistance is futile: it's usually better to adapt than to ignore them. Web 2.0 Consum- Ex: Web (port 80), Chat, erization USB keys, external email Skype, iPhone, ...
5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008 Software as a Service The web is a new Open Source Cloud programmable platform, Computing putting data and users at its core, enabling network effects, mashing-up services, in a perpetual beta version, and relying on lightweight business models. Consum- Web 2.0 erization Ex: LinkedIn, MySpace, Flickr, YouTube, Wikipedia, ...
One more thing... Cheap(er) devices are Low cost Low energy appearing that will take over the usual PC / laptop paradigm. Wireless communication is changing the way people work, live, love, and relate to each other through online applications. Ex: OLPC, Eee-PC, Advanced cell phones, ...
Disruptive IT Trends in 2008 Software as a Service Cloud Open Source Computing + Low cost Low energy Consum- Web 2.0 erization
Sources ● Examples and reports taken from the web, conferences, and personal communications ● Gartner Group ● Wired ● Wikipedia
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