Published on February 19, 2014
Global Research Limited COMEX Report 19th February, 2014
19th February,2014 Global Research Limited Global Economic Data PRV EXP IMPACT 0.99M 0.98M STRONG PPI m/m 0.4% 0.2% STRONG Core PPI m/m 0.3% 0.2% MEDIUM DATE TIME: IST 19.02.14 7:00 PM Building Permits 19.02.14 7:00 PM 19.02.14 7:00 PM DATA Building Permits Source Measures Usual Effect Frequency Census Bureau (latest release) Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month; Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends; Next Release March 18, 2014 FF Notes While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12); Why Traders Care It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building; Also Called 2 Residential Building Permits; www.capitalvia.com
19th February,2014 Global Research Limited PPI m/m Source FF Alert Measures Usual Effect Frequency Department of Labor (latest release) Source changed series calculation formula as of this release; Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers; Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends; Next Release Mar 14, 2014 FF Notes Tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of the CPI data because the reports are significantly correlated; Core PPI m/m Source FF Alert Measures Usual Effect Frequency Department of Labor (latest release) Source changed series calculation formula as of this release; Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food, energy, and trade; Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends; Next Release FF Notes Food, energy, and trade prices make up about 40% of overall PPI which tends to mute the importance of the Core data; Also Called 3 Mar 14, 2014 Core Finished Goods PPI, Core PPI for Final Demand; www.capitalvia.com
19th February,2014 Gold Global Research Limited Gold edged marginally lower overnight to open at the intraday low of 1317.00/1318.00. It moved up higher following weaker- thanexpected U.S data that included a drop in NY Fed manufacturing activity and a decline in homebuilder confidence as investors remain cautious on global economic growth. The metal consolidated to close at the session high of 1324.00/1325.00. Gold closed lower today at 1324, unable to breach resistance in the 1337 area after moving from a low of 1182 to a high of 1331 since the end of 2013. Support is at 1308, the 50% retracement of the last downtrend (August to December 2013), followed by the 200-day moving average at 1303. RSI in Gold on the daily chart had moved into serious 'overbought' territory at 75.60, so a correction is likely healthy for the uptrend. We may see a temporary pullback into the 1284 area. We would re-assess our bullish view if gold breaches 1278 on the downside Silver Silver moved marginally higher overnight to open at 21.50/21.55, which was also the low of the day. It moved to a high of 21.88/21.93 prior to concluding the session at 21.87/21.92. Silver closed higher at 21.92, forming a potential hanging man in the candlestick charts. A hanging man, as implied by the name, would be bearish, but given it follows a strong advance, it must be confirmed by a down-day tomorrow. The strong breakout on Friday through resistance in the 20.64 area was bullish, and was confirmed by a breakout in RSI to a new 6-month high in the 76.50 area. There is a downtrend in play off the April 2011 high which may act as resistance. This downtrend currently comes in at 22.51. The gold-silver ratio made another bearish drop today after a big drop on Friday. The ratio is currently trading at 60.43. It has now definitively broken its uptrend which had support in the 61.94 area – this area should now act as resistance. This latest move opens up a full retracement to the 57.09 low from August 2013. 4 www.capitalvia.com
19th February,2014 Copper Crude Global Research Limited Copper settled up 0.8% as support from a strong euro helped cushion concerns about short-term demand in China after its central bank moved to tighten the money supply. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued cash-draining forward bond repurchase agreements on Tuesday, sucking $7.9 billion out of the system, pushing up the cost of money after unexpectedly strong credit growth in January. China is the biggest consumer of copper, which is used in construction and power cables. It imported record volumes of copper last month, partly for consumption and partly to ease tight credit conditions. Goldman Sachs sees Chinese bonded inventories at 700,000 tonnes, up from 550,000 tonnes since the beginning of the year, it said in a note. The euro hit a seven-week high against the dollar, which was trading at a six-week low against a basket of currencies. In the week ahead, the focus will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve's tapering of monetary stimulus, with the release of its minutes on Wednesday, and on China's slowdown, with a purchasing managers' index due on Thursday. Both factors have been behind this year's sell-off in emerging markets. U.S. manufacturing last week recorded its biggest drop in more than 4-1/2 years in January as cold weather disrupted production. It was the latest indication that the world's biggest economy got off to a weak start this year. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at USD102.45 a barrel during Asian trading, up 0.34%.On Tuesday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD102.27 a barrel and a high of USD102.66 a barrel to settle at 102.10 a barrel. Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD100.31 a barrel, the earlier low, and resistance at USD102.95 a barrel, the high from Oct. 16.Updated weather forecasting models indicated that a strong winter storm was set to sweep over the northeastern U.S. on Tuesday and bring strong winds and fresh snowfall. Frigid weather reports sent crude prices rising on sentiments demand for heating oil will climb as temperatures fall across the heavilypopulated northeastern U.S.Soft data out of the U.S. sent prices rising as well due to the monetary implications they may bring. The dollar weakened after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that its general business conditions index came in at 4.48 for February, down from a 20-month high of 12.51 in January. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 9.00. Nymex crude prices continued to rise during Asian trading hours on Wednesday after hitting four-month highs on strong U.S. data, a winter storm and supply concerns in the Middle East. 5 www.capitalvia.com
Global Research Limited Technical levels Support1 Support2 GOLD 1306 1294 1325 1332 SILVER 20.74 20.07 21.79 22.16 COPPER 3.2493 3.2341 3.2748 3.2851 CRUDE 99.66 98.62 100.70 101.10 Resistance1 Resistance2 Disclaimer The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Investment in Stocks has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above. The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. CapitalVia does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Analyst or any person related to CapitalVia might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as INDEX a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for. Contact Us ROLLOVER Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken. Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Contact Number: Ahmedabad: Corporate Office Address: Hotline : +91-91790-02828 Fax : +91-731-4238085 CapitalVia Global Research Limited Ebony Business Centre 703, Shikhar Complex, Nr. Vadilal House, Mithakali Six Roads, Ahmedabad - 380009 No. 99, 1st Floor, Surya Complex R. V. Road, Basavangudi Opposite Lalbagh West Gate Indore: Singapore: CapitalVia Global Research Limited No. 506 West, Corporate House 169, R. N. T. Marg, Near D. A. V. V CapitalVia Global Research Pvt. Ltd. Block 2 Balestier Road #04-665 Balestier Hill Shopping Centre You Can Send Us DD & Communication @ Postal Address: CapitalVia Global Research Limited, No. 99, 1st Floor, Surya Complex, R. V. Road, Basavanagudi, Opposite Lalbagh West Gate, Bangalore - 560004 www.capitalvia.com
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