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D1S2P2 Bruning IGBP2007

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Published on February 20, 2008

Author: Dorotea

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EC Stratospheric Research Present and Future Claus Brüning Climate change and environmental risks Unit European Commission - DG Research Environment Directorate :  EC Stratospheric Research Present and Future Claus Brüning Climate change and environmental risks Unit European Commission - DG Research Environment Directorate IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium 17-18th September 2007 Overview:  Stratospheric research in the 5th Framework Programme (1998-2002) - some pertinent results Climate Change and Ozone Depletion research topics in the 6th Framework Programme (2003-2006) Outlook Stratospheric Research in the 7th Framework Programme (2007-2013) The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report: Research-policy interface Overview Slide3:  FP5 (1998-2002): Key Action approach: Integration of the environmental dimension in research; strong attention to climate, tropospheric and stratospheric processes, support of policy relevant research Over 180 research projects funded in areas (budget: 250 Mill ECU): - Climate change prediction - Climate dynamics and abrupt changes - Interactions between ecosystems and carbon/nitrogen cycle - Atmospheric composition Change - Stratospheric ozone depletion - Mitigation and adaptation - European contribution to global observation systems - Natural hazards research Contributing to IGBP, WCRP, IHDP, IPCC and WMO Ozone Assessments FP5 (1998-2002) Stratospheric ozone depletion:  FP5 (1998-2002) Stratospheric ozone depletion Basic objectives: quantification and prediction of ozone depletion in the stratosphere, quantification and prediction of UV-radiation levels at the Earth’s surface. Anthropogenic and natural emissions of ozone depleting substances and their transformations Reduction of uncertainties in stratospheric-tropospheric exchange processes Impacts of aircraft emissions Ozone loss in the stratosphere over Europe and its links with the polar, tropical regions and the upper troposphere Understanding of stratospheric cooling and its links to tropospheric global warming Atmospheric UV-radiation field and its changes in the European region Area: Stratospheric ozone depletion:  Area: Stratospheric ozone depletion Research in FP5 mainly organised through clusters: Stratospheric Ozone Loss (SOLO) cluster (6 projects) aims to further our understanding of the processes that lead to stratospheric ozone loss in the Arctic during the winter and spring Atmospheric UV radiation (ATUV) cluster (3 projects) aims to further our understanding of the evolution of UV radiation at the Earth's surface and in the atmosphere over the last ten years. Ozone-Climate Interaction (OCLI) cluster (5 Projects) studies the physical and chemical impacts on climate in the past caused by variations in stratospheric ozone and to what extent these variations can be explained by natural and / or anthropogenic forcing Global Atmospheric Observations (GATO) cluster (5 projects) Coordination of research related to atmospheric observations on global and long term time scale Coordination of Research for the Study of Air-craft impact on the Environment (CORSAIRE) cluster (9 projects) Some pertinent results from FP5 projects::  Quantification of ozone depletion in relation to climate change For the first time, and based on observations, M. Rex and colleagues have been able to quantify the relation between Arctic ozone loss and changes in climate. They found ozone destruction in the Northern Polar region to be three times more sensitive to changes in climate than previously thought. Cooling trend of the polar stratosphere – cold winters become colder. TRADEOFF (Aircraft Emissions: Contribution of Different Climate Components to Changes in Radiative Forcing): R. Sausen and colleagues found that aviation emission impacts on cirrus clouds three times larger than that from CO2 emissions alone on climate. TROCCINOX (Tropical Convection, Cirrus and Nitrogen Oxides Experiment) U. Schumann and colleagues revised the annual lighting produced NOx from experiments: LNOx = 3.6 +- 1.9 Tg/a TROCCINOX (LNOx =5+-2 Tg/a old data) (aircraft NOx about 0.7-1.0 Tg/a) Some pertinent results from FP5 projects: FP6 (2002-2006): Global Change and Ecosystems Programme :  FP6 (2002-2006): Global Change and Ecosystems Programme Support of integrated multidisciplinary research, sustainability to be integrated in all areas of research, especially Energy, Transport and Agriculture, implemented mainly through Integrated Projects (IPs) Area I: Impact and mechanisms of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric pollutants on climate, ozone depletion and carbon sinks Research priorities I.1 Carbon and nitrogen cycles: sources and sinks I.2 Atmospheric pollutants and their regional impacts I.3 Climate dynamics and variability I.4 Prediction of climate change and its impacts I.5 Stratospheric ozone and climate interactions I.6 Adaptation and mitigation strategies FP6 (2002-2006): Global Change and Ecosystems Programme :  FP6 (2002-2006): Global Change and Ecosystems Programme Topic I.5. Stratospheric Ozone and Climate Interactions Core objectives Future stratospheric ozone levels Impact of Climate Change on the Stratosphere UV Radiation Aviation impacts on the UTLS Ongoing FP6 research projects: IP SCOUT-O3 (Stratosphere-Climate links with emphasis On The UTLS):  Ongoing FP6 research projects: IP SCOUT-O3 (Stratosphere-Climate links with emphasis On The UTLS) Objectives: To better understand fundamental atmospheric processes to improve chemistry/climate models to assess the future evolution of the ozone layer and surface UV-levels Co-ordinator: J. Pyle, University of Cambridge Participants: 58 from 20 countries Duration: May 2004 to April 2009 EC funding: 15.0 M€ Total costs 22.0 M€ Ongoing FP6 research projects: IP QUANTIFY (Quantifying the Climate Impact of global and European Transport Systems) :  Ongoing FP6 research projects: IP QUANTIFY (Quantifying the Climate Impact of global and European Transport Systems) Objectives: To quantify the climate impact of the global and European transport systems for the present situation and for different scenarios of future development. Co-ordinator: R. Sausen, DLR-IPA Participants: 35 from 16 countries Duration: March 2005 to February 2010 EC funding: 8.0 M€ Total costs: 12.0 M€ Ongoing FP6 research projects : IP GEOMON (Global Earth Observation and Monitoring):  Ongoing FP6 research projects : IP GEOMON (Global Earth Observation and Monitoring) Objectives: To sustain and analyze European ground-based observations of atmospheric compositions to quantify and understand the ongoing changes. Co-ordinator: P. CIAIS, CEA, FR Participants: 37 from 15 countries Duration: January 2007 to December 2011 EC funding proposed: 6.6 M€ Total costs: 10.0 M€ Ongoing FP6 research projects: Specific Support Action ATTICA (European Assessment of the Transport Impacts on Climate Change and Ozone Depletion) :  Ongoing FP6 research projects: Specific Support Action ATTICA (European Assessment of the Transport Impacts on Climate Change and Ozone Depletion) Objective: Assess the impact of aviation, shipping and road transport on climate and ozone depletion Co-ordinator: R. Sausen, DLR, Germany Proposed budget: 680.000 EURO HCFC-Works shop (specific policy support action) Objective: Supporting developing countries to reduce consumption of HCFCs by providing information of alternatives, technology transfer etc., aiming at an early phase-out of HCFCs use. Co-ordinator: M. Wagner, ICF Consulting Proposed budget: 300.000 EURO FP7(2007-2013) Environment (including climate change) Programme:  FP7(2007-2013) Environment (including climate change) Programme Objectives: To promote sustainable management of the Environment and its resources through advancing our knowledge on the interactions between climate, biosphere, ecosystems and Human activities Stratospheric Research will be mainly implemented under Activity 6.1. Climate Change Pollution and Risks FP7(2007-2013) Environment (including climate change) Programme:  FP7(2007-2013) Environment (including climate change) Programme 6.1.1 Climate change pollution and risks area 1: The Earth System and Climate: Functioning and abrupt changes area 2: Emissions and Pressures: natural and anthropogenic area 3: The Global Carbon cycle - GreenHouse Gas budget area 4: Future Climate area 5: Climate Change Natural and Socio-economic Impacts area 6. Response strategies: Adaptation, Mitigation and Policies 6.1.2 Environment and Health area 1: Health effects of exposure to environmental stressors area 2: Integrated approaches for environment and health risk assessment area 3: Delivery of methods and decision support tools for risk analysis and policy development 6.1.3 Natural Hazards FP7(2007-2013) :  FP7(2007-2013) Indicative topics for the second call in FP7 (2008) related to UV and stratospheric research 6.1.1 Climate change pollution and risks area 2: Emissions and Pressures: natural and anthropogenic - Climate-chemistry interactions in the Stratosphere related to Ozone depletion area 6: Response strategies: Adaptation, Mitigation and Policies - Implications and risks of novel options to limit climate change 6.1.2 Environment and Health area 1: Health effects of exposure to environmental stressors - Quantification of changing UV surface radiation levels and its impacts on human health The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report: Research-policy interface :  The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report: Research-policy interface The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report is an excellent document and should help guiding policy makers on how to proceed safeguarding the ozone layer. It has been established with significant contributions from the European stratospheric science community from projects funded by past and ongoing the EC research Framework Programmes. The dissemination of the results of the report is an important issue. Actions: The European Commission has organised an internal Climate Change Seminar on 27 June in Brussels for Commission services, on Climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery – a coupled problem! Results of the 2006 "WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion" (Martin Dameris, DLR, DE) The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report: Research-policy interface:  The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report: Research-policy interface translation of complex scientific results into simplified messages for the public is a non-trivial problem. Some basic conclusions from the seminar: Climate change already has and will further cool the stratosphere. Future increases of greenhouse gas concentrations will contribute to the average cooling in the stratosphere. A cooler stratosphere over polar regions will lead to an increase in the amount of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). PSCs plus high concentration of halogen components are responsible for polar ozone depletion and the Antarctic ozone hole. The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report: Research-policy interface:  The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report: Research-policy interface Therefore there is a (high) risk that Climate Change and high concentration of halogen (chlorine) components in the stratosphere will cause the development of an ozone hole even over arctic polar region in spring time. For this reason it is essential that the Montreal Protocol, the reduction of emissions CFCs, HCFCs etc. is implemented consequently. Only under the condition that the implementation of the Montreal Protocol remains on track, atmospheric chlorine loads will decrease further and that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are cut, a lasting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer is expected. The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report: Research-policy interface:  The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report: Research-policy interface Final remarks It’s probably fair to say that EC Framework Programmes became a very effective tool to integrate European research, very fruitful in the area of stratospheric research were international collaboration is essential. Based on the results of the WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment report and the pending research questions, stratospheric research, as already indicated, will remain a priority within 7th Framework Programme. For further information please contact the web: http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/

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