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CSULB SCAG Forecast

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Information about CSULB SCAG Forecast
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Published on February 27, 2008

Author: Rafael

Source: authorstream.com

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Slide1:  CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY LONG BEACH Southern California Regional Economic Forecast Lisa M. Grobar, Ph. D. Director, CSULB Economic Forecast Project Slide2:  National Outlook 2003 2004 2005 GDP Growth 3.0% 4.4% 3.2% Inflation 2.3% 2.7% 2.2% Unemployment 6.0% 5.5% 5.4% Federal Funds Rate 1.1% 1.3% 2.6% Forecast for 2004-2005:  Forecast for 2004-2005 GDP growth in 2004 best year since 1999 Next year, economy slows in response to high oil prices and Fed tightening A weaker dollar and an improving world economy will boost exports and is welcomed news to manufacturers Healthy job formation in 2004 & 2005 but the unemployment rate will be slow in coming down The Region’s Economy Is Showing Some Improvement:  The Region’s Economy Is Showing Some Improvement Total Nonfarm Employment Growth Region and the Nation:  Total Nonfarm Employment Growth Region and the Nation Factors Influencing the Region 2005-2007:  Factors Influencing the Region 2005-2007 Long anticipated recovery in national employment growth Manufacturing drag eases substantially Changes in macroeconomic “fundamentals” Exchange rate Interest rates Budgetary problems in Sacramento Regional Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth:  Regional Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth forecast Regional Leisure & Hospitality Employment Growth:  Regional Leisure & Hospitality Employment Growth forecast Regional Construction Employment Growth:  Regional Construction Employment Growth forecast Regional Health Services Employment Growth:  Regional Health Services Employment Growth forecast Regional State & Local Gov’t Employment Growth:  Regional State & Local Gov’t Employment Growth forecast Regional Total Nonfarm Employment Growth:  Regional Total Nonfarm Employment Growth forecast Regional Taxable Sales:  Regional Taxable Sales forecast Economic Outlook Los Angeles County:  Economic Outlook Los Angeles County Los Angeles County Economy:  Los Angeles County Economy Los Angeles County is “most improved” county this year. Manufacturing losses are beginning to decelerate, particularly in durables Aerospace manufacturing is adding jobs! Business Services are growing Double-digit growth in employment services Los Angeles County Job Losses in Durable Manufacturing:  Los Angeles County Job Losses in Durable Manufacturing Los Angeles County 2004 Aerospace Manufacturing Employment:  Los Angeles County 2004 Aerospace Manufacturing Employment Los Angeles County: Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth:  Los Angeles County: Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth forecast Los Angeles County Health and Business Services:  Los Angeles County Health and Business Services forecast percent Los Angeles Hotel Occupancy Rates:  Los Angeles Hotel Occupancy Rates PKF Consulting Los Angeles County Leisure and Hospitality:  Los Angeles County Leisure and Hospitality forecast Los Angeles County:  Los Angeles County Other bright spots include construction, finance and real estate, transportation Some growth in retail trade employment Weak spots: information (motion pictures), state & local government Motion Picture Industry Production Days in Los Angeles:  Motion Picture Industry Production Days in Los Angeles Source: Entertainment Industry Development Corp. Los Angeles County Total Nonfarm Employment Growth:  Los Angeles County Total Nonfarm Employment Growth forecast Economic Outlook Ventura and Imperial Counties:  Economic Outlook Ventura and Imperial Counties Ventura County Construction Employment Growth:  Ventura County Construction Employment Growth percent Ventura County:  Ventura County Sources of strength: professional & business services, education & health services, trade, and real estate Weakness similar to region – state & local government, information, little growth in manufacturing Ventura County Total Nonfarm Employment Growth:  Ventura County Total Nonfarm Employment Growth forecast Imperial County:  Imperial County Imperial County Employment:  Imperial County Employment Imperial County Employment (thousands of jobs):  Imperial County Employment (thousands of jobs) Imperial County State & Local Gov’t Employment:  Imperial County State & Local Gov’t Employment forecast Imperial County Total Nonfarm Employment:  Imperial County Total Nonfarm Employment forecast A Note on Housing:  A Note on Housing Affordability in the region is now at record-low levels, while appreciation rates remain well into the double-digits. Will higher interest rates bring about a “soft landing” in region’s housing market? The last two cycles ended with a significant shock [year-to-year percentage change in median price] :  The last two cycles ended with a significant shock [year-to-year percentage change in median price] 1982: mortgage rates reach 17.4% 1990-93: region loses half million jobs Summary:  Summary The regional economy continues to improve, but growth will still be below-average this year. We expect to see a significant acceleration in employment growth in 2005, mirroring national trends. Performance of sectors will change as macro fundamentals change – higher interest rates will slow housing market – but by how much?

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