Cruise 2009 Presentation

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Information about Cruise 2009 Presentation
ltd

Published on February 2, 2009

Author: roachag

Source: slideshare.net

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies Cruise The Crop Markets by John Roach January 18 - 24, 2009 Day 1

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Why were grain prices so high?

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Population Growth Rates Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Global Meat beef + pork + chickens & turkeys Production, per capita consumption, and population Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017.

Dollar Index © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Dollar Value Down 40% Since 2002 Peak

Dollar Index

DJ / AIG Commodity Index © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Index Up 180% Since 2002 Low

DJ / AIG Commodity Index

DJ / AIG Commodity Index © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Index Up 180% Since 2002 Low

DJ / AIG Commodity Index

DJ / AIG Commodity Index Composition © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Energy: 37.6% Livestock: 6.97% Grains: 16.57% Base Metals: 19.54% Precious Metals: 8.99% Softs: 7.59% Soybean Oil: 2.74%

DJ / AIG Commodity Index Composition

Energy: 37.6%

Livestock: 6.97%

Grains: 16.57%

Base Metals: 19.54%

Precious Metals: 8.99%

Softs: 7.59%

Soybean Oil: 2.74%

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What happened to cause prices to drop?

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. USDA 2008 World Corn Yields 6/10/08 149.0 Bu/Acre U.S. 87.6 Bu/Acre Chinese 78.1 Bu/Acre World 60.1 Bu/Acre Non – U.S.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. There will not be enough money to raise crops this big next year

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. There will not be enough money to raise crops this big next year

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World coarse grain ending stocks tight U.S. ending stocks are tight Exports off to slow start Ethanol demand slowing We still need a big corn crop every year Price peak due in Mar – June in 2009 Corn Situation and Price Outlook

World coarse grain ending stocks tight

U.S. ending stocks are tight

Exports off to slow start

Ethanol demand slowing

We still need a big corn crop every year

Price peak due in Mar – June in 2009

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World soybean ending stocks not as tight as corn or wheat, but demand is solid. US stocks very tight Look for shrinking 2009 crop in S. America Prices currently tied to China demand and S. American weather Bean Situation and Price Outlook

World soybean ending stocks not as tight as corn or wheat, but demand is solid.

US stocks very tight

Look for shrinking 2009 crop in S. America

Prices currently tied to China demand and S. American weather

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World wheat ending stocks burdensome in 2009 US stocks adequate Look for shrinking 2009 world crop Prices currently and likely to be dominated by former Soviet Union production Wheat Situation and Price Outlook

World wheat ending stocks burdensome in 2009

US stocks adequate

Look for shrinking 2009 world crop

Prices currently and likely to be dominated by former Soviet Union production

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sales Plan Make as many of your sales as possible during the months of March, April, May and June. Avoid October and November Sell in increments to take advantage of several market peaks using Roach Ag Sell Signals Buy puts on unsold new crop production with either profit goal or insurance goal

Make as many of your sales as possible during the months of March, April, May and June. Avoid October and November

Sell in increments to take advantage of several market peaks using Roach Ag Sell Signals

Buy puts on unsold new crop production with either profit goal or insurance goal

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year March through June is usually best Rule # 1

Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year

March through June is usually best

December 2007 Corn © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal

December 2007 Corn

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell & Buy Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal Rule # 2

Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring and tie that % to the your crop insurance policy coverage level Rule # 3

Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring and tie that % to the your crop insurance policy coverage level

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Make sure you have enough on-farm or other owned storage to hold the balance of a crop using your best ever yields Rule # 4

Make sure you have enough on-farm or other owned storage to hold the balance of a crop using your best ever yields

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Make sure you sell enough in the spring prior to harvest to generate necessary cash-flow from harvest through February Rule # 5

Make sure you sell enough in the spring prior to harvest to generate necessary cash-flow from harvest through February

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Split your old crop bushels and new crop contracts into between 3 and 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal Rule # 6

Split your old crop bushels and new crop contracts into between 3 and 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing Plan Worksheet

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http://www.roachag.com

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