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Conway 2

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Published on October 24, 2007

Author: Sevastian

Source: authorstream.com

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Modelling water resources, climate variability and climate impacts: some cases studies:  Modelling water resources, climate variability and climate impacts: some cases studies Declan Conway University of East Anglia UK Methods - analogues and impacts models Analogues - examples from Africa Impacts and uncertainty – the Nile Basin Conclusions, discussion points Future climate change scenarios with impacts models:  Future climate change scenarios with impacts models Process models e.g. crop models, hydrological models, disease vector models Models run with ‘future climate scenarios’ BUT... Generally consider climate change in isolation, no allowance for adaptation or societal change Analogues:  Analogues Examples from past variability warm / cool, wet / dry Identify sensitivity of environmental and societal systems Analyse response strategies BUT…. Future climate change may be different (magnitude and forcing) Data intensive, detailed analysis Slide4:  Upper Niger Lake Victoria Blue Nile Slide5:  1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Niger; Change ? Rapid/gradual Persisted Blue Nile; Gradual Decadel variability Lake Victoria; Rapid Slow return ? Impacts of 1997 extreme rainfall in East Africa:  Impacts of 1997 extreme rainfall in East Africa Slide7:  Main Nile Atbara Blue Nile Sobat E. Lakes L Victoria Tana river Congo Zambezi Slide8:  Main Nile Atbara Blue Nile Sobat E. Lakes L Victoria Tana river Congo Zambezi 1878 1961 1997 Climate and water resources -past variability in Africa:  Climate and water resources -past variability in Africa High levels of variability during 20th C Past rainfall variability greater than GCM signal, e.g. Sahel Prolonged change in flow regimes in West Africa / Sahel Extreme events and trends in the Nile Basin rich source of analogues Future Climate Impacts and Uncertainty in the Nile Basin:  Future Climate Impacts and Uncertainty in the Nile Basin Slide12:  ‘Cascade of uncertainty’ GHG Emissions GHG Concentrations Future global T change How sensitive is Earth’s climate to change in GHG concentrations? Detailed change Spatial  Temporal Inter-model differences Climate change impacts Lake Victoria outflows frequency distribution, 30-year periods:  Lake Victoria outflows frequency distribution, 30-year periods Allocation of water according to the Nile Waters agreement 1959:  Allocation of water according to the Nile Waters agreement 1959 Conclusions and discussion points:  Conclusions and discussion points For parts of Africa there exist useful instrumental analogues, particularly for rainfall Recent rainfall variability may lie outside GCM changes Analogues provide an insight to climate-environment-society linkages - highlight complexity Uncertainty about detail of future climate change underpins impacts and adaptation analysis Conclusions and discussion points cont’d:  Conclusions and discussion points cont’d Barriers against factoring climate change into development; Uncertainty Timescales…signal to noise What can we say about the future? Temperature... Rainfall... What is our best guide to the next 30 years? Current conditions + ……. Return to wet Sahel? ENSO changes, Indian Ocean changes

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