Published on August 17, 2009
Commentary: Hunger Reduction with Agricultural R&D and Policy Change Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute The Chicago Initiative on Global Agricultural Development - Report Release Symposium February 25, 2009
RECOMMENDATIONS: RENEWING ATTENTION TO AGRICULTURE IN U.S. DEVELOPMENT POLICY 1: Increase support for agricultural education and extension at all levels in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. 2: Increase support for agricultural research in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. 3: Increase support for rural and agricultural infrastructure, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. 4: Improve the national and international institutions that deliver agricultural development assistance. 5: Improve U.S. policies currently seen as harmful to agricultural development abroad. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009
Food prices: higher levels and the spike 800 Price spike Corn Wheat Rice 600 US$/ton 400 200 0 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: IFPRI, Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009.
Food protests and food prices 800 Maize 25 700 Wheat Rice 20 600 Riots (right) 500 # of riots 15 US$/ton 400 300 10 200 5 100 0 0 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-08 Jun-08 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Apr-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 May-08 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: J. von Braun based on data from FAO 2009 and news reports.
Further stress for agriculture and the poor: Financial crisis and depression • Less capital for agriculture now • Higher debt burden for farmers who invested in agriculture expansion • Reduced employment and wages of unskilled workers • Reduced remittances Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009
Actions for smallholder agriculture are central ! 1. Access to finance and inputs (rural banks and micro-finance, seeds, fertilizer, animal feed, veterinary drugs) 2. Investment in rural infrastructure (e.g. rural roads, electrification, irrigation) 3. Agricultural productivity (R&D, extension, education) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009
RECOMMENDATION 2: Increase support for agricultural research in Sub-Sahara Africa and South Asia a. Provide greater external support for agricultural scientists working in the national agricultural research systems. b. Provide greater support to agricultural research conducted at the international centers of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research c. Provide greater support for collaborative research between scientists from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and scientists at U.S. universities d. Create a competitive award fund to provide an incentive for high impact agricultural innovations to help poor farmers Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009
Central for long-term agric. growth: Double agric. R&D to impact poverty R&D allocation in # of + Agr. output (mil. 2005 $) poor (mil.) growth (% pts.) 2008* 2013 2008-2020 2008-2020 SSA 608 2,913 -143.8 2.8 S Asia 908 3,111 -124.6 2.4 Devel.ing World 4,975 9,951 -282.1 1.1 CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion as part of this expansion Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.
1b. CGIAR “Best Bets” Food, Environment, Policy for People Approach (mil $) mil ppl Revitalizing yield growth in intensive cereal systems of Asia 150 3,000 Ensuring productive & resilient small-scale fisheries 73.5 32 Controlling wheat rust 37.5 2,900 Developing vaccine for East Coast Fever in cattle 10.5 32 Developing drought-tolerant maize for Africa 100 320 Scaling up biofortification 125 672 Increasing CO2 sequestration & improving forest livelihoods 45 48 Conducting climate change & adaptation research 127.5 1,200 Combining organic & inorganic nutrients for crop productivity 55 400 Promoting sustainable groundwater use 24 261 Enhancing germplasm exchange 15 Global Improving market information & value chains 10.5 45 Including women in extension & innovation 30 200 Exploiting agriculture-health links to benefit the poor 75 Global Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009
16 mln more malnourished children with recession and low investment Non-recession 275 250 Maize price Same-investment (left ) 250 200 Low-investment 225 US$/ton 150 200 100 Malnourished children (right) 175 Million 50 150 0 125 2005 2010 2015 2020 Recession scenarios with and without agric. investment action Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: von Braun, Rosegrant, IFPRI IMPACT, Oct. 2008.
The global food business chain – involve all actors Consumers Agricultural Food input processors Food industry Farms and traders retailers top 10: $55 bln Agricultural top 10: $426 bln top 10: $1,042 value added: bln • Syngenta $1,674 bln • Nestle • Monsanto • Cargill • Wal-Mart $4,000 bln • Bayer C No. of farms: • Unilever • Carrefour • Dupont N ca. 450 mln • Tesco • ADM • Mosaic • Bunge • Metro G Size distr. • Kroger >100 ha: 0.5% < 2 ha: 85% Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: von Braun 2008, updated.
Major pledges and investments to address the food crisis (2008) Donor organization/country Pledge (bil.$) Month World Bank 1.2 May EU (EC & national) 5+ May-July USA 5 June Increase in public budgets on agric. and social protection bil. $US % change China 23 +27% India 6 +24% Donors’ investment components too small Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: IFPRI, compiled from news sources and government budgets.
What and how of US co-leadership – government , private, foundations, NGOs US leadership in agricultural development with partnership 1. China, India, Africa, LAC, EU as partners 2. UN “Global Partnership on Agriculture and Food Security” 3. Shape the G8 and G20 agendas on food security in 2009 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009
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for growth and poverty reduction; (3) identify policy ... agricultural R&D ... also on linkages with wider processes of change and coordination in ...
Climate change will increase hunger ... Agriculture contributes to climate change, ... production and for developing climate change adaptation policies.
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The relationships between basic and applied agricultural R&D, ... on the broader policy ... change in agriculture and poverty reduction.
Agricultural Innovation for ... Much has been learned about policies to reduce hunger and ... and beginning climate change; • Private sector R&D in ...
change edition: switch to ... that generate a greater impact on agricultural growth and poverty reduction. ... Zambia's Indaba Agricultural Policy ...
Disaster Risk Reduction; Climate Change; ... will prevent the worst impacts of climate change on hunger globally and help make ... Climate Policy.