Published on February 18, 2014
SAMI Consulting Robust decisions in uncertain times Welcome to the last Blowing The Cobwebs Off Your Mind with friends of Laurie Young The Royal Society 22nd January 2014 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1
The Cobwebs team Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2
Laurie Young Robust decisions in uncertain times Died suddenly and shockingly 18th September 2013 We are missing him, and hope that this event captures some of his voice and ideas. http://laurieyoungmemorial.wordpress.com/ www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3
Remembering Laurie Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • Laurie Young prize, Summit, Essay competition, 1% club, Funding vehicle for consultancies and business schools to conduct original research into Thought Leadership. • Richard Chaplin is the architect, has more details, and would be delighted to talk about it in the break ------
Where this came from Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • Laurie and Gill's book Interest in futures & investment “Cobwebs” meetings to develop the ideas The cards & advisory work Impetus to the Thought Leadership book from last years’ Royal Society event www.samiconsulting.co.uk 5
What we have covered Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • • Futures trends Dialogue about the forces Cognitive bias Three Horizons Scenarios VERGE In the future, we will all fly organic. The three horizons framework for layering change lifecycles www.samiconsulting.co.uk 6
Agenda for today Robust decisions in uncertain times • Thought leadership – Looking back, models of Thought Leadership • Three Horizons • Some Forces for Change – Choosing a few • Future models of Thought Leadership – Feedback • Just in case you are not convinced of the challenges ahead – Briefing on technology driven opportunities www.samiconsulting.co.uk 7
SAMI Consulting Robust decisions in uncertain times Thought Leadership Dr Chris Yapp www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8
Laurie’s Last Book Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 9
The Cynical View Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 10
Why Now? Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • Difficult economic times Shortening product lifecycles Commodification of services Short-termism Globalisation, BRICs, MINT… • Complexity of change www.samiconsulting.co.uk 11
The Challenge Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • Individuals and organisations What is Thought Leadership? Where does it come from? How is it done? Who does it well? • What is the value of Thought Leadership? www.samiconsulting.co.uk 12
My Discussions with Laurie Robust decisions in uncertain times • It’s often done badly in IT and professional services • It’s often scoped wrongly • Communicating internally and externally needs to be improved • Once ideas are out there… • It’s all about context www.samiconsulting.co.uk 13
The Value of Thought Leadership Robust decisions in uncertain times • To individuals – identity • To organisations – attracting & keeping talent • To stakeholders – story builds the relationship • To governments – ability to embrace the future www.samiconsulting.co.uk 14
Over to You---Robust decisions in uncertain times • At the table • Share some examples of Thought Leadership www.samiconsulting.co.uk 15
SAMI Consulting Robust decisions in uncertain times Three Horizons Dr Wendy Schultz www.samiconsulting.co.uk 16
The Three Horizons Framework Robust decisions in uncertain times Three Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cycles B Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry
Origins of the Three Horizons Robust decisions in uncertain times • Bill Sharpe, International Futures Forum: – – – – Technology roadmapping - inadequate UK Foresight: Intelligent Infrastructures Emerging practice Reflection Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope • Curry and Hodgson, cases and article • Growing community of practice www.samiconsulting.co.uk 18
Three Horizons Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 19
Horizon ONE MANAGERIAL Robust decisions in uncertain times • Today’s dominant pattern(s) – accumulations of past decisions & designs • H1 systems are fully integrated with surrounding culture – ‘locked in’ • Well-established ways of dealing with problems frame approaches to new challenges • Dominated by quantitative sense of time as a limited resource www.samiconsulting.co.uk 20
Horizon THREE VISIONARY Robust decisions in uncertain times • Imagined futures and emerging changes – transformative shifts from the present • Explores the ‘full range of possible social settlements and systems that could be brought into being’ • Surfaces and questions underlying cultural assumptions • Dominated by qualitative awareness of time as a defining moment of decision www.samiconsulting.co.uk 21
Horizon TWO ENTREPRENEURIAL Robust decisions in uncertain times • Looks both ways – past and future – to respond to limitations of H1 and opportunities of H3 • Creates a zone of innovation and turbulence • Danger: “H1 capture” – too mired in the past • Dominated by feelings of opportunity, engagement and a sense of opportunity cost – trade-offs that must be made www.samiconsulting.co.uk 22
Three Horizons: Mindsets Robust decisions in uncertain times MANAGER Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES, CDs, DVDs ENTREPRENEUR Eg., MUSIC, MOVIES – transformational disruptor - iTunes VISIONARY Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES – paradigm buster Napster
Three Horizons: Questions Robust decisions in uncertain times • What are the current working assumptions and systems of production and marketing? What are you taking for granted when you make management decisions (horizon 1)? • What changes are emerging as completely new paradigms and means to understand and undertake various human activities (horizon 3)? What are visionary leaders saying? • Which of the immediate changes you see represent a transition or accommodation for evolving tensions as current assumptions and work patterns obsolesce, and transformative changes erupt into possibility (horizon 2)? What opportunities do you see? What are entrepreneurs building?
Three Horizons Insights Robust decisions in uncertain times “Instead of seeing a world of stability to which change and uncertainty ‘happen,’ we instead become aware that everything that seems fixed and stable is just part of a slow process of change, embedded in other processes that extend out as far as we want to explore.” www.samiconsulting.co.uk 25
Horizon One Questions Robust decisions in uncertain times • Discuss Chris Yapp’s overview of thought leadership models: – What additional leadership models from the past would you add to the list? What are traditional approaches to innovation? – What current approaches to leadership and thought leadership do most people take for granted? – How do most businesspeople and managers assume innovation will happen? • Note each past & current model on a post-it, and add them onto the Horizon One space on your table map. www.samiconsulting.co.uk 26
Horizon Three Questions Robust decisions in uncertain times • Please review the 15 challenging changes we’ve provided as a card deck at your table. • Which of the changes significantly challenge traditional and current models of thought leadership, either for the good or ill? Place them on the Third Horizon. • Are there challenging changes or visions that you would add? Jot each addition down on a post it, and add those to the Third Horizon as well. • Look at your First Horizon thought leadership models. • Which are the most challenged by change? Star those. • Which changes challenge the most thought leadership models? Star those. www.samiconsulting.co.uk 27
SAMI Consulting Robust decisions in uncertain times Emerging models? Dr Chris Yapp www.samiconsulting.co.uk 28
Why Do We Need New Models? Robust decisions in uncertain times • Deep uncertainties • Influencing agendas • Demographics – skills – New disciplines: interdisciplinarity • West to East – Changing world order • Environment – Sustainability • Technology – Global networks www.samiconsulting.co.uk 29
Pro-Am Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 30
Wiki Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 31
Wisdom of Crowds Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 32
Big Data Robust decisions in uncertain times • Government Open Data • Large Corporate Data sets • Internet of Things • BUT how to use to generate insight? www.samiconsulting.co.uk 33
Open Innovation Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • Open vs Closed models Co-design, co-delivery Clusters, supply-chains and ecosystems “Open Source” www.samiconsulting.co.uk 34
Overcoming the hype Robust decisions in uncertain times • "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." • "Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius -- and a lot of courage -- to move in the opposite direction." www.samiconsulting.co.uk 35
Potential Models Robust decisions in uncertain times • Pro-Am: – co-operation with known rules • Wiki – experts edit the rules • Wisdom of Crowds – diversity on complex problems • Big data – so what? How to make sense? • Open Innovation – eco-system of experts www.samiconsulting.co.uk 36
Horizon Two Questions Robust decisions in uncertain times • Discuss Chris Yapp’s introduction of new thought leadership models: – Do these replace older models completely? – Do any of the new models address or overcome the challenges you’ve just identified as most significant? – Can you look at the emerging changes and imagine any additional, transformative, novel models of thought leadership? • Identify to report back: – The most significant, challenging change to thought leadership; – The most profound new model of thought leadership emerging; – The most surprising new need for thought leadership emerging. www.samiconsulting.co.uk 37
Your group’s summary Robust decisions in uncertain times • Before reporting: – Review the highlights of your discussion – What one change presents the greatest challenge? – What was the most profound new model for thought leadership that emerged? – What was the most surprising new need for thought leadership? • Report back: three bullet points only! www.samiconsulting.co.uk 38
In Closing Robust decisions in uncertain times • Laurie was Chairman of the Strategic Planning Society – He suggested the formation of Special Interest Groups, SIGs – We are planning to launch the Futures & Strategy SIG with a series of events – 30th April, 23rd July, 22nd October • We are also planning Futures Bootcamps at Wolfson College, Oxford – Details from Wendy Schultz • Watch for the announcements of the Laurie Young Memorial Prize, the summit, the 1% Club, ---• And perhaps we may all meet again next year at The Royal Society www.samiconsulting.co.uk 39
Thank You Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 40
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