Published on February 20, 2009
Clouds in Emerging Markets Naresh K. Sehgal, PhD, MBA Lead SW Architect Enterprise Platforms and Services Division Intel Corp, Bangalore
Context • Dark clouds are gathering on the horizon – World’s economies are slowing down • Signs of layoffs, delayed investments, recession… – Future seems uncertain • IDC server stats from Q3’08 – Server revenue down by 5.2 percent YOY at $12.6 billion – Server unit shipment growth up 2.8 percent YOY • Customers are demanding more computing/$ • Products and services we’ve going in will not get us out of • New Solutions are needed!! IT Managers want more Efficiency and Customers need a higher value to restart spending… 2
Profile of Intel Architecture (IA) Server Customers SMBs Enterprises Internet Portal Data-Centers • • • Buys 1-10X Servers 1- Buys 100-1000X 100- Buys 1000- 1000- • Lacks dedicated Servers 10,000X Servers on-site IT support on- • • Has dedicated on- on- Has dedicated on- on- • Wants low-cost low- site IT support site IT support solutions • • Needs Wants low-cost low- • Needs light- light- comprehensive solutions weight tools monitoring • Needs light Solutions weight tools SMBs and IPDC customers have similar needs Managed Service Providers (MSP) are like a virtual Data-center Data- Bringing SMBs to Cloud will spur a new investment cycle 3
SMBs Strength and Concerns • SMBs form the bottom of business IT use by Emerging market SMBs ‘07 pyramid – Focused on local end-users end- medium Business – Doctors, lawyers, accountants, restaurants 702K 100-999 employees and other SMBs with computing needs • 1-9 Employees Small Businesses (SB) form 2/3rd of the total Market 7.6M • India has 7.8M SMBs, spent $8B on IT Have PC, Server & Network access – Of which, 3.9M are Small Businesses, 4.4M spent $4.5B on IT and $4.2B on Telecom PC + Network Access • But a low rate of Cloud adoption – Lack of Vertical Applications • Domain specific SW in cloud 21.3M PC only – Trust Issues • Data security and portability – Lack of 24x7 internet connectivity Small Business • Bandwidth limitations, cost etc. 1-99 employees Emerging Market SMBs want on-site copy of Apps and Data on- 4 Source: AMI SMB Global Forecast Model, AMI Vertical Market Study
State of Cloud Computing • Evolving from end-user services (search, email, social networking) to support Mission end- Critical business and commercial grade applications – Some are based entirely out of clouds, e.g., Salesforce.com – Many companies want their own private enterprise clouds • Challenges include Mass deployment, Health monitoring and Power management etc. • Coming years will see new emerging trends – Different from the grid computing, software as a service (SaaS) or simple web hosting • Trend #1: Abstraction of network, storage, database, security and computing infrastructure – Offering image of on-demand, on- virtual data center with flexibility implied in scalability and agility; • Trend #2: A pricing model that is retail in its conception – – Pennies per gigabyte, massive CPU cycles and bandwidth; and • Trend #3: SLAs for – Data persistence, system reliability, redundancy, security and business continuity 5 S ource: http://w w w .b-eye-network.com/view/8702
Intel in Cloud Computing • 75% of TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) is for HW and power/cooling – Use energy efficient processors • Intel processors are ~30% more efficient than competition – Use HW virtualization technology for Elastic Computing • Intel’s HW Virtualization gives 2X boost more VMs / server • Optimize at platform, software and data-center levels data- – Focus on DC management and cloud services at the System level • DCMI spec for efficient server management – Node Manager for server and rack levels, 20-30% savings potential 20- • Dynamic adjustment of power states based on load • Need software for large-scale clouds large- – Establish an internet scale global test bed for Cloud research • A new Open Cirrus initiative with HP and Yahoo Intel Architecture offers ideal platforms for cloud computing 6
Emerging Market Innovations How to transport more people in a vehicle? Simply double them up… 7
Extending Cloud to SMBs An on-premise appliance for service delivery? on- Remote Apps Desktop Hosting, patching, File/Print Backup Search APPS PBX monitoring, Data backup etc. Local Notebook Networ Appliance k Internet Connection Printer IP Phones • Extension for cloud based services - Range of applications possible • Remote Serviced and Managed from the cloud • Trust and security managed with TPM CHALLENGES – WHERE DOES IT WORK/DOESN’T WORK? 8
On- On-Premise Appliance for Service Delivery Racks Racks Model Cloud Data Center Distributed On-Premise Appliance On- Workloads Scales for Large workloads Probably sufficient for small workloads Usage Models Easily supports highly mobile Only supports on-premise devices devices (Mobile devices require VPN) Bandwidth/ WAN bandwidth may not be WAN bandwidth may not be sufficient Application sufficient for certain client facing for certain customer facing applications performance applications (e.g. File Sharing) (e.g. Web site) Cooling Costs High Low Energy Costs Provider pays Customer pays CAPEX Pay for facility but high utilization Low utilization but no facility costs OPEX costs Lower Low with remote management 9
Inside a Cloud Dynamic provisioning over physical layers for economy of scale 10
Going Beyond: to hand-held clients hand- • Large cell-phone owning population is ready for rich experience – Same internet services that you can get on a connected laptop – Using MIDs (Mobile Internet Devices) based on Intel® Atom™ processors • Take advantage of IA presence on Clients and Servers – Optimize Storage, Compute & visualization scheduling based on Energy, Security, and Performance – Take advantage of SaaS technologies – Software runs where it runs best depending on device caps – Data moves transparently between the MID and the Cloud • Deliver a superior user experience when connected – Connected visual computing is one example Deliver a greater business value to the End-users End- 11
Summary: Intel Cloud Strategy Deliver the energy efficiency 1 and virtualization technology demanded by all clouds Optimize technology for large- 2 scale clouds: datacenter, software & platforms Enable MID devices for Cloud 3 access on the move Intel is driving efficiency, performance, and new capabilities throughout the stack 12
More breakthroughs Required 1. Network Latency – High bandwidth vs. High Latency 2. Software Design – Application Partitioning – Energy/Security -aware managed run-time Energy/Security- run- 3. Fine- Fine -grained Migration & Provisioning – Energy -aware code migration Energy- – Virtualization of accelerators and TPMs – Remote visualization 4. Security – Projection of Trust & confidentiality from the user-device into the Cloud user- 5. OS design; Scheduling computation and I/O – Failure handling and error-recovery error- – Application sandboxing via lightweight VMs 6. Availability – Offline vs. On-line sync On- – Resilience to Power Outage 7. Standards and Open-source solutions for Cloud SW infrastructure support Open- Need Eco-systems players to join hands Eco- 14
Economic Times: 7.6M SMBs in India, set to increase their IT spending by 24%. Spent $8B in 2007 to beef up their servers and networking technology back 15
SMB Segmentation • 3.89 mil small Small PC 1.21M $4.45B Business businesses businesses of which (Total IT Spending 30% have adopted in 2006) computers • 1-9 employees make up No 2.68M • 14% CAGR businesses 2/3 of total market PC • Mostly in the infrastructure buildup phase • Mobility is a significant characteristic with 2/5 having mobile workers Source: AMI India SB 2007 back 16
SB Overview • There are an estimated 3.89 Breakout of Total SB Market million SBs in India that spend $8.67 billion on IT and telecom. 0.40 0.38 AMTUC 0.35 • IT accounts for slightly above 50% Mfg. 0.30 0.28 or $4.45 billion while telecom Wholesale In Millions 0.25 accounts for $4.22 billion 0.18 Retail 0.20 0.15 0.15 FIRE 0.09 • Key Verticals: 0.09 0.10 Prof Bus Svcs 0.04 •Retail 0.05 Other Svcs. •Manufacturing 0.00 # of PC Biz •Professional Business Services Total IT / Telecom Spending ($ millions) Prof. Bus. Other AMTUC Mfg Wholesale Retail FIRE Svcs Svcs $543 M $2,538 M $310 M $1,917 M $684 M $1,442 M $1,240 M 6.5% 30.3% 3.7% 22.9% 8.2% 17.2% 14.8% Source: AMI India SB 2007 back 17
SB Attitudes – Key Business Issues Key Issues Hindering Growth Insufficient Cash flow 17% Difficulty in raising financing for growth 16% Rising operating costs 12% Difficulty in accessing business opportunities 11% Uncertain industry conditions 8% Pressure in keeping up with new technology 7% Increasing competition 6% Hiring, developing and retaining staff 6% Difficulty in accessing market intelligence or information 6% Uncertain economic environment 6% Changing policies and regulatory requirements 2% Product related issues 2% Others 0.1% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% % of PC Biz Source: AMI India SB 2007 18
SB Attitudes – IT Priorities Strategic Importance of Issues (next 12 months) Deploying high-spee d broa dband Inte rnet access 68% Significant Buyi ng additional hardware 45% Most Ne tworking all ha rdware in main office location 44% Upgrade a nd standa rdize opera ting systems 43% Re pla cing ol d hardware with newer ones 43% Trai n a nd educa te e mploye es on IT skill s and knowledge 40% Importance Moderate Enha nce e nterprise I T se curity 32% Outsource busine ss proce sse s incl uding IT service & support 30% De pl oying wire less technologie s and solutions 25% Re duce communication costs by a dopting VoI P 24% Embrace e -Comme rce 24% Exte nding the ne twork conne cti vi ty to bra nch office s & othe r 20% remote l ocati ons Significant I ncrea se IT storage capacity a nd de ploy enha nced stora ge 9% Least solutions Adopt hosted/ on-demand solutions to reduce upfront software 9% ex pendi ture s Deploy ope n-source opera ting systems like Linux 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% % of PC SBs Source: AMI India SB 2007 19
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Clouds in emerging markets-naresh sehgal, Intel, delivered at Cloud Computing Symposium, as part of ACM Compute 2009