Published on April 25, 2014
Closing livestock yield gaps in the developing world: Imperatives for people and the planet Global Food Security Consortium Spring Symposium: Closing the Yield Gap 29–30 April 2014 Ames, Iowa Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI
Key messages 1 Unprecedented demand for food, especially animal-source food, in developing countries will continue to rise 2 No standardized method exists for assessing livestock yield gaps, but however defined, the gaps are significant 3 Our failed attempts to bridge the livestock yield gaps in developing countries ignored smallholder realities 4 Most milk, meat and eggs in developing countries come from smallholders and are produced and consumed in the same country 5 Big transitions in the world’s smallholder livestock systems present big opportunities to address both technical and institutional issues, benefiting both people and planet
1 Unprecedented demand for food, especially animal-source food, in developing countries will continue to rise
By 2050 we will need huge amounts of cereals, dairy and meat 1bn tonnes more cereals to 2050 1bn tonnes dairy each year 460m tonnes meat each year
4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock FAO 2013
% change in global demand for livestock products: 2000–2030 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 milk beef mutton pork poultry meat eggs FAO 2011 %
Change in global and regional demand for food: Livestock and other commodities -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 developed developing SSA SA %change2005/07to2050 cereals root/tuber meat dairy Modified from Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012
Gains in meat consumption in developing countries are outpacing those of developed 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 Millionmetrictonnes developing developed FAO 2006
Consumption of livestock products to 2050 • Globally: An overall increase in per capita daily consumption of livestock products of 37% compared to 2000 • Commodities differ: – A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption – A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption • Regions differ: – In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC – In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC Herrero et al. 2014
2 No standardized method exists for assessing livestock yield gaps, but however defined, the gaps are significant
The ‘gaps’ in livestock yield gap assessments • Unlike the crop sector, no single, standardized approach exists for assessing livestock yield gaps • Everyone asks the same questions, e.g.: – Where are the greatest yield gaps: which regions, systems, commodities? – What technical interventions are most likely to help close these gaps? • But everyone compares different things, e.g.: – What to compare: Amount of product? Asset value? Monetary value? – And at what scale: Between developed and developing countries? Developing countries only? Within countries or systems?
Approaches to assessing livestock yield gaps differ • BMGF Compares yield potentials between developing and developed regions and converts these to monetary values • ILRI Compares production from different livestock genotypes and production systems • WUR Uses production ecological concepts like systems used to assess crop yield gaps
Using monetary values to asses gaps • Comparing livestock yields in developing countries with best-in-class in USA/W Europe gives a gap of $300 billion • Comparing livestock yields in developing countries with similar environments in Australia/South America gives a gap of $120 billion • Comparing the value of interventions indicates that animal genetics, followed by health, provide the most significant potential gains for SS Africa and South Asia BMGF
Using production from different genotypes and production systems to assess gaps 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Good health/reprod. Good health/poor reprod. Poor health/good reprod. Poor health/poor reprod. Annualizedmilkoff-take(litres) poor nutrition improved nutrition D = interactiveD A A A A B = reproduction only C = health only B C Effects of different management strategies on the increase in value of annualized milk off-take
Using productivity data combined with modelling to assess gaps 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 %increaseduetointervention Gains from dairy technology interventions: Value of change in milk yields only
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 %increaseduetointervention Using productivity data combined with modelling to assess gaps Gains from dairy technology interventions: Value of change in milk yields and herd growth
Using technical, market and institutional interventions to assess gaps 0 10 20 30 40 50 S.Asia dairy E.Africa dairy W.Africa beef W.Africa s.ruminants S'n Africa small ruminants %potentialgainfrom interventions Genetics Health Feed 0 10 20 30 40 50 %potentialgainfrom interventions Mkt access Input delivery
Using production ecological concepts to assess gaps Van Ittersum and Rabbinge 1997, Van de Ven et al. 2003 With thanks to Simon Oosting and Aart van der Linden of the Animal and Plant Production Systems groups of Wageningen University
Regardless of the approach used, livestock yield gaps are significant • Significant gaps exist • Opportunities to address livestock yield gaps: – Technology: Health, genetics, feed – Non-technical: Market access, input delivery • Need to target – By commodity – By system
0 50 100 150 200 Meatmillionmetric tonnesperyear 2005/07 2050 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Milkmillionmetric tonnesperyear 2005/07 2050 Greatest in Africa and South Asia Differences in consumption: Global meat and milk gaps to close World Bank, FAO, ILRI, AU-IBAR 2014
3 Our failed attempts to bridge the livestock yield gaps in developing countries ignored smallholder realities
Why past attempts to close livestock yield gaps failed We failed to take sufficient account of the realities of the users − the world’s small-scale livestock producers: • Environment • Climate • Feeds available • Endemic diseases • Local market context • State of infrastructure • Institutions
Exotic genotypes were introduced into harsh production environments 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Harsh Poor Good Milkyield(l) Production environment Indigenous X-bred Exotic
Animals are the products of their genes, their environments and their gene-environment interactions P = G + E + GE P is the phenotype The animal we see, its production etc. G is the genotype The genetic make up of the animal E is the environment All factors (ambient conditions, health, nutrition, husbandry) except the genes of the animal GE is the interaction Between the genes and the environment
Animals are also influenced by markets, institutions and policies P = G + E + GE P is the phenotype The animal we see, its production etc. G is the genotype The genetic make up of the animal E is the environment All factors (ambient conditions, health, nutrition, husbandry) except the genes of the animal GE is the interaction Between the genes and the environment
Policies Animals are also influenced by markets, institutions and policies P = G + E + GE P is the phenotype The animal we see, its production etc. G is the genotype The genetic make up of the animal E is the environment All factors (ambient conditions, health, nutrition, husbandry) except the genes of the animal GE is the interaction Between the genes and the environment
4 Most milk, meat and eggs in developing countries come from smallholders and are produced and consumed in the same country
Monogastric production systems are already in rapid transition to industrial 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 smallholder industrial Europe Latin America Africa/Middle East Herrero et al. 2014 Over 30% of African monogastric production will still be smallholder in 2050
Most food of the world is produced on small mixed crop-and-livestock farms Developing-country mixed crop-livestock systems, most of them smallholders, supply the large proportion of livestock products
These mixed farming systems produce much of our meat and milk • Mixed systems are an important source of ruminant meat in 2000 and 2050 – Europe: 42% mixed temperate – Latin America: 48% mixed humid – Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid • Mixed systems are an equally important source of milk – Over 50% of milk comes from crop- livestock farms, regardless of the region – The big increases in milk production to 2050 will continue to be in mixed systems, esp. in Africa and Middle East
Small-scale mixed crop-livestock farmers are (surprisingly) competitive East African dairy • 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd • Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers • Small- and large-scale Kenyan dairy producers have same levels of efficiency and profits Vietnam pig industry • 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 animals • Pig producers with 1−2 sows have lower unit costs than those with more than 4 sows • Industrial pig production could grow to meet no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years • Smallholders will continue to provide most of the pork IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012
5 Big transitions in the world’s smallholder livestock systems present big opportunities to address both technical and institutional issues to benefit both people and the planet
We can, and should, respond holistically to the rising demand for livestock foods Increase production to benefit poor people and the planet • People: Equity – more product for the market = more income – more benefits for women, who make up 2/3 of the 1 billion poor reliant on livestock • People: Health and nutrition – more available and affordable animal-source foods – more balanced diets – risk-based food safety policies • Planet: Environment – greater efficiency – fewer animals – smaller footprint – reduced GHGs
Trajectories of growth for the livestock sector Strong growth Intensifying and increasingly market oriented often transforming smallholder systems Fragile growth Where remoteness, marginal land resources or agro climatic vulnerability restrict intensification High growth with externalities Intensified livestock systems with diverse challenges including the environment and human health
Trajectory ‘Strong growth’ Sector Ruminant meat and milk, esp. in SSA, India − Pork in some regions Issues − Sustainable productivity - Market access and food safety − Zoonotic outbreaks Opportunities Novel approaches spanning sustainable productivity, markets, institutional and policy issues, risk analyses ‘Fragile growth’ Some smallholder and pastoral systems; little part in the production response − Multiple endemic diseases − Zoonoses − Source of disease − Movement controls Mostly public sector interventions, mitigating vulnerability, improving resilience ‘High growth with externalities’ Mostly monogastric − China for all sectors − Environmental - Drug resistance − Climate impacts on new vector and pathogen dynamics − Disease scares Modalities of operation with private sector largely established. Managing environment and health risks and consumer demand Distinguishing opportunities
Strong growth in developing-country livestock sectors are opportunities • Of the world’s almost 1 billion smallholder livestock producers, it’s expected that: ﹣ One-third will find alternate livelihoods ﹣ One-third may or may not remain part of the transformation of the livestock sector ﹣ One-third will succeed at market-oriented livestock livelihoods • The on-going transitions in smallholder livestock systems that will take place in coming decades present opportunities to close yield gaps not only of commodity levels but also of environment, equity and health benefits
Policies Animal health ★Vaccines ★Diagnostics ★Delivery systems Markets & institutions ★New business arrangements ★Good access to markets Health & nutrition ★Risk- not rule-based regulations ★Controlled zoonoses ★Balanced diets Environment ★High feed efficiency ★Wide use of crop residues Feed ★Viable feed markets ★Improved feeds/feed strategies ★Judicious biomass use Genetics ★Improved local breeds ★Breeds well-matched to environments
Annual losses from selected diseases ANIMAL HEALTH BMGF 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Billion$lostyearly South Asia Africa Africa South Asia
The cost • Emerging animal disease outbreaks in the last decade: $200bn • Zoonoses (1998–2009): $6.7bn/yr More indicators • Global animal health = multi-billion-dollar industry • Global human health market = $1,000 billion • Global animal health market (livestock + pet + other) = $20 billion • Global livestock health market = $13 billion • Africa and South Asia = $0.5 billion • Market shares = drugs 63%, vaccines 25%, feeds 15% • Africa = +15.7% year-on-year growth, India 8 % Significant costs in developing countries ANIMAL HEALTH
Research-based livestock successes ANIMAL HEALTH • Research solutions for animal diseases: ﹣ Vaccines (East Coast fever) ﹣ Diagnostics • In Uganda, where pork consumption is skyrocketing, and Vietnam, where pork is the preferred meat, projects are enhancing the smallholder pig value chain and helping these countries ensure the safety of their pork products.
Vaccines save lives of animals that increase food security and reduce poverty ILVAC – a global vaccine initiative ANIMAL HEALTH Antibody technologies Vaccine technologies Cellular technologies Diagnostic technologies Genomic technologies EastCoastFever Consortia for research & product development and capacity development Pestedespetitsruminants Riftvalleyfever ILVAC – a vaccine platform Contagiousbovine pleuropneumonia Africanswinefever Infectious disease Research: basic & applied Improved vaccines and diagnostic tools Private sector GALVmed CRPs NARS Inter-gov agencies
Opportunities FEEDS • Produce more and better quality – Crop varieties with improved residue quality/quantity – Forages • Better use available feed – Via processing (chopping) – Feed mixtures (rations) • Import feed into the system – From areas of surplus to deficit – Concentrates • Potential environmental ‘win-win’
Research-based livestock successes FEEDS • 70% of production cost – FEED • 70% of feed – CROP RESIDUES • Potential huge demand for grain for MONOGASTRICS • Opportunities: – Improved crop residue quantity and quality – Improved use of crop residues with other feed resources – Balancing trade offs in biomass use – Use of sorghum and other alternates to maize for monogastrics
Matching genotype and environment BREEDS Tools based on newly discovered bacterial molecular defence systems that use proteins to destroy pathogen DNA by slicing it up open new biological and medical frontiers, allowing quick, efficient and precise gene editing in any cell or species. These tools allow targeted, single-base changes to a genome. With them, we can greatly improve traits of interest using existing within-species variation for rapid, high-precision cross-breeding.
Matching genotype and environment BREEDS These molecular systems will help us produce animals highly suited to a variety of environmental challenges, such as disease, drought, poor feed: In the past, making an animal with multiple genetic changes usually required creating separate animals with single changes and then crossbreeding them to produce offspring with multiple changes. The new tools allow multiple genetic changes to be made in one step, by putting multiple guide RNAs into the cell. ‘It just completely changes the landscape.’. . . The pace of new discoveries and applications is dizzying. ‘All of this has basically happened in a year…’ − A powerful new way to edit DNA, New York Times, 3 Mar 2014
Research-based livestock successes BREEDS • Rather than importing exotic breeds to address livestock yield gaps in developing countries, which often is ﹣ costly and ﹣ complex • Opportunities exist to better use indigenous genetic resources: ﹣ By combining traits in cross-bred animals ﹣ By better matching genotypes with environments • Examples include red Maasai sheep and cross-bred dairy cows in E Africa
Food safety for food MARKETS • 90% of animal products are produced and consumed in the same region • Over 70% of livestock products are sold ‘informally’ • There are major opportunities to ensure that milk, meat and eggs are safe for consumption (e.g. via risk assessments and risk- rather than rule-based regulations) • ‘Intensifying’ livestock production systems bring people and animals closer together, increasing the threat of zoonotic disease outbreaks and spread
• Research evidence for smallholder dairying included: ﹣ Risk analysis of informal milk marketing ﹣ Employment and income benefits for the poor • Business/market development links poor livestock producers and feed suppliers to more sophisticated input/output systems ﹣ A dairy ‘hub’ approach has been widely adopted Research-based livestock successes MARKETS
Conclusions • The big increases in demand for, consumption and production of livestock commodities are all happening in developing countries • In developing countries, livestock commodities come mainly from smallholders, a trend expected to continue for decades • Addressing livestock yield gaps holistically − and attending to the realities of resource- scarce production − has potential to: – Support the world’s smallholders in achieving global food and nutritional security – Reduce world poverty and increase equity – Cut the environmental footprint of animal-source foods
Key messages 1 Unprecedented demand for food, esp. animal-source food, in developing countries will continue to rise 2 No standardized method exists for assessing livestock yield gaps, but however defined, the gaps are significant 3 Our failed attempts to bridge the livestock yield gaps in developing countries ignored smallholder realities 4 Most milk, meat and eggs in developing countries come from smallholders and are produced and consumed in the same country 5 Big transitions in the world’s smallholder livestock systems present big opportunities to address both technical and institutional issues, benefiting both people and planet
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