Published on February 4, 2009
A Climate for Life Presentation at the California Academy of Sciences by Michael Totten Conservation International firstname.lastname@example.org February 3, 2009 www.aclimateforlife.org/
4 TRENDS – Inextricably Interwoven EXTINCTION SPASM CLIMATE CATASTROPHE FOOD & WATER SHORTAGES MASS POVERTY
Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere every 44 hours 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines
$2.5 trillion almost a quarter of the US economy is at risk from the large forest wildfires have tripled and area burned increased >5-fold since weather the 1980s, burning 5x longer, and wildfire season has lengthened 2/3rd.
Unintended Consequences – Geo-engineering A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of hundreds of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading … a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of quot;catastrophe insurancequot; needed: quot;rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction …A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$300 billion] of national income on the cost of a clean environment.quot; MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint 2008 now 45GtCO2 2050 reduce to <10 GtCO2 2100 reduce to <4 GtCO2 Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights- based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000
yr yr / / 2% 3% x 7x 19
The Virtuous Cycle of Green Innovation Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/
Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions oil gas coal forests geothermal agriculture Assumes: 1% 2% 1% 5% biomass1% 5% 10% 1) Global economic bldgs EE growth 2-3% 15% per year all wind century long; 15% 2) sustaining 3% per year efficiency gains; transport EE 15% 3) Combined solar carbon cap & 15% carbon tax industry EE 15%
“Leasing” CO2 Mitigation Services Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year 5 billion tons CO2 per year in Billion tons CO2 mitigation services available in 25 poor nations, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars 20 annually ; and saving well-off nations billions of dollars. 15 10 US GHG 5 levels 0 Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use 13 million hectares burned each year IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
6th largest extinction – 1000 times the natural background rate
Direct yields from tropical lands converted to farming, including proceeds from the sale of timber are: equivalent to less than $1 per ton of CO2 in many areas currently losing forest, and usually well below $5 per ton. Sir Nicholas Stern Avoided Deforestation offers one of the most cost-effective, immediately available, large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation options. Unchecked, deforestation could increase atmospheric concentrations of CO2 by as much as 130 ppm this century. For example: it will require $40 billion to capture and store 1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants. The same amount of money would prevent the release of 8 times this amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.
U.S. Fossil- fueled Geological storage (CCS) vs Electricity Carbon Offset Ecological storage (REDD) cost nationally annually Carbon Mitigation Cost (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007) $ per ton CO2 Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) $50 $45 ~$100 billion $40 ~3 ¢ per kWh $35 $30 $25 Reduced Emissions Deforestation & Degradation $20 (REDD) $15 $10 ~$18 billion $5 ~0.5 ¢ per kWh $- CCS REDD Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008
Madagascar Makira Reserve - Protecting & restoring wilderness, while helping people, species & climate
Ecuador collaborative offset projects Preserve habitat for threatened Andean Spectacled Bear, Howler Monkey, and Northern Naked Tailed Armadillo
FCCB Forest Restoration for Climate, Community and Biodiversity
DOZEN CRITERIA Desirable attributes of a Smart Energy system 1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped? 2. Safe through the entire life cycle? 3. Clean through the entire lifespan? 4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility? 5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error? 6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity? 7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality? 8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises? 9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time? 10. Endogenous learning capacity intrinsic new productivity opportunities? 11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative externalities and amplifying positive externalities scalable innovation possibilities? 12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption off the radar of terrorists, military planners?
Uninteresting military target A Defensible Smart Energy Robust experience curves Criteria Scoring Endogenous learning capacity Rebounds easily from failures Fails gracefully, not catastro Promote Environmentally benign CHP + Ecologically sustainable biowastes Resilient & flexible Secure Clean Safe Economically Affordable Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale CCS
KEY POLICY – UTILITY DECOUPLING Align utility and customer financial interests to capture the vast pool of end-use efficiency, onsite and distributed energy and water service opportunities. Dr. Art Rosenfeld Amory Lovins Ralph Cavanagh
USA Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75 ExaJoules of Energy Supply $700 billion per year in energy bill savings Envision 18 million coal railcars that would wrap around the world seven times each year. Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil supertanker shipments per year. Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.
CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs) BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years – 113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum. SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800 TW-yrs). Save >$50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions. Envision eliminating the need this century for: OR 10,000 giant OR 6,700 large OR 17 million 13.8 billion offshore oil nuclear LNG tanker coal railroad platforms. reactors. shipments. cars.
In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares. Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% of total US electricity from brownfields 90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2 million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities. Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solar Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Material Economic Beijing Shanghai Replaced Measure NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237 Polished BCR 2.33 2.14 Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1 NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024 BCR 1.89 1.70 Aluminum PBP (yrs) 2 2 SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in Switzerland Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
Economics of Commercial BIPV Reference costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials. Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
Commercial New Construction Green Building Feebate Proposed policy for adoption by Portland, OR, Jan. 2009
Vehicle-to-Grid Connecting the 1 TW Grid with the nearly 3 TW Vehicle fleet Convergences & Emergences
Vehicle-to-Grid PHEVs Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage and bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating reserves or storage for wind. Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity ENERGY POTENTIAL U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or 73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day). OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL ~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle) 27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal generation). Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Solar-battery Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-battery turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanol Wind & Solar experts Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
Food, Fuel, Species Tradeoffs? By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture. Combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed for medium growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact ecosystems and biodiversity- rich habitats.
Global Web Mesh
Gathering Data & Harvesting Collective Intelligence
Global Wired Mesh Resources http://www.shirky.com/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ www.wikinomics.com/ The_Wealth_of_Networks And incredible video at: And incredible video at: http://web2expo.blip.tv/file/ www.youtube.com/watc 855937/ h?v=NgYE75gkzkM
5000 days ago Pre-Web Pre-Commercial Internet
“the mostly read only Web” “the wildly read write Web” collective intelligence published content published user user content generated generated content content 45 million global users 1 billion+ global users
The WIKIPEDIA MODEL: In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees, Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica, Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 80,000 volunteer editors and content authors, Translating content into 150+ languages, and Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.
Clay Shirkey’s Cognitive Surplus Large-scale distributed work-force projects are impractical in theory, but doable in reality. http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/ 100 million hours to create Wikipedia – same as hours Americans watch TV ads each weekend. The Internet-connected population worldwide watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year. www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/lo oking-for-the-mouse.html One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of peer participation.
Web3.0+ Semantically-linked RW web Collective 1 trillion sites intelligence Smart Grid published User generated content content 3 billion global users 2010-2012
5000 days ago Pre-Web 5000 days from now Global Cloud Network Pre-Commercial Internet
Harnessing Collective Intelligence to: Prevent Climate Catastrophe Avert Mass Species Extinction Promote Green Prosperity & Well-being
LEED Certified Green Buildings GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment
Waste as Nutrient – Information Bitstream
Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West
Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West
Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.
95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains Figures of Merit Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2 Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 2MW wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2 Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2 Still available for farming and prairie restoration 90%+ (34,000 mi2) CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40%
Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems How? The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income US Farm Revenues per hectare Crop revenue Govt. subsidy Wind profits non-wind farm windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm $0 $60 govt. subsidy $200 $0 windpower royalty $50 $64 farm commodity revenues Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
Potential Synergisms Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains: 1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market); 2) Re-introducing free- ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co- evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high- value organic, free-range beef. Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered Droughts
Thank you !
Current Public R&D Priorities Do Not Represent Customer-focused, Retail-driven Solutions Retail-driven Scenario Status Quo USA Energy expenditures 1975-2000 2007-2030 • Lower energy costs • Lower price DOE $8 trillion Environmental/ volatility budget losses price $325 health volatlity • Lower externalities billion $10+ trillion 2/3 Environmental Dept of efficiency & Health Energy $25 trillion solar, wind externalities energy costs biofuels Military/ • Lower military Security 4% for all & security externalities $10+ trillion efficiency & 5% externalities all renewables Outcomes Priorities Outcomes Priorities Oil industry High energy costs Consumers • Shift of capital from utility Utility industry Volatile Prices Retailers sector to retail sector Coal industry Security vulnerability Suppliers • Greening supply chain out Natural gas industry Higher pollution levels Manufacturers of avoided utility costs Nuclear industry Long-term environmental Natural resource • Tax-free reductions in air & Large Hydro industry damage sector water pollution
A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered
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