Climate basics

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Information about Climate basics
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Published on March 6, 2014

Author: LibbyMurphy1

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Introduction to climate science basics and climate projections for New York State as presented to Marist summer institute class in July, 2013.

Climate Basics Marist College Summer Institute Libby Murphy Hudson River Estuary Program/Cornell WRI NYS Department of Environmental Conservation

Outline • The Hudson River Estuary Program • My background • Basics of climate science • Climate change in New York • Climate mitigation • Climate adaptation • Field trip!

Hudson River Estuary Program Core Mission • Ensure clean water • Protect and restore fish, wildlife, and their habitats • Provide water recreation and river access • Adapt to climate change • Conserve world-famous scenery

How I got here • Hudson Valley native • M.S. Climate Science and Policy, Bard College (2014) • M.B.A. in Sustainability, Bard College (2014) • B.A., Geology, Vassar College (2008) • Compton Mentor Fellow • Theodore Gordon Flyfisher Scholar • Adolph Sutro Fellow • Work in climate outreach, renewable energy start ups

Basics of climate science

What is climate? “You dress for the weather and build a house for the climate” “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get”

The Earth’s Climate System • Made up of 5 “spheres”

How do we know? • Greenland ice cores, detailed 800K year record of CO2 • Instrumental record since 1850

Carbon Cycle Basics

Difference between a planet with and one without a carbon cycle NASA

The long- and short-term carbon cycles Rock reservoir 50 x 106 Gt* Limestone Organic carbon in sedimentary rocks long-term 40 x 106 10 x 106 Fossil fuels 4.7 x 103 (coal = 4.0 x 103) Marine carbonate sediments World ocean 2.5 x 103 40 x 103 Dissolved inorganic carbon 39 x 103 Dissolved organic carbon 0.66 x 103 Organic carbon in soils and terrestrial sediments short-term Sizes of the carbon reservoirs 1.6 x 103 Organic carbon in permafrost 0.9 x 103 Atmospheric CO2 0.73 x 103 Living biomass 0.66 x 103 *Gt = gigatons = 109 metric tons Sources: Kump et al., 2004; Zimov et al., 2006; others

Short-term carbon cycle ocean 40,000 Gt C 97 Gt C/yr atmosphere 730 Gt C 101 Gt C/yr 118 Gt C/yr 121 Gt C/yr living things 660 Gt C permafrost 900 Gt C soils/sediments 1600 Gt C The surface reservoirs

Enter industrial revolution

one-way flow from long- to short-term reservoirs 8.0 Gt C/yr ocean 40,000 Gt C 97 Gt C/yr atmosphere 730 Gt C 101 Gt C/yr 118 Gt C/yr 121 Gt C/yr living things 660 Gt C permafrost 900 Gt C soils/sediments 1600 Gt C The surface reservoirs fossil fuels 4700 Gt C sedimentary rocks 50 million Gt C Long-term cycle deep reservoirs

Keeling’s Curve Mauna Loa record The Keeling curve

The Greenhouse Effect

A time of rapid Climate Change?

We choose our future

For more info

Climate change in New York

Changes to our climate Increasing temperatures • Rising sea level • Changing precipitation patterns

Increasing temperatures Since 1970: •Global annual average temp. up nearly 1°F •US annual average temp. up 1.8°F •New York annual average temp. up nearly 2°F •New York winter temperatures up almost 5°F

Year 2010 2005 46 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 1945 1940 1935 1930 1925 1920 1915 1910 1905 1900 1895 Annual Mean Temperature (F) 55 Annual mean temperature in Poughkeepsie has been increasing 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 y = 0.026x - 1.346 R² = 0.374 45

Increasing temperatures Future around Marist:

Sea level rise Historic: • 15” in NY Harbor in the past 150 years

Changing precipitation patterns • 74% Increase in heavy downpours between 1950-1979 and 1980-2009 • More variability and volatility

Year 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 1945 1940 1935 1930 1925 1920 1915 1910 1905 1900 1895 Annual Precipitation (inches) Annual rainfall in Poughkeepsie has become more variable 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20

So how will this affect us? Heat waves Short-term drought Flooding

Heat waves

Short-term drought • Higher temperatures, increased evaporation • Reduction in steady rain and snow precipitation

Flooding • Intense precipitation • Sea-level rise • Intense storms

What is the “100-year” flood? • FEMA, FIRMs • 1% probability = 100 yr • 10% = 10 year • Over 30 years there is a 30% chance of a 100-yr flood

Sea Level Rise Mapper by Scenic Hudson http://www.scenichudson.org/slr/mapper

Climate mitigation

What is climate mitigation? • Mitigation = reduce the severity of an issue/problem • Climate mitigation = reduce the severity of climate change • Reducing the causes of climate change • Some definitions: efficient, renewable, low-impact, carbonneutral, green buildings

How? • Energy/heat, transportation, buildings • Renewable energy, efficient transportation, green buildings

Climate adaptation

What is climate adaptation? • Adaptation= to adapt to new conditions • Climate adaptation= to adapt to the impacts of climate change • Reducing the impacts of climate change • Some definitions: resilience, accommodate, fortify, retreat

Resilience

Flooding adaptation

Current situation

Flooding Adaptation Strategies •Fortify •Accommodate •Strategically Relocate

Fortify Levee, New Orleans, LA Seawall, Beacon, NY

Accommodate Floodable park concept, NYC Elevated structures with flood gates, Hamburg, Germany

Local example of accommodation Steelhouse restaurant, Kingston, NY

Strategic Relocation Wetland with walkway concept, Toronto, Canada Natural shoreline with gazebo, Cold Spring

Simulations

E Strand in Kingston Kingston waterfront low tide

4’ of Sea Level Rise Kingston waterfront Simulation: elevated sea level (4’) at low tide

Example of Fortify Kingston waterfront Simulation: elevated sea level (low tide), armored protection

Example of Accommodate Kingston waterfront Simulation: elevated sea level (low tide), vegetated revetment, floodproofed buildings

Example of Strategic Relocation Kingston waterfront Simulation: elevated sea level (low tide), strategic retreat

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