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Published on April 10, 2008

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Proactive Structural Strategic Fund Risk Management China oil, gas ,housing industry market fundamental mechanism, risks Early Warning Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) 中國石油天然氣上下游基金投資風險管理策略 :  Proactive Structural Strategic Fund Risk Management China oil, gas ,housing industry market fundamental mechanism, risks Early Warning Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) 中國石油天然氣上下游基金投資風險管理策略 Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on China Macro-economic Control, Oil, Gas, Housing demand, prices Mechanism and Investment Risks Simulation/Forecasts Warren Huang ( 黃華南博士) ,Ph D,Founder/CEO OSA Global Strategic Management wh3928@yahoo.com/ osawhh@sina.com Revision for China Fund World , Pudong Conference, March 5,2008 Lecture Summary Proactive Structural Risks Mechanism Operations Simulation Analysis :  Lecture Summary Proactive Structural Risks Mechanism Operations Simulation Analysis OSA Methodology: Two master hands controlling last 20 years Global energy,housing,asset price bubble burst Mechanism, Allocation Fund Risks early warning 1. China Country Risks : Macro economic control, housing bubble burst, mortgage crisis policy impact on inflation, recession, interest rates analysis 2. Currency Risks: Interest rate, trade surplus impact on RMB, global currency market forces mechanism, currency crisis forecasts 3. Credit Risks: Oil, gas, China/Foreign players cash flow, profits, housing price bubble burst impact on credit rating and loan defaults risk 4. Operational Risks: All phases of oil, gas, power, banking, finance, daily trading, profit performance risks reporting, monitoring, simulation. 5. Market Risks: Proactive VaR pricing for housing ,banking, finance oil, gas, demand, performance, stock, derivatives prices dynamics mechanism forecast 6. Causes, onset, recovery of disaster, energy,banking,mortgage, financial crisis, asset prices bubble, debt, equities, properties NPL 7. Risks Hedging: Oil, gas, currency, interest rate futures, derivatives prices forecasts, risks hedging. 8. Corporate Governance: Operating, Cost, Financial accounting data tracking, asset price bubble and scandals cycles earning warning 9 M/A , IPO Risks :Joint ventures, pre and post M/A and IPO performance, stock prices, risks tracking. OSA challenges the unknown futures, fight competition, maximize Risk adjusted return in oil, gas ,fund investment :  OSA challenges the unknown futures, fight competition, maximize Risk adjusted return in oil, gas ,fund investment Dr. Huang over 30 year develop, implemented structural dynamic risks and return simulation, He pioneered two master hands controlling global economy, finance, capital market asset prices: extensive information knowledge base development Out of 1972 -2008 ( daily Wall Street Journals, Business Week, trading data, internet market and economic analysts, technical analysis, Monte Carlo, Risk Metric statistical analysis fail to track asset prices. He Trained thousands Taiwan, Tsinghua, Tunghai, Fudan, Peking University faculties,students, applied his Ph.D thesis Moon-landing guidance and control to challenge the unknown future He patented “ Improve Process by OSA” in US and 82 countries, 1980, published thousands articles on US, Taiwan and China government, banking, finance, investment daily news papers, and on US Oil & Gas Journal journal predicted global oil, gas, currency, interest, stock futures prices since 1980 He lectured China, Taiwan, US 15 cities ( Beijing, Shanghai, Taipei, San Francisco Silicon Valley) TV, radio , OPEC petroleum ministers, executives China/global strategic investment risk management workshops to 30 million investors, banking finance, enterprises CEO, executives since 1983. He predicted years/month ahead of 1987 US stock crisis, Asian Financial crisis 1997, US asset bubble burst 2000 and current China/US rate hikes, soaring oil, gas, commodities prices on his www.osawh.com website and predicted on Sept 2007 Wall Street Journal Street Market Beat, Real Time Economics blog that US rate cuts can not stop housing price slump resulted economic recession continue into 2008 summer and US, global stocks, fund, bear markets correction, Country Risks OSA :Monetary policy, WTO impact on inflation, GDP growth 貨幣財經政策入世對中國宏觀調控影響:  Country Risks OSA :Monetary policy, WTO impact on inflation, GDP growth 貨幣財經政策入世對中國宏觀調控影響 Excessive money supply, rate cuts,DFI resulted soaring commodity, asset prices and falling US dollar push inflation and GDP higher export Monetary policy Foreign direct investment Business demand Fixed investment Consumer demand Macro-economic inflation and GDP growth currency Commodity prices Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global/China macro-economic control and daily oil, gas, capital market asset prices since 1983:  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global/China macro-economic control and daily oil, gas, capital market asset prices since 1983 Dr. Huang structural dynamic models accurately predict economic, energy crisis since 1980 on American Institute. Chemical Engineering Washington DC, World Congress1986, Tokyo He accurately predicted in July 10, 1994 to Wall Street Journal and Wuhan Guotai, Wanguo CEO that Shanghai A index will soared to 800 from 333 in Aug.1994.(WSJ published late July China B share rebound, Shanghai A rebound to 820 in Aug-Oct, 1994) He was invited by Wanguo, Guotai and banking CEO to offer lecture to thousands investors, traders, money manager predicted Shanghai A will be traded 600-800 during 1994-1996 due to macro-economic control, results published on Wuhan securities news Oct. 31, and Beijin Financial Times 1994 He accurately predicted in Wuhan stock information journal Feb. 1995 that Shanghai A will rebound from 540 to 800. It did on May 18 soared from 590 to 920 and plunged to 580 in three days, recommended buy Shanghai Petrochemical at one dollar soared to 8 in Aug. He accurately predicted June 20, 1995 on Beijin Central Peoples radio one hour interview, and Financial Times, Economic Daily news, Commercial Times that Shanghai A will soar from 600 to 800 in Aug.1995. Predicted on Wuhan securities news March 3, 1996, that China Peoples Bank will cut interest rate, stock market go to bull markets, Shanghai A break 1600. Lectured Shanghai Eastern radio and Shanghai stock exchange, Dec. 16, 1996 to predict Shanghai A will rebound from 1000 to 1700 in 1997 after 10 % price limit. and to Beijing Peoples Bank finance staff July 2001 China stock plunge to 1500 from 2200. Predicted Nov 2003 on Euro-events China finance, capital market conference that oil, commodity, metal prices making new high , soaring inflation lead to US , China rate hikes 2004 summer, stock prices plunge and housing, stocks price bubbles 2007 bubble burst Economic, Enterprises reform, privatization MBO and IPO Prices Mechanism:  Economic, Enterprises reform, privatization MBO and IPO Prices Mechanism Privatization, board members organization, debt restructuring. Maximize corporate/plant wide cost, financial accounting tracking, operating profit margin through cost reduction and products, market innovation develop, implemented by goal, mission, performance oriented strategic (top management), and executive Operations Simulation Analysis teams maximize China, US oil, gas corporate performances and IPO stock prices in MBO/IPO prices =F (listed market investor sentiment, and corporate profit margin) = F (Shanghai/Shenzhen index, corporate profit margin) China oil/gas ADR shares prices ( SINOPEC, PetroChina, CNOOC IPO after market prices =F (China market investor sentiment, US market investor sentiment, and corporate profit margin) = F ( Dow Jones index, Shanghai/Shenzhen index, corporate profit margin) Proactive structural Inflation, interest rate Risks, Government, corporate bond yield Price Mechanism simulation:  Proactive structural Inflation, interest rate Risks, Government, corporate bond yield Price Mechanism simulation Soaring asset, commodity prices, falling currency excessive money supply led to continued China/US inflation, credit tightening led to rising interest rates and bond yields Inflation rates Interest rates and bond yield Consumer spending currency oil, commodity, asset prices Money supply growth currency Proactive Structural global currency and RMB market forces risks mechanism simulation:  Proactive Structural global currency and RMB market forces risks mechanism simulation WWW.osawh.com/currency.html tracking trade surplus/deficit, interest rate spread impact on daily 40 currencies and last 12 years RMB ( 3 to 12) since 1998,predicted last Sept, that Fed rate cuts Drag dollar to 1.5 EURO and 105 Yen. US trade deficit China/country trade surplus/deficit Daily US dollar, RMB global exchange rates futures prices Interest rate spread between US and yours Integrating into Black-Schole for derivatives prices hedging Proactive Structural China housing prices, bubbles, wealth risks mechanism simulation:  Proactive Structural China housing prices, bubbles, wealth risks mechanism simulation Housing prices and heating, appliances demand are fueled by money supply, excessive credit, stock markets wealth gain, predicted June 2007 Peking Univ, that China housing and stock prices correction late 2007 Money supply growth Mortgage interest rate Housing prices bubble, wealth Housing stock prices simulation Stock market wealth Stock index changes MBS credit derivatives Home heating demand ,prices Home appliances demand Proactive Structural Market Risks: Global/China Stock indices prices futures market mechanism simulation:  Proactive Structural Market Risks: Global/China Stock indices prices futures market mechanism simulation www.osawh.com/prod03.html tracking 40 stock indices and associated index ,ETF fund, wealth, prices are generated from money supply, lower interest rates and stock price, predict Sept 2007 that US rate cuts can not stop housing price slump drag into recession,US and global stocks into bear market correction, through summer 2008 Money supply growth Consumer spending Interest rate/inflation rate China Shanghai/Shenzhen 300 , A, B, Henseng, H-Share,Nikkei, Taiwan Index, Singapore ST H stock index, Seoul futures, Investors sentiment , trading volume US investor sentiment NY Dow Jones/Nasdaq stock index Integrate into Black-Schole For derivatives prices, hedging currency Proactive Structural China coal, oil, gas, freight, power demand, prices stock prices mechanism simulation:  Proactive Structural China coal, oil, gas, freight, power demand, prices stock prices mechanism simulation China oil, gas downstream are well positioned, fully integrated follow Dr. Huang1991 speech to SINOPEC, Beijin on globalization, integration strategy CNOOC, SINOPEC, PetroChina and coal stock prices skyatrocketing , Predicted Peking univ. 2007 that Fed rate cuts drive oil price over 100, 2008 Currency Coal, crude oil, heating oil, gasoline , futures,petrochemical, plastics prices Profit margin, stocks simulation Gasoline, heating oil, petrochemical feedstock Prices, costs Consumer Business spending Power plant rate land, ocean freight cost Coal, gas, LNG demand, price Proactive Structural Enterprises Reform and, joint venture merger/acquisition performance risks simulation:  Proactive Structural Enterprises Reform and, joint venture merger/acquisition performance risks simulation Cut pre-merger, joint venture costs by 50 % in pre-merger speculation Stock prices plunged more than 50-90 % gained in pre-merger speculation post merger integration , profit creation performances, Investor sentiments Post merger profit margin Pre and post merger profit margin Performance improvement and stock Prices simulation Post merger integration performance Pre-merger, reform goal setting targeting Proactive Structural corporate governance, asset bubble burst scandals mechanism risks early warning simulation:  Proactive Structural corporate governance, asset bubble burst scandals mechanism risks early warning simulation Tracking cost and financial accounting systems and investors sentiment speculation bubbles for scandals early warning in US Enron and China Guanxia, ST stocks and China Aviation Oil and pension fund investment in housing market scandals 2004-2007 Production and sales tracking financial accounting earning tracking Balance sheet and off-balance sheet Derivatives, IPO, merger activities tracking Strategic and execution corporate governance OSA teams tracking Cost and financial accounting stock prices Cost accounting bubble tracking Investor sentiments, housing, oil, commodity asset bubble,stock index Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of Causes, onset, recovery of Financial ,currency energy banking, bubble burst crisis and NPL loan, credit risk mechanism:  Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of Causes, onset, recovery of Financial ,currency energy banking, bubble burst crisis and NPL loan, credit risk mechanism Excessive money supply and hot money inflow resulted soaring inflation, rate hikes, trade deficit and currency plunge, rate hike and stocks, properties prices plunge and NPL loan Predicted Sept 2007 on Wall Street Market Beat that Fed rate cuts can not stop housing price slump, credit crisis and recession 2008 Strong Export growth Excess foreign capital Inflow , currency appreciation Export decline, soaring trade deficit and currency plunge Runaway inflation and interest rate hike Stock prices and consumer demand plunge leading to financial, currency, housing bubble burst default, crisis, recovery will begin until trade surplus And currency rebound, interest rate cuts, stock prices rebound www.osawh.com/riskm.html Excess money supply Consumer spending NPL Mortgage Default Proactive Structural strategic project financing risk management early warning:  Proactive Structural strategic project financing risk management early warning Two master hands controlling China and global economy and industrial sectors ,corporate profitability and stock prices for finance managers asset allocation, wealth management investment strategy, risk control avoid chasing the markets trillion dollars loss Money supply, interest rates Currency exchange rates Investors sentiments Oil, gas,LNG/downstream asset prices bubble, profit margin simulation Domestic and global market prices And risks simulation Conclusions and recommendations:  Conclusions and recommendations OSA Proactive Structural market fundamentals mechanism simulators predicted 6 month ahead the monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on macro-economic, capital market asset prices to achieve sustainable profit growth systemic and specific risks, early warning supporting strategic China banking, finance, enterprises, capital market reform innovation Which avoided trillion dollar market loss due to current betting on the wrong side of investment,chasing the markets, speculation on technical charts, market, business, economic data. It provide QFII, QDII rational, reliable decision investment and risk management decision tools in asst allocation, wealth management Thousand strategic structural dynamic OSA models tracking China and global economic and daily capital market asset prices supporting China and global capital market decision makers through in-houseworkshops, corporate memberships and full banking, finance, enterprises reform, change management OSA program Conclusions and Recommendation:  Conclusions and Recommendation Proactive OSA simulators predicted years to 6 month ahead the monetary, economic, fiscal policy ,impact on macro-economic control, capital market asset interest rate, currency, oil, gas, downstream demand, prices to achieve sustainable profit growth and prices stability Monetary , economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on China capital markets asset prices simulation provide early warning to future oil, gas LNG, upstream/ downstream project financing market, credit, operational risks is the key to sustainable profit growth Monetary , economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on China capital markets asset prices simulation, early warning avoided trillion dollar market loss due to current chasing the markets, speculation on technical charts, market, business, economic data. It provide financing managers rational, reliable decision investment and risk management decision tools in asset allocation, wealth management Proactive Structural SH-SZ300 stock index future e-GARCH-OSA:  Proactive Structural SH-SZ300 stock index future e-GARCH-OSA Tracking China Peoples Bank money supply, inflation, housing price,US mortgage crisis Dow Jones index impact on daily Sh-Sz 300 futures.Accurately predict on Peking Univ, Wall Street Journal Sept 2007, SHSZ follow China rate hikes, raise 10 time deposit ratio and US stocks into bear market correction, plunged from 6000 to 4000 Jan 2008 LN Index Residual Proactive Structural Simulation of Dow Jones stock index futures:  Proactive Structural Simulation of Dow Jones stock index futures US money supply growth % This simulator predicted last 20 years daily ,Dow Jones index since 1987 crash,With average error below 1.5%, correlation above 0.96. Predicted last Sept on Wall Street Journal Market Beat that Fed rate cuts can not stop housing price slump into summer 2008, drag US to recession, Dow Jones plunge below 12000

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