Changing Business Trends: asset based information modelling

60 %
40 %
Information about Changing Business Trends: asset based information modelling
Business & Mgmt

Published on February 26, 2014

Author: ipga

Source: slideshare.net

India Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA) The Pulses Conclave 2014 February 19-21. Goa. Global Agriculture Market Drivers and Outlook 2014 G. Chandrashekhar The Hindu Business Line

Global Agri-markets . . . so far • After 3 years of adverse weather-effects, markets turned benign in 2013 • Normal weather; rebound in major crops output – rice, wheat, corn, oilcrops, cotton • World agri markets in modest surplus • Speculative capital stayed in the sidelines • Liquidity-driven commodity boom ‘tapering’

What to expect in 2014? • Markets are looking generally bearish!!!! • Decent harvests, replenished stocks are key drivers across grains & oilseeds in 2014 • High prices in 2010-2012 incentivized production expansion, rationed demand; • Softer prices in H2 2013 will encourage stock building;

Outlook for 2014 • Corn: market looking bearish due to over-supplies; US plantings may surprise to the upside; if weather holds, further build up in stocks possible; • Wheat: prices will follow corn lower; especially post-July harvests; but winterkill issues and Argentina’s lower exports can tighten US stocks;

Outlook 2014 • Cotton: constructive short-term due to tight ex-China supplies and stronger demand for US exports; • Sugar: bearish short-term due to higher than expected surplus for the current season; needs to be worked off; prices may turn bullish from late 2014 on poor supply incentive; tiny deficit in 2014-15

Outlook 2014 • Soybean: tighter fundamentals than grains; SouthAm crop + potentially higher US plantings in spring will see prices ease gently over 2014-15; but strong Chinese demand and tight US stocks remain supportive factors; • Soyoil: changes in US biofuel mandate have created a bearish market; large soy crush program means more oil; • Soymeal: supplies should improve, depending on Argentina, easing price pressure

In sum . . . . • 2014 expect benign global weather (although we may be only one El Nino away from a disaster) • US Fed ‘Tapering’ to reduce liquidity; US dollar to get stronger; Geopolitical situation not volatile, so crude to remain soft; • Limited price appreciation potential means speculative capital will stay away;

Softer prices now …. may impact 2015 • FAO Food Price Index fell in January for first time in 3 months on lower prices of cereals, sugar, oils, meat; • Lower prices stimulating demand; Asian demand rising; • But, softer prices may impact plantings and production in 2015

World Market for Pulses • 2013-14 global pulses output ~ 70 million tons (up 4%); • Field Pea: record 11.2 ml.t (up 10%), mainly dry green pea; growers responded to 2012-13 high prices; yellow pea up too • Chickpea: 13 ml.t (up from 11.1 ml.t) • Dry bean 22.6 ml.t. • Trade in field pea and dry bean 4.5 ml.t each; chickpea 2 ml.t.

World Pulses Trade • Exporters target South Asia - India and neighbours; Canada, USA, Australia, Myanmar • China emerging as major importer of peas after India; food use growing; • As world agri-prices turn softer, will pulses defy gravity?

India – the mover and shaker • Record harvest in 2013-14 (19.8 ml.t) v/s target 19.0 ml.t and 2012-13 (18.4 ml.t) • Government policies and research inputs working • Marked slow down in import (2.7 ml.t. projected for 2013-14 fiscal v/s 3.8 ml.t. in 2012-13)

Thank You • G. Chandrashekhar The Hindu Business Line Kasturi Building, J. Tata Road, Churchgate, Mumbai 400020. INDIA Phone: 91 22 22885593 – 22021099 email: chandrashekhar.g@thehindu.co.in email: gchandrashekhar@gmail.com

Add a comment

Related presentations

Related pages

Changing Business Trends - Asset Based Business Modelling ...

29 mm Cotton APR-16 17750 | * NCDEX * |29 mm Cotton MAR-16 16880 | * NCDEX * |29 mm Cotton FEB-16 16670 | * NCDEX * |Barley JUL-16 1448 | * NCDEX * |Barley ...
Read more

Big data: changing the way businesses compete and operate

information assets and address disconnects between different ... multiple business lines. • Modeling, ... Big data — Changing the way businesses ...
Read more

Asset/liability modeling - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Asset/liability modeling ... situation and likely future trends. Highlight key asset and liability ... using randomly ordered returns based on a set ...
Read more

Ten IT-enabled business trends for the decade ahead ...

Ten IT-enabled business trends for the ... or to create new services based on sanitized information ... assets: Ten tech-enabled business trends to ...
Read more

An Introduction to the Business Model for Information Security

The Business Model for Information Security is based ... information as a critical asset, ... Model for Information Security Changing business, ...
Read more

IT cost transparency - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

IT cost transparency combines elements of activity based costing, business ... IT Cost Transparency: ... The Changing Face of Asset Management ...
Read more

Time Series Analysis for Business Forecasting

... the company compete in a changing business ... Modeling the Causal Time Series: ... business time series, the trend in the smoothed series ...
Read more

Business Process Modelling - Business Process Models ...

example of a business process model diagram. This example of a Business Process Model diagram is based on an ...
Read more