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Information about CCGS

Published on April 13, 2008

Author: Elodie


From Atoms To Bits Culture, Collaboration and Global Sustainability:  From Atoms To Bits Culture, Collaboration and Global Sustainability David Leevers, BA, MIEE, VERS Associates, Virtual Environments for Real Societies CDS, Clinic for Dissociative Studies, London Based on the presentation “From a Psycho History to a Sane Future”, International Psychohistorical Association, 27th Annual Convention, New York, 3rd June 2004 Version 15, 17/8/07 This web adaptation of the presentation has been continually amended in the light of comments from the audience and others. “Collaboration Technologies” are now presented as a tool for the rapid propagation of “Helping Mode” childrearing, not as a childrearing mode in its own right Underlined words are active Web links Most references and active links to references have yet to be added. Some slides still to be translated into “intelligent layman” language. For best appearance print one slide per page in PowerPoint, 4 pages per A4 sheet in the Print: Properties: window From Atoms to bits Index:  Index INTRODUCTION CHILDHOOD IN HISTORY SOCIAL EVOLUTION - THE LOSERS EVOLUTION OF HUMANITY FROM MAGIC AND RELIGION TO RATIONAL SECULAR SOCIETY FROM CLOSED TO OPEN SOCIETY AN OPEN BUT IMMATURE AND UNSTABLE SOCIETY? THE SUSTAINABLE OPEN SOCIETY THE SOLUTION: SOCIAL SIMULATION + IMMATERIALISATION CONCLUSIONS INTRODUCTION:  INTRODUCTION Introduction:  Introduction Social advances have increasingly been triggered by new technologies; firstly the material technologies of boat, wheel and steam and then the information technologies of centralised printing, broadcasting and Internet documents. Humans have multiplied to over-fill the earth and now the global warming consequences of material technologies are more than cancelling any further benefits. Information technologies further exacerbate the problem because they speed the dissemination of material technologies and, through centralisation, increase unsustainable and unethical polarisation between rich and poor. The collaboration technologies of the peer-to-peer two-way broadband multimedia internet can offer a way out. They are not restricted by distance, language or age group, and tend to subvert cultural barriers. Collaboration technologies amplify our social capabilities and offer sustainable “immaterial” alternatives to the western desires for ever larger homes and ever more travel. The collaboration technologies of instant global media can speed up the culture changes necessary to enjoy less travel and smaller homes because they act faster than the generational transmission of material values from parent to child If sustainable cultures can be introduced fast enough it may be possible to prolong the survival of mankind by decades or perhaps even centuries. Summary 1, Technology :  Summary 1, Technology A Short History of Technology! Before 1900: agricultural & material technologies empowered the body 20th century: information technologies empowered the mind 21st onwards: collaboration technologies empower the social mind The material technology and information technology eras have taken the West - from tribal life: infanticidal, miserable and short: 45 years, 7.5 with some form of disability - to western liberal democracy: 80 years, only 6 with some form of disability. Homo sapiens appears to have emerged as the most successful hunter-gatherer of the homo genus because our enormous neocortex and integrated mind allows a unique quality of collaboration and planning that more than makes up for the weakness of our bodies and the strength of our egos. Unlike the material and information technologies, the new collaboration technologies of information and communication have the potential to fully realise our moral and social capabilities – from homo sapiens sapiens to homo democraticus. Summary 2, Collaboration:  Summary 2, Collaboration This evolutionary and historical perspective on technology draws on the psychological understanding of culture and value change articulated in Lloyd deMause’s “History of Childhood”. Lloyd deMause charts our progress from a primate-like “Infanticidal Mode” in the first tribal societies to the most humane “Helping Mode” that is now emerging in prosperous western countries. This slow but accelerating social progress is difficult to recognise because it can be hidden by the “Geography of Childhood” (the enormous differences in childrearing in different cultures) and obscured by the roughly 50 year (two generation) cycle between war and peace, economic progress and recession. The ever-increasing understanding of the process of culture transmission during childhood that has come from large scale longitudinal studies is now being captured in ever-improving social models.These models are needed to identify and avoid deleterious side-effects of the new collaboration technologies. is needed to ensure we take full advantage of the new collaboration technologies. Because these technologies encourage socially responsible lifestyles they can dramatically reduce energy and material consumption and offer a credible route to global sustainability, probably reached via a “global network society”. A Mental Health Warning:  A Mental Health Warning The following material on the painful evolution of childhood and of humanity may be triggering. Don’t read on if you find it difficult to accept - that we cannot turn away from the sufferings of those in other cultures that the human species has already killed about 10 billion infants, usually girls, usually neglect, usually traditional societies that our chosen leaders can now wipe out the planet by killing a far smaller number that our nearest neighbour in evolution, the bonobo, is the most hetero- and homosexually active higher animal that our collaboration abilities - empathy, communication, imagination, ability to anticipate pain - imply that language barriers are bad and global exchange is good. These abilities are best manifested in a fair and equitable society that a holistic/systems perspective backed up by social simulation can be used to anticipate and avoid undesirable surprises on the path to global coexistence CHILDHOOD IN HISTORY:  CHILDHOOD IN HISTORY Childrearing Defines Society, Not Vice Versa:  Childrearing Defines Society, Not Vice Versa “The main problem is that the evolution of child rearing has so far been a slow, uneven historical process, depending greatly on increasing the support given innovative mothers and their hopeful daughters. Unfortunately, in a world where our destructive technology has far outrun our child-rearing progress where a single submarine can now carry a sufficient number of nuclear warheads to destroy most of the world with the push of a button - we do not have the luxury of just waiting for child rearing to evolve. If we do, we will certainly blow ourselves up long before child abuse disappears enough to make us want to disarm. What we need now is some way for the more advanced psychoclasses to teach child rearing to the less evolved parents, a way to end child abuse and neglect quickly enough to avoid the global holocaust that is awaiting us.” Lloyd deMause (originator of Psychohistory) “The Emotional Life of Nations”, p 431, 2002 I suggest that Collaboration Technologies might offer a more neutral, less colonial, way for “the less evolved parents” to learn sustainable child rearing, i.e. the Helping Mode defined below. The emerging global network can disseminate such information much faster and less offensively than generational transmission from “the more evolved psychoclasses”. Can dissemination of a new network assisted culture be fast enough to prevent nuclear holocaust, or global warming holocaust, and thus ensure long-term global sustainability? Psychohistory:  Psychohistory Psychohistory is the study of the psychological motivations of historical events. It combines the insights of modern psychoanalysis with the research methodology of the social sciences to understand the emotional origins of the social and political behaviour of individuals, groups and nations, past and present. Psychohistorical understanding of the shaping factors of human history comes from areas that tend to be ignored by conventional historians such as parenting practice and the level of child abuse. Psychotherapists in general now recognise that wars and other destructive social behaviours can be re-enactments of very early abuse and neglect. Memories and flashbacks to early fears concerning destructive parenting are often triggered by very reasonable fears concerning the potential actions of others. Particular successes have been in identifying the brutality of all but recent childrearing, the processes that led to the World War II, and the acting out of his childhood humiliations by President Bush. Alas psychohistory is not popular with politicians, religious leaders and any others who may well have acquired power and influence through such acting out. Evolution of Childrearing Modes in Western Elites:  Evolution of Childrearing Modes in Western Elites 2000 Lloyd deMause 1975 Psychohistorians see the West as having evolved from the “Infanticidal Mode” child-rearing seen in other social animals (and in most tribal societies) to the “Helping Mode” of priviledged, prosperous and educated but resource-intensive and fragile nuclear families. The “Helping Mode” culture could spread rapidly to all children if the new collaboration technologies were used to introduce this culture to resource starved and fragmented families, providing a safe and nurturing environment for every child everywhere. This spread of the helping mode could be very fast because it takes full advantage of Information and Communications Technologies Characteristics of Childrearing Modes:  Characteristics of Childrearing Modes SOCIAL EVOLUTION - THE LOSERS:  SOCIAL EVOLUTION - THE LOSERS War and Civilisation:  War and Civilisation The traditional anthropologists fantasy of the noble savage has been eroded by ever improving observation of hunter-gatherer and tribal life. An understanding of generational transmission in early cultures is making sense of the increasing evidence of the painful history of tribal childhood, violence and even trade. We are no longer taken in by the public face of tribes who are intelligent and proud as ourselves. The homicide rate of the “peaceful” Kalahari bushmen is higher than in any US inner city, Samoan teenagers demonstrated advanced storytelling skills when talking to Margaret Mead, and the sea of young smiles in a tribal village is because both unhappiness and age quickly leads to death when modern medicine is not available. New studies in the 1990’s indicate that the almost universal 25% per annum male death rate from conflict in tribal societies dropped to 3% in 20th century Germany and to more like 1% in other Western countries. Trade and Civilisation:  Trade and Civilisation Violence is likely to occur when trading of goods or emotions fails due to lack of information about the material or psychological capabilities of the other. When the other is a nation the violence is war. A primary benefit of the rapidly expanding neocortex of pre-humans appears to have been a increasing ability to engage in complex trades, a tooth for an eye, a flint for a meal, a marriage for a dowry. Animals rarely fight to the death because their fighting capabilities have evolved to be totally visible: the size of the antlers, the dexterity of the courtship dance and the symmetry of the body. With language and technology our power to deceive and damage grew so much faster than the visibility of our intentions and our weapons. It was not until material technologies were superseded by the new collaboration technologies that we could hope to achieve comparable visibility of our intentions and military strengths. We are already trusting larger and larger numbers of other people; clans, then tribes, then nations, and now power blocks. Absolute numbers of deaths from violence grow, but percentages have already dropped - from 25% in tribes to 1% in the West. Currently we are approaching global visibility of capabilities and intentions. A Contemporary Window on the Tribal World:  A Contemporary Window on the Tribal World Everyone is different. Not every family has the ability to progress through the 7 modes of childhood. Very small numbers of western families remain stuck in the Infanticidal Mode. In a modern society this mode can take the form of ritual abuse, secret sadistic cult behaviour that includes witchcraft. The effects of abuse starting at birth include trauma and dissociation. These effects have been more clearly observed by therapists of ritually abused children than by anthropologists studying tribal societies Universal schooling has been an important part of progress to the more advanced childrearing modes. The cloak of family secrecy is hard to maintain when children go to school and so the number of infanticidal mode ritual abuse families steadily decreases. DID: Infanticidal Mode Is Still Relevant:  DID: Infanticidal Mode Is Still Relevant Most of the 3 billion people living on less than $2 per day are trapped in the infanticidal or abandoning modes. Such a childhood can lead to dissociation (psychic separation of mind and body) and, in extreme cases, DID, Dissociative Identity Disorder (previously known as Multiple Personality Disorder). DID is a way of reducing and containing the experience of pain when both love and torture are experienced from the same attachment figures. DID is most easily acquired before the modules of the unfinished infant brain integrates into a single personality. The infant finds that pain can be confined to the personality or alter that experiences it. As childrearing improves the alters become weaker. But at times of war and fear of death the anger and fear encapsulated in Lloyd deMause’s “Killer Goddess Alter” and “Killer Mommy Alter” can overwhelm rational decision making. Understanding the extreme of dissociation can help define the scope and limits of the human mind and its pathologies in individuals, in groups and in society as a whole. Such an understanding is essential if models of mind and society are to be informative enough to prevent destroying society with side-effects from accelerating culture changes (e.g. ADHD a result of babies and infants viewing hyperactive TV) EVOLUTION OF HUMANITY:  EVOLUTION OF HUMANITY Neoteny and the Integrated Mind:  Neoteny and the Integrated Mind Problem solving in advanced social animals is very context dependent. Without the integrating and abstracting power of a large neocortex and symbolic language they find it difficult to transfer experience from one type of situation to another. The flexible integrated mind of humans appears to have started emerging about 2 million years ago. It appears to have been rapid because it required little more, genetically, than progressive neoteny in which our adult ancestors became more like infant apes: mental flexibility, playfulness, big brains, fragile bodies. The neoteny process also included being born when the human brain is exceptionally undeveloped (yet is still so large that a larger fraction of humans die or need support during childbirth than any other mammal). At the development stage when the structure of the ape brain is being defined by the secure and boring womb, the human brain is already being influenced by the social and cultural activities of the immediate family Lamarkian Evolution of Culture?:  Lamarkian Evolution of Culture? A brain tuned to social interaction rather than immediate problem solving may have to be far more integrated than that of our nearest relatives, the apes. Consciousness may well be a side effect of this integration. It may be unexplainable because we cannot step outside it to observe it. All we can do is be aware of it? If the mother is alternately loving and sadistic, e.g. suffering from Dissociative Identity Disorder, integration and empathy are hindered and the child reverts to the hypervigilant and dissociative behaviour of prey species such as antelope. Brain scans have shown that they are dissociative - one part of the brain sleeps while another keeps an eye out for predators. In the case of infanticidal humans the predator is the parent - but they are usually consuming the child's feelings, not the child’s body. Occasionally a parent captures a glimpse of a slightly better life, and this aspiration can be passed on as a new element in the culture of their children. Thus advance through the childrearing modes may be a form of Lamarckian evolution – the child acquires the aspirations of the parent The Prehensile Neocortex Prehensile – ability to grasp any thing (or any concept):  The Prehensile Neocortex Prehensile – ability to grasp any thing (or any concept) Recent prehuman evolution has prolonged childhood characteristics into adulthood. As we have become physically weaker our increasingly childlike adult selves need the protection of increasingly larger social groups (one man v one lion - bad, 100 men v one lion - good). In addition to the above neoteny there was evolutionary pressure to enlarge the neocortex to handle the social complexity of large groups. This rapid evolution has left a few loose ends: Back pain – result of insufficient skeletal evolution since standing on hind legs Physical pain – side-effects of the expanded neocortex include advanced consciousness and the integrated mind that brings with it the ever-present memory of past pain. Existential pain – the cries and prayers of those infant mammals that do survive to adulthood were answered by their very much larger parents. A side effect of retaining a neotenous childlike brain may be a religious instinct - adults still need the support of a relatively large and powerful parent God the parent, God the tribal ancestor, God the humanity ancestor, God the universe ancestor The Psychohistory/Attachment Perspective on Childhood Abuse:  The Psychohistory/Attachment Perspective on Childhood Abuse Non-disabled children are not so carefully monitored. There are increasing indications that a substantial fraction of mental illness is a result of childhood events that were not seen as abusive at the time (and may only have a deleterious effect on the most vulnerable children). Large scale longitudinal studies are giving results but take about 20 years. Reviewing the extensive home videos of the childhoods that started to be recorded about 20 years ago may give quicker results. What might be possible if there was a digital record of all childhoods? Perhaps all unintentional childhood traumas could be diagnosed or even avoided? In a 1994 study it was found that every member of a sample of 164 learning disabled patients that required psychotherapy at a London clinic had early trauma… – but their behaviour was seen as part of their learning disability. The earliest trauma comes from realising that society wishes they were dead. Child patients acted out earlier sexual abuse as inappropriate sexual behaviour; more socially aware adults acted it out in violence. None of them had an illness as such, just their response to earlier experiences. Valerie Sinason, unpublished PhD thesis, 2004. Increasing Visibility, Reducing Abuse:  Increasing Visibility, Reducing Abuse The “peaceful” Kalahari bushmen have a higher homicide rate than Western inner cities. They appear peaceful because they only know about murders in their own small group and, because they cannot avoid pain and suffering, they have to learn to dissociate from it. The more advanced child-rearing modes prevent such dissociation. Without dissociation people cannot stand much physical pain and so try to reduce the suffering of others Improving media and mass communications give an impression that abuse and murder are rising. Fortunately this leads to social responses that do in fact reduce the level of violence. This “virtuous circle” of “runaway morality” drives advance through the childrearing modes Unfortunately “physical dissociation” can be an escape. Many cannot face visiting the sweat shops of the third world, and so reduce the equalising and humanising potential of globalisation. Only when some progress has been made can society face how bad things were in the past, for instance: 1970s - UK government stated 300 cases of incest in UK 1990s – Acceptance that there are about 10 million survivors of incest in UK 1990s – “There is no Satanic abuse in UK” – UK Health Minister 2000s – about 2000 survivors of Satanist abuse have contacted professionals in UK. The Unconscious Mind - The Moral Instinct:  The Unconscious Mind - The Moral Instinct “Blind Sight”, there can be unconscious visual awareness if the visual cortex is damaged. Visual information is routed through the early brain, bypassing the conscious mind. “Blind Morality” (Moral Instinct) uses early unconscious reciprocal altruism brain structures that evolved as a form of fitness for a very social species with a big brain but a fragile body. Excessive respect for the logical conscious mind by leaders of society may explain a reluctance to accept the emotional roots of “Blind Morality”. Hence the many academic muddles over the concept of freewill, the conflict between the existence of evil and an all powerful, all good God, and the inevitable question “Who created God”. The Global Sustainability Conundrum: How can a global society based on new and rapidly changing technology trust a moral instinct that evolved for survival in small hunter-gatherer groups? The 6th Sense: Brain as a Prediction Machine:  The 6th Sense: Brain as a Prediction Machine Perhaps we do not show enough respect for our 6th sense - the unconscious social and moral instincts that evolved for survival as a very social animal. Perhaps clairvoyants and healers have given the 6th sense a bad name amongst the rationalists and reductionists? Clairvoyants and healers have often had an abusive childhood. The resulting hyperawareness and dissociation effectively strengthens the ability to unconsciously sense other peoples feelings and drives. In most people this sense has been overwhelmed by the single track logic and language of the integrated conscious rational mind. For half a billion years neural networks have helped animals to survive by learning past patterns and recognising them when repeated – Pavlov, etc. These networks evolved into brains under three levels of evolutionary pressure: 1, Recognising repeating patterns in the “Environment of Evolutionary Adaptation” 2, Predator-prey feedback, each species learning the behaviour patterns of the other 3, Within-species feedback between competing neighbouring groups in social animals. This is faster than predator-prey feedback because the more successful genes can spread to all groups of the same species. Related to sexual selection and culminates in the Machiavellian or social brain. The Social Brain and the Outcast :  The Social Brain and the Outcast The average size of a social group in a species of ape is roughly proportional to the neocortex/brain volume ratio (Robin Dunbar). Extrapolation shows the maximum group size for humans is about 150, up from about 50 for chimpanzees. This matches the size of tribes and the maximum size of small organisations. Above this size trust weakens and rules are required. Trust is primarily built in apes by grooming, in humans by gossip. In a tribal group the same 150 person social group is shared by every member. Side-effect: it is safe to classify outsiders as sub-human and dispensable. Technology increases the openness of society (wheel, then paper, then printing, railways, the telephone, then airplanes, now Internet) and thus increases the uniqueness of each person’s 150 person social group. Tyranny becomes impossible, everyone is connected to everyone else and my enemy might be my friend’s friend (6 degrees of separation). The telephone, perhaps the most powerful collaboration technology ever invented, encourages democratic values and appears to discourage war. There has never been a war between two countries each with more than 1 telephone per 20 people. (Only 1 telephone per 30 people in Iraq - they nearly made it!) FROM MAGIC AND RELIGION TO RATIONAL SECULAR SOCIETY:  FROM MAGIC AND RELIGION TO RATIONAL SECULAR SOCIETY From Artificial Intelligence to “Society of Mind”:  From Artificial Intelligence to “Society of Mind” Early AI researchers tried to implement the mind half of the Cartesian body-mind duality and failed. Recent research, starting with evolutionary thinking and “Society of Mind” by Marvin Minsky in the early 1970’s, is increasingly successful. Animal brains appear to be made up of fairly separate problem-solving modules. Even in social animals the modules have limited communication with others. The human neocortex grew enormously through rapid social/sexual selection in an evolutionary race between competing social groups. (The DID brain has partially reverted to the modular structure). The efficiency of language freed up much of the neocortex for imagination, awareness of death, etc. and increasing ability to forecast the future We can now forecast the physical world with incredible accuracy. However, to survive on an increasingly crowded planet, we need to forecast the behaviour of this “society of minds” far more accurately than before. This will require learning from our history as well as from the new research areas of Artificial Life and Social Robotics. New Technology –> New Culture?:  New Technology –> New Culture? Useful technologies stimulate the emergence of new cultures, e.g. Writing and Wheel, ~ 3500 BC: stability of written concepts and mobility of physical location eventually led to the concept of a universal non-localised non-tribal God Industrial Machinery, ~ 1800: the first metaphor for mental power and complexity - the mind-body duality of Descartes and the tidy world of the enlightenment Computer Languages, 1950s: helped to escape behaviourist thinking, Chomsky etc. - but treated the mind as logical machine, not an emotional machine “Society of Mind”, 1970s: superseded early reductionist Artificial Intelligence, 1975 - showed a mind includes emotion as well as thought, helped understanding of DID and dissociation as a dysfunctional society inside the head, 1985 on. Artificial Life, 1990s: integrated approach to mind and body, acceptance of the body therapies, indicated how both thinking and emotions are mediated by the body, Rodney Brookes et al. Artifical Society, 2000s: Social Robotics, statistical evidence poised to supersede ideology, evidence-based social change From Desire via Fantasy to Reality:  From Desire via Fantasy to Reality New science is developed into new technology if it can turn fantasy into reality Desire: Fantasy superseded by reality e.g. Healing: miracles superseded by medicine, Happiness: heaven superseded by long healthy life Telepathy: clairvoyance superseded by television Flying: broomsticks superseded by planes Morality based on fear of God (extrapolating into adulthood the feared parents of early childrearing modes) is being replaced by one based on respect for humanity. (survival of the species?) This progress is encouraged by the new collaborative technologies that support Helping Mode child-rearing. A child’s questions as it tries to understand society and the environment can be used to create fear and a need for God, or to create wonder and an appreciation of humanity and the universe. Children whose social needs have been satisfied tend to develop a more humane “secular rational” culture that does not need God, Goddess or afterlife. Scientists and technologists may be the primary precursors of this human-centred culture. In 500 years their numbers have risen from a handful to millions, and their culture is the first to have become truly global. Declining Belief in God and Hell:  100% Declining Belief in God and Hell 1981 1990 Belief in Hell Belief in God US UK France Sweden Sweden France UK US 0% A collaborative culture is needed both for effective scientific secular-rational thinking and to achieve global sustainability. Acceptance of imminent apocalypse is emerging in US and other fundamentalist cultures. Perhaps it is panic at the declining importance of their gods rather than a rational expectation of the imminent end to this species? General Population 400 “Greater” Scientists 1914 1934 1996 Larson, etc. 30% 0% 30% “Heaven, we have a Problem”:  “Heaven, we have a Problem” Religion makes us happy. War makes us happy But haven't we forgotten something – history is written by the winners Both religion and war create enormous amounts of unhappiness – most of it in those on the losing side If we adopt a social and holistic perspective rather than an egocentric one, by including the the destroyed and defeated, we might find: religion and war decrease the happiness of others by more than they increase the happiness of the believer! The suffering in the loser is obviously greater than the happiness of the winner when the believing winner is in the first world and the suffering is in the third. For instance the spiritual happiness of some first world Catholics has been slightly increased by preventing African AIDS sufferers from using condoms. But the sum total of global happiness is obviously decreased when the Africans are included. Technology to Culture Transfer in Europe:  Technology to Culture Transfer in Europe The European Community funds the short term inefficiencies of people of different cultures and languages working together on research and development. Indirectly this also helps to spread the secular-rational culture of science and technology. There is increasing EC concern over social issues as the scope of digital technology has expanded from self-contained gadgets to the global social infrastructure. A few early projects explored how computers could increase collaboration and reduce conflict during the 9-5 working day of the 40 year working life, e.g CICC - Collaborative Integrated Communications for the Construction industry Now there is a need to address the 24 hour day and 80 year long lifetime. Post Kyoto, global sustainability was added to the EC research agenda. However assimilating East Europe countries is now the priority. Western Europe does understand the wider message of psychohistory and is prepared to invest in protecting childhood from the damaging effects of poverty Europe: Preventing Impoverished Childrearing:  Europe: Preventing Impoverished Childrearing 30% 20% 10% 0% Children born into Poverty Infancy continuing in Poverty USA France Germany & Sweden The proportion of children brought up in poverty is 8 times higher in the US than in Western Europe The social support systems of Western Europe recognise the importance of advanced childrearing modes in achieving socialised and secure personalities, and that this can be achieved by protecting childhood from poverty This huge difference has damaging consequences throughout life, e.g. proportion in prison 10 times higher in US unhappiness in US life made bearable by greater belief in God and afterlife (only 1/5th as many agnostics in US) US social inequity accepted as a precursor of inequity in the afterlife (3 times as many believe in Hell in US) Ref: Richardson, 1994 Help from State and Family FROM CLOSED TO OPEN SOCIETY:  FROM CLOSED TO OPEN SOCIETY Why “Things are getting better” all the time:  Why “Things are getting better” all the time How can a species that evolved in hunter-gatherer groups, with an infanticidal mode childhood and all that implies in terms of subsequent behaviour, have the ability to live sustainably in peace and harmony as a global community of up to 10 billion people? The necessary social progress may be a side-effect of the emergence of the integrated mind, spoken language and symbolic thinking. Self-awareness allows us to stand outside ourselves and understand the dynamics of conflict and the long term consequences of aggression. We appear to switch between good times and bad times over a double-generational Kondratieff cycle of about 50 years. There is also a long term improvement in quality of life (averaged across all countries, not just the current successes) as we progress through the child rearing modes. Of course, on the longest timescale this progress is irrelevant - eventually we will be blown away by the sun or prematurely by a cosmic interloper such as a meteor. On the shorter timescale there are new dangers in wilder manic-depressive oscillations of an increasingly synchronised global society The Four Societies Paradigm:  The Four Societies Paradigm 1, Tribal – Typically 150 member closed social group, Closed, Abusive, Infanticidal 2, National – Transport technologies, economies of scale. Dark Satanic Mills Rise of hierarchy and individuals, weakened social obligations 3, Multinational – Information technologies, empowered citizens but fragmented families. Only works well if there is peace between countries, freedom of information and effective international law. Otherwise open to abuse and unstable. 4, Global – Collaboration technologies: the Internet and media support a worldwide social network in which the average individual’s unique social group includes 150 people. No one can be ostracised or treated as sub-human because everyone is connected to everyone else in the interlocking mesh of social relationships. (6 degrees of freedom) Restores the social advantages but avoids the abusive side of traditional extended families. A graphical framework for expressing social change, developed in European “Information Society Technologies” project ASSIST. In the following this paradigm is related to Lloyd DeMause childrearing modes The Western Route to the Sustainable Global Network Society?:  The Western Route to the Sustainable Global Network Society? Focus on Community Focus on Individual Closed Societies Isolated Tyrannical Xenophobic Open Societies Fair International Democratic 1, Traditional Society Tribal 2, Industrial Society National 3, Information Society Multinational 4, Network Society Global 1900 2000 ?2050 1800 1600 The Western Route The Drivers Towards the Sustainable Global Network Society?:  The Drivers Towards the Sustainable Global Network Society? Community Individual Closed Societies Open Societies 1, Traditional Society Tribal 1, Industrial Society National 3, Information Society Multinational 4, Network Society Global Up to 19thC Agricultural/Material Technologies 20th C Information Technologies 21stC Collaboration Technologies The Drivers Lloyd deMause Childrearing Modes :  Lloyd deMause Childrearing Modes Community Individual Closed Societies Open Societies 1, Traditional Society Tribal 2, Industrial Society National 3, Information Society Multinational 4, Network Society Global Infanticidal Abandoning, from 400AD Ambivalent, from 1200 Intrusive, from 1700 Socialising, from 1870 Helping, from 1950 Western Childhood Third World Short-Cut To Sustainable Global Network Society?:  Third World Short-Cut To Sustainable Global Network Society? Community Individual Closed Societies Open Societies 1, Traditional Society Tribal 2, Industrial Society National 3, Information Society Multinational 4, Network Society Global Third World Sustainable Path First World Unsustainable Prototype Abandoning Ambivalent Intrusive at 2000 Helping Socialising Avoiding the temporary switch from collaboration and community to competition and individual during western industrialisation Infanticidal at 2000 “Contraction and Convergence” towards Sustainable Global Network Society?:  “Contraction and Convergence” towards Sustainable Global Network Society? Community Individual Closed Societies Open Societies 1, Traditional Society Tribal 2, Industrial Society National 3, Information Society Multinational 4, Network Society Global Third World Sustainable Path First World Unsustainable Prototype Abandoning Ambivalent Intrusive at 2000 at 2000 Helping Socialising The material and energy gulf between rich and poor has to be closed Infanticidal Western Expansion Convergence Maximum Divergence Contraction An Inconvenient Truth?:  US society is still focused on individual not community and is feeling the need for retribution for recent prosperity. Hence the acceptance of imminent global apocalypse - and lack of desire to prevent it An Inconvenient Truth? Individual Open Societies 3, Information Society Multinational 4, Network Society Global Europe continues towards Helping Mode? Intrusive US reverting to Intrusive Mode? Socialising AN OPEN BUT IMMATURE AND UNSTABLE SOCIETY?:  AN OPEN BUT IMMATURE AND UNSTABLE SOCIETY? Where is the Social Glue? Social Changes over Last 30 Years (UK):  Where is the Social Glue? Social Changes over Last 30 Years (UK) Five times as many births outside marriage: 8% in 1971, 40% in 1999 Then: Dissociation as protection in dead marriages? Now: Adult fulfilment but child suffering? Three times as many children brought up by lone parent: 7% in 1972, 21% in 2000 What replaces attachment to the other parent and the extended family? Are there enough helpers for “Helping Mode” childrearing to work for everyone? Nearly three times as many suicides per 100,000 in young men ages 15-24, 7 in 1971, 17 in 1998 NB 50-75% of male suicidees were brought up by a lone parent Smaller increase for girls aged 15-24, 3 in 1971, 4.5 in 1998 (But suicide dropping for 65 and over, 25 in 1971, 15 in 1998 perhaps showing that more people reach retirement without disability) Combining the above: suicide rate for the son of a lone parent in 1998 is 10 times the average in 1971 The $10,000 Knee of the Happiness Curve:  The $10,000 Knee of the Happiness Curve Happiness / Quality of Life $10,000 Income per Person France UK US Sweden China Russia Ronald Inglehart 1997 The $10,000 Happiness Plateau, 2:  The $10,000 Happiness Plateau, 2 Jeremey Bentham’s criterion: “The greatest happiness for the greatest number” This implies social and economic differences are reduced but not eliminated. The current convergence of average income and happiness between advanced western countries is striking. This “Happiness Plateau” suggests that post-materialist lifestyles could be the sustainability answer - income has a small but positive effect on happiness above about $10,000. But income inequity within countries and between nations has doubled in the last 30 years. This foments fear in the rich and envy in the poor, hence Quality of Life, Happiness, has not increased in the West in the last 30 years. Terrorism and Increasing Inequity:  Terrorism and Increasing Inequity Conflict is no longer between nations but between the western hegemony and envious and educated outsiders who were brought up in more primitive childrearing modes – fundamentalists, terrorists. Social globalisation has blurred national boundaries and encouraged western/global liberal democracy and cultural flexibility. One catalyst has been the many extended families now bridging the 1st and 3rd worlds. The number of democracies is also steadily increasing. But there is a new danger of cultural polarisation. While most individuals are becoming more open and collaborative, those who feel bound to defend the culture and childrearing of their parents culture are trying to become more closed, more sexist and more patriarchal. Here respect for more patriarchal traditional cultures may increase ghettoisation and undermining the more secular community values. The benefits of economic globalisation (more years of life, less years of disability) may be lost if the Western emphasis on individual not community continues. THE SUSTAINABLE OPEN SOCIETY:  THE SUSTAINABLE OPEN SOCIETY Cultural Evolution: The Virtual Reality of the Parent becomes the Reality of the Child:  Cultural Evolution: The Virtual Reality of the Parent becomes the Reality of the Child Personal values, aspirations, culture and the definition of reality are absorbed in infancy. Thus Disneyland is fake to grandparents, reality to parents and obsolete to the children brought up on virtual reality and computer games To Abraham’s parents, sacrificial blood and flesh had to be real. Abraham’s legacy was to recognise the humanity of “virtual reality” - using animal sacrifice to simulate infant sacrifice. His descendents’ legacy was further virtuality, using wine to simulate blood and bread to simulate flesh. Perhaps this generation can draw inspiration from Abraham and switch from the unsustainable material and energy extravagance of Disneyland theme park to sustainable post-materialist lifestyles made up of: Immaterial Experiences – neighbourhood (walking distance of home) plus multimodal augmented reality (all senses, all activities, combining virtual and real, achieving far more with far less) Collaborative Relationships – avoiding the inefficiency and unsustainability of war – competition replaces conflict, global football replaces global war The Child’s Virtual Extended Family, VEF:  The Child’s Virtual Extended Family, VEF The western nuclear family is an incomplete foundation for Helping Mode child-rearing. The “Virtual Extended Family” is a proposed robust framework for achieving Helping Mode childrearing regardless of the particular circumstances and culture of the family. It includes technology-based alternatives for absent members of an ideal extended family The VEF includes the attachment advantages of the traditional extended family but avoids the abuse and narrowness of closed patriarchal tribal families. The VEF has to include protection from virtual reality sexual and physical abuse, from unexpected side-effects of unproven technologies and from commercial and religious pressures, e.g. ADHD from TV, addictive food, drugs, tobacco, demonisation of other religions, corporal punishment, abuse by figures in authority. Current Status: Enhancing the Fragmented Family:  Current Status: Enhancing the Fragmented Family The fragmented family of today, perhaps only mother and one child, is already acquiring technology assisted and technology based alternatives for members of the extended family Multimedia awareness of remote members of family – mobile video, etc. Television substitutes for storytelling by missing members of the family Computer gaming is an exceptionally social activity for children Virtual pets develop social and caring skills in city children Robot pets, e.g. Paro, the furry robot seal, craved by the elderly Early pre-school replaces the extended family peer group of other infants Precursors are US Head Start and UK SureStart programmes, etc. There is steady progress towards consensus values but there is a danger of adopting inadequately researched quick fixes, ones that have rebound effects in later life, e.g. fast food for kids can be liberating for adults, but can be lethal for the kids decades later Toys “rn’t” Us:  Toys “rn’t” Us Toys are rapidly becoming more collaborative and more interactive. They will soon be able to help the child’s mind develop helping mode post-materialist lifestyles. Future toys will be more and more lifelike, blurring the boundary between toy and networked computer game and continuing to provide support and pleasure throughout life. It is essential that intelligent dolls act out a Helping Mode culture because, in a fragmenting family with few peers or adults, children will increasingly learn how to socialise from such toys. Baby talk and bending down are rather limited ways for an adult to adapt to the developing mind of an infant but they are all that tribal societies could offer. Our predecessors had to make the best of them. The new toys can be scaled and programmed to be an optimum match to the child's capabilities at every stage in their lives. Pets “rn’t” Us either. They satisfy some of the needs of people brought up in earlier childrearing modes and they do prolong the life of their adult owners, but they can reduce their owners rapport with other people and need for society. Like many psychiatric drugs they hide rather than solve the underlying problem THE SOLUTION: SOCIAL SIMULATION + IMMATERIALISATION:  THE SOLUTION: SOCIAL SIMULATION + IMMATERIALISATION Social Simulation Research:  Social Simulation Research Civilization rapidly descends into anarchy when people feel crowded. The classic examples are Germany and Japan growing beyond their limits when there were no more countries left to colonise. Cyberterritory is unlimited, as demonstrated by second life and other Massive Multiplayer On-line Role Playing Games (MMORPG). Can we turn this virtue of virtuality into a psychological reality?   Clearly, in Maslow’s pyramid of human needs this cannot be done at the basic level food and shelter, even though global warming is already shrinking our food and space cages. Further up the pyramid there is enormous scope for replacing direct social and physical contact with others with long distance equivalents. They are usually different in nature and can often be better –there are already many situations where telephone and e-mail are preferable to face to face discussion. Often this is because most cultures and belief systems are designed to prevent people getting too close both physically and emotionally. Often this is because the belief systems have been imposed by the old with the intention of holding on to their power for as long as possible. However the side effects include the development of unnecessary level of aggression during childhood development and unnecessary levels of sexual frustration later. Both of which lead to, amongst many other things, the readiness of the youth to sacrifice themselves for the sake of the tribe nation or religion. However this very stable formula for social cohesion and control is now being undermined by horizontal transmission of culture within an age group, as opposed to the vertical transmission from grandparents and parents down to children….. Social Simulation Research, continued:  Social Simulation Research, continued …. Thus technology and the risk of apocalypse are moving too fast for the wisdom of the ancestors to ensure the happiness of the descendents.   However there are enormous dangers in horizontal transmission of culture. It has not been tested over several generations and on a small scale before it goes global. Thus there are concerns that children are losing the ability to integrate mind and body because of the technical limitations of the particular virtual technologies that they are experiencing today. Already some games have been shown to encourage an aggressive mind set (but so does current gun culture! This culture emerged in the American Wild West and is now exported to every part of the world they wish to control). Unfortunately homo sapiens sapiens is so flexible that most cultural mistakes do not show up until late in life.   In a world where habitable environments will soon be contracting the potential benefits of virtualisation and immaterialisation are obvious. However the dangers of rapid culture change are equally great. The only way out is to proceed by accelerated trial and error, not the small scale multi-generational trial such as that of early Christianity or even the small fraction of the pre first world war world that was the first to to explore industrialisation. We have to find the right mix of social experiments and social simulations that will enable us to raise and synchronise community values in years rather than generations. Moore’s Law: Sustainability Without Conflict:  Moore’s Law: Sustainability Without Conflict Current material and energy consumption trends are unsustainable and, unbelievably, the IT world have been hiding the solution for 40 years: Moore’s Law – computer power doubles every 18 months. Or, in sustainability jargon, resources needed for a given amount of computer power halve every 18 months The 2% per annum drop in consumption of resources for material-intensive products such as cars is too small to compensate for the increasing numbers who can afford a car because the price is dropping. But the 20% per annum drop typical of computer based products and services is more than enough to reverse the destruction of non-renewable resources and thus achieve global sustainability Immaterialisation is the process of switching from a material-intensive satisfier of a human needs to a computer-based alternative. Before the “Immaterialisation Switch” products and services follow the 2% curve After the switch they follow the 20% “dematerialisation” curve The Immaterialisation Switch, The Hope:  The Immaterialisation Switch, The Hope From Material-Intensive Satisfier to IT-Intensive Satisfier Material Intensity Time Dematerialisation 2% per annum Dematerialisation 20% per annum The Switch e.g. Car Transport to Meetings Telephone and Internet Discussions e.g. film camera digital camera The Immaterialsation Switch, The Reality:  The Immaterialsation Switch, The Reality If only life were that simple! By reducing prices, improving quality of life and thus stimulating demand, most immaterialisation switches have increased overall material and energy consumption. These interactions are complex and need to be comprehensively modelled before promoting immaterialisation as a universal panacea for global warming. Immaterialisation will only work if the reduction in material and energy resources is combined with changing values, e.g. judging that quality of life increases as the burden of time wasted in travel is reduced. At the moment most people associate travel with success, status and a high quality of life. And many examples of immaterialisation are designed to make the travel experience enjoyable in itself, e.g. providing an alternative to the large living room television in the small screen in the back of the airline seat in front of you. Raising and Synchronising Community Values:  Raising and Synchronising Community Values Double generation attachment between grandchildren and grandparents is a 30 to 100 years cycle which tends to get averaged out and lost in the wider community. However, community attachment processes take place between children of a particular age cohort and a small number of iconic leaders and heroes, some real, some virtual. Moods become synchronised in a 52 year depression-elation cycle - the Kondratieff Cycle of economists, or the Group-Fantasy Cycle of psychohistorians. The universality of this double-generation cycle is not yet well recognised (or clearly proven!). By assimilating more and more culture and values from new media rather than from double generation transmission from community elders it may become possible to escape this 52 year depression-elation cycle of economics / war-hedonism cycle of psychohistory? By relying on digital technologies which halve in cost every 18 months it may be possible for helping mode child-rearing to reach the future peak global population of 9 billion in time to achieve long term global sustainability. Urgent Problem: How to prove that technology supported helping mode has no hidden long term flaws - without requiring large scale longitudinal studies that have to take a lifetime? Long Term Problem: How to slay the oxymoron “Hedonism does not make you happy” How to Simulate and Validate Sustainable Global Network Society:  How to Simulate and Validate Sustainable Global Network Society Physical scientists can experiment. Historical scientists can observe. But social scientists have to wait a lifetime to understand a culture change. The network society has to be rolled out to the whole planet within a generation to avoid global warring or global warming apocalypses. But if the planners get it wrong, there might be no one left after 80 years! It will be necessary to simulate future society, perhaps by including real people as part of the simulations and presenting them as networked computer games. Affective computing (computers with emotions and feelings) is addressing the very real complaint “Why can’t a computer be more like a (wo)man”. In fact, as computers behave more human so they become less visible. Few realise the extent to which we interact socially with computers and the extent to which this technology is already changing the culture of the the young. Because few politicians and leaders of society recognise this, culture change is now very much in the hands of commercial forces. Many of the changes could be very damaging, e.g. internet paedophilia and sadism From Networked Computer Game to Social Simulation:  From Networked Computer Game to Social Simulation Artificial Intelligence and Artificial Life techniques are becoming as effective at modelling and simulating social groups as they are in simulating the “society of mind” inside one head. The computer game SimCity is already being used to teach social responsibility in the community. Computer games such as Creatures and “The Sims” indirectly teach genetic and cultural transmission and the attachment processes of childhood. Children are learning about mentalization (theory of mind) in virtual reality where they can experiment safely. As with any games or toys, the more convincing the fantasy the more it fills its role in allowing learning and rehearsal of adult life. By building up from simple games for babies in year 1 to more advanced network activities that mix the real and the virtual for teenagers 15 years later, increasingly sophisticated collaboration services can be tested and evaluated as they develop over a realistic period of 15 years. As these games mature so they become an integral part of the collaboration society Social advance funded by an adequately regulated enormous networked games market! From Attachment Theory to Social Interaction Modelling:  From Attachment Theory to Social Interaction Modelling from Mother from Siblings from Secondary Carers – Father, etc from Peers 0% Age 100% We need good models of the dynamics of human relationships over the whole lifecycle, not just the mother-child attachment from other Adults Influences on Child Development Attachment Theory is confined to this corner An Example: The Cycle of Collaboration:  An Example: The Cycle of Collaboration This model of social interaction has been used to explore how new digital services can be interleaved with existing social activities. Avoids problems such as: introducing video telephones too early failing to recognise the need for texting The six stages are designed round the working day but are fractal in that they are applicable at any level from the process of formulating and uttering a single sentence to our journey through life, from exploring child via collaborating adult to persuading elder. See The Cycle of Collaboration Home Theatre Table Room Landscape Map Or to put it more poetically::  Or to put it more poetically: . All the world's a Cycle of Collaboration, And all the men and women just collaborators: They have their exits and their entrances; And one man in his time plays many parts, His acts being seven stages. At first the infant, Mewling and puking nursed in the Home. And then the whining school-boy, with his Map And shining morning face, creeping like snail Unwillingly to school. And then the lover, Sighing like furnace, from the social Landscape Made to his mistress' Doorway. Then a soldier, Full of strange oaths and bearded like the pard, Jealous in honour, sudden and quick in quarrel, Seeking the bubble reputation Even cross the meeting Table. And then the justice, In fair round belly with good capon lined, With eyes severe and beard of formal cut, Full of wise saws and modern instances; In the Theatre of his court. The sixth age shifts Into the lean and slipper'd Home-stead, With spectacles on nose and pouch on side, His youthful hose, well saved, a world too wide For his shrunk shank; and his big manly voice, Turning again toward childish treble, pipes And whistles in his sound. Last scene of all, That ends this strange eventful history, Is second childishness and mere oblivion, Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans collaboration. Immaterialisation is Already Here :  Immaterialisation is Already Here Readership of top five magazines, UK Car and DIY magazines Immaterial satisfiers 1980 21% 6% 2000 0% 47% Thus material-intensive satisfiers such as cars and DIY are already being replaced by more direct, more immaterial body-mind experiences. US sales of SUVs dropped by 25% in 2004, alas because they saw the gas queues, not the light! When it comes to culture change, commercial interests and the neophilia of the young may well be ahead of the policy makers and the professional middle classes? They are definitely ahead of the moralists! (One soft porn magazine) (Two soft porn magazines Three TV programme guides) - from Material-Intensive “Car-Fetish” to media based Immaterial Experience CONCLUSIONS:  CONCLUSIONS A Credible Route to the Sustainable Global Network Society?:  A Credible Route to the Sustainable Global Network Society? The third world is bypassing the dark satanic mills of our Victorian past. The West has become a 500 million people prototype that had to include the unjust and damaging intermediate stages of the Industrial revolution and the Information Society.. World Values Survey, etc. Societies with the greatest sum total happiness have a modest difference between rich and poor (Richard Wilkinson), but the West is heading in the wrong direction - fast Inequality between rich and poor people and between first world and third world countries has doubled over the last 30 years The West may have left it too late to include the third world as partners. The breaking point may be intelligent outsiders on the boundary between a westernised playboy ruling class and the traditional cultures of third world countries. Many terrorists have mixed extended families that cross this boundary. But, by leapfrogging the West and liberalising millennia old extended family culture: India and China may well reach the Network Society first. Globalisation: Length of Life & Quality of Life :  Globalisation: Length of Life & Quality of Life Average lifetime increases and fraction of life spent disabled decreases as prosperity increases: 7.5 out of 45 years in Sub-Saharan Africa, 15% of lifetime 6 disabled years out of 77 in the West, 8% of lifetime From “Global Burden of Disease”, Murray and Lopez 1997 Life Expectancy Relationship between Life Expectancy and percentage of life spent with disability As experience of disability reduces so the dissociation needed to make it bearable atrophies and empathy towards others strengthens. But the remaining disabilities become even more difficult to bear. This triggers a “runaway morality” in which an ever-increasing value is placed on preserving life and avoiding disability. From Closed to Open Society:  From Closed to Open Society UK “leads” with one CCTV surveillance camera for every 15 people, 4 million out of 25 million cameras worldwide (2002). What is safe in a liberal democracy can be very dangerous in a tyranny e.g. if homosexuality is seen as a lifestyle choice (as it is with other animals), regardless of environmental or genetic predisposition, then CCTV is not a blackmail threat to the gay community. In an Open Society whistle blowers ensure that power is not abused. Recent digital photos of abuse of Iraqi prisoners indicate that the US may be more of an open society and the UK les of one than is generally assumed! Smart cameras are already recognising unusual behaviours better than people, e.g. intoxicated behaviour before getting into a car, suicidal behaviour on a platform, The Global Network is the catalyst towards higher quality of life Because privacy is an opportunity for abuse Because openness is an opportunity cultural tolerance A Supportive Environment in an Open Society!:  A Supportive Environment in an Open Society! Cultural neutrality? Microsoft Word does not argue but does phone the Samaritans Conclusion:  Conclusion Over the last 50 years technical innovation has shifted from the material and energy based technologies that have exacerbated our aggressive and competitive instinct to the digital technologies that can amplify our democratic, collaborative and social instincts and reverse our escalating demand for non-renewable resources. Digital technologies may now speed the spread of helping mode childrearing fast enough to achieve global sustainability and a high quality of life for all by drawing on our growing understanding of the evolution of the human mind, by exploiting the collaborative potential of new “immaterial” digital technologies, by “what if” simulation of proposed collaborative social structures to ensure that they do not have unfortunate side effects The “Sustainable Global Network Society” To continue please turn to my web site: My Background:  My Background I am not a professional psychohistorian! 40 years designing collaboration products and services; telephone exchanges, networked personal organiser, multimedia hard-hat, etc 15 years applying to Internet based collaboration technologies in industry, - the 9-5 culture of the business world 10 years exploring how IT and Communications Technologies could help achieve global sustainability – little progress because projects were confined to the secular/rational 9-5 world, and ignored fear, hatred and childhood 6 years at the Clinic for Dissociative Studies, London an engineer’s experimental and creative approach to understanding the scope and limits of human mind and society and the 24 hours - 80 year culture of real life: fear, hatred, childhood - and self-fulfilment. Outline References:  Outline References Robin Dunbar – Human and prehuman nature, Social Group Sizes Lloyd deMause – History of Childhood and the emotional life of nations Christopher Boehm – Infanticidal tribal society Andrew Oswald, Richard Wilkinson – Economics and sociology of happiness Ronald Inglehart – World Values Survey, Modernization and Postmodernization Valerie Sinason – Attachment, Trauma and Multiplicity Richard Benthall – Madness Explained Duncan Watts – 6 Degrees of Separation and the New Science of Networks Clive Bromhall – Neoteny Régis Debray – Wheel, Writing and Universal God Steven LeBlanc – Constant Battles, Why we Fight Lawrence Keeley – War Before Civilisation, the Myth of the Peaceful Savage Ritual Abuse Research in the UK, 1:  Ritual Abuse Research in the UK, 1 : A study of court evidence was used by government to claim that Satanic Abuse did not exist in the UK. This was achieved by defining “Satanic Abuse” to be unsubstantiated abuse, “Ritual Abuse” to be abuse proven in court. This denial of Satanic abuse was helped by the fact that ritual material is removed from court evidence to avoid traum

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