Cascao London Resisting Hegemony Nile Basin

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Information about Cascao London Resisting Hegemony Nile Basin
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Published on December 2, 2008

Author: ana.cascao

Source: slideshare.net

RESISTING HEGEMONY ON THE NILE III Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 12-13 May 2007 Ana Elisa Cascão King’s College of London

ABSTRACT MODEL OF HEGEMONY AND COUNTER-HEGEMONY

EGYPTIAN STATUS QUO ? HISTORIC, ACQUIRED, AND ESTABLISHED RIGHTS 55.5 bcm 1959 Agreement No infrastructures upstream Extreme Nile-dependence Rule of Experts BEYOND THE STATUS QUO More water More facts-on-the-ground

HISTORIC, ACQUIRED, AND ESTABLISHED RIGHTS

55.5 bcm

1959 Agreement

No infrastructures upstream

Extreme Nile-dependence

Rule of Experts

BEYOND THE STATUS QUO

More water

More facts-on-the-ground

MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM . . . Consenting? or Contesting?

Consenting?

or

Contesting?

SCARCITY OF POWER? Civil wars Political instability Lack of investment Lack of international backup Knowledge gap Lack of expertise Weak negotiation tools + Different priorities Dogmatic claims Veiled Consent! ?

Civil wars

Political instability

Lack of investment

Lack of international backup

Knowledge gap

Lack of expertise

Weak negotiation tools

+

Different priorities

Dogmatic claims

SUDAN – Between Hegemony and Resistance PAST Ally in the hegemonic game PRESENT Official consent, unofficial contestation

PAST

Ally in the hegemonic game

PRESENT

Official consent,

unofficial contestation

SUDAN – Between Hegemony and Resistance FUTURE New oil-economy New partners & investors  New ambitions? New hegemon?

FUTURE

New oil-economy

New partners & investors



New ambitions?

New hegemon?

ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest and Resistance PAST Nile as a mere diplomatic weapon PRESENT Official discourse Nile = Development

PAST

Nile as a mere diplomatic weapon

PRESENT

Official discourse

Nile = Development

ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest and Resistance FUTURE Systematic use of the Nile waters?  Irrigation? Hydropower?

FUTURE

Systematic use of the Nile waters?



Irrigation?

Hydropower?

MECHANISMS OF RESISTANCE 1 – Violent 2 – Functional 3 – Cooperative 4 – Liberating Military acts Support to opposition groups Internal violence Bellicose threats Reactive Diplomacy Pro-Active Diplomacy Mobilise “alternative” funding Unilateral infrastructures Cooperation with “internal” parties ( excluding the hegemon) Cooperation with “internal” parties ( including the hegemon) Cooperation involving with “external” parties Knowledge/Expertise construction Discourse Alternatives Coalitions with Progressive Forces

1 – Violent

2 – Functional

3 – Cooperative

4 – Liberating

Military acts

Support to opposition groups

Internal violence

Bellicose threats

Reactive Diplomacy

Pro-Active Diplomacy

Mobilise “alternative” funding

Unilateral infrastructures

Cooperation with “internal” parties ( excluding the hegemon)

Cooperation with “internal” parties ( including the hegemon)

Cooperation involving with “external” parties

Knowledge/Expertise construction

Discourse Alternatives

Coalitions with Progressive Forces

NILE BASIN INITIATIVE? Cooperation as DOMINATION? Agenda setting Legal issues Business-as-usual State-nation based Cooperation as BATTLEGROUND? Creation of “new” knowledge Reduce expertise gap Opportunities for new investment/infrastructures Potetial for Basin as the unity for action

Cooperation as DOMINATION?

Agenda setting

Legal issues

Business-as-usual

State-nation based

Cooperation as BATTLEGROUND?

Creation of “new” knowledge

Reduce expertise gap

Opportunities for new investment/infrastructures

Potetial for Basin as the unity for action

CONCLUSION Some Resistance No Counter-Hegemony Riparians will not give up of national-based plans Hegemony in the Basin directly related with Global and Regional Politics

Some Resistance

No Counter-Hegemony

Riparians will not give up of national-based plans

Hegemony in the Basin directly related with Global and Regional Politics

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