Cal Mrtg Watkins

63 %
38 %
Information about Cal Mrtg Watkins
Business-Finance

Published on April 10, 2008

Author: CoolDude26

Source: authorstream.com

Slide1:  California, Real Estate, And Economic Activity Bill Watkins July, 2006 Outline:  Outline United States California Real Estate Principles of Economics:  Principles of Economics Slide4:  Ry Cooder says: “All the money in the world is spent on feeling good.” “You can’t always get what you want.”:  “You can’t always get what you want.” Mick Says: “The future is uncertain, and death is always near.”:  “The future is uncertain, and death is always near.” Jim Morrison Says: Slide7:  “Behind every silver lining, there is a dark cloud.” Ry Cooder says: Slide8:  David Ricardo 1772 - 1823 The Theory of Comparative Advantage More trade is better Who cares about a trade deficit United States’ Economic Topics:  United States’ Economic Topics Slide10:  World GDP Growth 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 “The United States’ economy has shown remarkable resiliency. It is all about Productivity, International Trade, Wealth, and a Service Economy.”:  “The United States’ economy has shown remarkable resiliency. It is all about Productivity, International Trade, Wealth, and a Service Economy.” Bill Says: Slide12:  Real Consumption per Capita United States 2002 $000s Slide13:  United States Unemployment Rate The Unemployment Rate has been below 4.6 % only 10.5 % of the time since June 1969. How High Are Home Prices?:  How High Are Home Prices? Slide16:  Existing Single-Family Median Home Prices divided by U.S. Wealth 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Index 1968=100 How High Are Oil Prices?:  How High Are Oil Prices? Slide18:  Oil Prices in Relation to Wealth 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Index: 1966=100 “Homes are cheap and so is oil.”:  “Homes are cheap and so is oil.” Bill Says: What About Interest Rates?:  What About Interest Rates? Slide21:  Real 10-Year Bond Rate percent What About Inflation?:  What About Inflation? Fed Tightening Inverted Yield Curves and Recessions:  Fed Tightening Inverted Yield Curves and Recessions Slide25:  February 2006 4.54% 4.69% 4.68% 4.67% 4.64% 4.57% 4.56% 4.57% 4.73% 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 2-yr 3-yr 5-yr 7-yr 10-yr 20-yr United States Treasury Bond Yield Curve “If the Fed’s overly-aggressive interest rate increases cause a recession, it will probably be in 2007, and it will be mild.”:  “If the Fed’s overly-aggressive interest rate increases cause a recession, it will probably be in 2007, and it will be mild.” Bill Says: There are Other Risks:  There are Other Risks Geopolitical Risks Oil Supply Interruptions What About the Federal Deficit?:  What About the Federal Deficit? What about consumer debt?:  What about consumer debt? Slide30:  Delinquency Rates All Banks, SA 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 percent C&I Loans Credit Cards Is Job Growth The Proper Metric?:  Is Job Growth The Proper Metric? Slide32:  Real Gross Domestic Product Growth United States Slide33:  Unemployment Rate United States Slide34:  Real Gross Domestic Product per Capita Growth United States 2.8% 1.3% 2.5% 3.3% 3.0% 3.3% 2.6% -0.3% 0.6% 1.7% 3.0% 2.3% 1.9% 1.4% 1.7% 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Slide35:  Real Consumption Expenditures per Capita Growth United States Slide36:  If Things Are So Good, Why Do So Many Feel So Bad? “Part of it is the media.”:  “Part of it is the media.” Bill Says: Uncertainty Is The Problem ::  Uncertainty Is The Problem : War Security Job Tenure Competition New Competitors New Technology Pace of Change Lack of Control Tomorrow’s Winners:  Tomorrow’s Winners Updated Human Capital Creative Risk Taking Houses and Bubbles:  Houses and Bubbles Slide41:  Will home prices collapse and cause the end of the civilization? Slide42:  Bill Says: “They mean that house prices will fall, and that fall will cause a decline in consumer spending.” Slide43:  Chuck Maxey* Says: “Not to worry. American society is superficial and materialistic.” “Consumers will continue to spend.” *Dean, CLU School of Business Slide44:  Ten Most Affordable Communities in America National Association of Home Builders Slide45:  Housing Affordability United States 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 California’s Economy:  California’s Economy Slide47:  Keith Says: “Its only rock and roll.” Slide49:  Unemployment Rate California Slide50:  Real Gross State Product Growth California Slide51:  Real Gross State Product per Capita Growth California Slide52:  Real Retail Sales per Capita Growth California California Impact of a FED-Induced Recession:  California Impact of a FED-Induced Recession Less immediate than the past recession Gradual Milder than the past recession Strong home prices California Has Some Issues::  California Has Some Issues: High Costs High Uncertainty Dysfunctional State Government Terrible System of Financing Local Government California’s Assets Fit Today’s World::  California’s Assets Fit Today’s World: Climate Population Higher Education System Location Two Californias:  Two Californias Slide57:  Coastal California Slide58:  Ten Least Rapidly Growing Counties in California (2000-2004) Slide59:  Everywhere Else Slide60:  Ten Most Rapidly Growing Counties in California (2000-2004) Four Major Migrations:  Four Major Migrations Baby Boomers Generation X Hispanic Tradable Goods Producers Demographic Trends:  Demographic Trends Growing Growing Old Growing Rich Slide63:  Change in Age Distributions for California and U.S. 2000 to 2005 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0-4 5-9 10- 14 15- 17 18- 20 21- 24 25- 34 35- 44 45- 49 50- 54 55- 59 60- 64 65- 74 75- up percent California United States Slide64:  Age Change Comparison: South Coast vs United States Slide65:  California versus U.S. Income Distribution Change 2000 to 2005 Slide66:  Income Distribution Change: South Coast vs United States South Coast United States (2000 – 2005) Slide67:  California Population Slide68:  California Population Growth (People) Slide69:  California Population Growth Rate Real Estate Topics:  Real Estate Topics Slide71:  Ten Least Affordable Communities in America National Association of Home Builders Slide72:  Nominal Median Home Price California Slide73:  Real Median Home Price Growth California Slide74:  Are California Home Prices In a Bubble? Why Do Home Prices Keep Going Up?:  Why Do Home Prices Keep Going Up? Coastal California is not a local market Demographics Wealth accumulation Interest rates Taxes Demand Side Why Do Home Prices Keep Going Up?:  Why Do Home Prices Keep Going Up? Limited numbers Delay Uncertainty Fees Property rights Supply Side Slide77:  Housing Unit Permits per 1,000 people California Slide89:  Thank you. Visit us at www.ucsb-efp.com

Add a comment

Related presentations

Related pages

YouTube

Search or upload videos. Popular on YouTube: Music, Sports, Gaming, Movies, TV Shows, News, Spotlight. Browse Channels.
Read more

Linux takes to the sky | ZDNet

Linux takes to the sky. At a time when Microsoft is warning of the perils of open source code, Korean Air undertakes one of the biggest mission-critical ...
Read more

Caliber Home Loans

Caliber Home Loans, Inc. is a full-service national mortgage lender and agency direct seller/servicer. Caliber originates loans through various channels ...
Read more

Estate Agents Sacramento | Local Estate Agent Sacramento ...

This is the city listings section for all local Sacramento estate agents and real estate agencies in ... Aberg & Watkins, Realtors ... Cal Cost Realty Cal ...
Read more

Linux Takes on Big Jobs - Technology News, Tech Product ...

Linux Takes on Big Jobs . ... About 10 of those downloads are running what he would call a mission-critical system "where the ... said Paul Watkins, ...
Read more

Lynn Stewart at Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. Contact ...

Lynn Stewart at Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. Contact Details ... Allied Home Mrtg Capitl Corp. Lynn. Stewart. ... Watkins. Category Manager. Ben. Ben.
Read more

All Property Types in All Cities - Tim Fiebig Real Estate

Call Us : (925) 621-8000 Call ... Did you know if you Register you have access to free search tools including the ability to save listings and property ...
Read more

Mortgage Rates | Homes.com

Homes.com, ForRent.com, Dominion Enterprises, Property Managers, Owners, Agents, and paid advertisers are not responsible for typographical errors.
Read more

New to CCNA Sec... - 9965 - The Cisco Learning Network

Hello everyone, I have just started preparation for CCNA security, soon I will complete my CCNA R&S. I have Cisco's Official Exam Guide of Michael Watkins ...
Read more

Don Stovner | LinkedIn

Don Stovner. Senior Network Engineer. Location Las Vegas, Nevada Area Industry Information Technology and Services
Read more