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Published on March 14, 2008

Author: Carolina

Source: authorstream.com

Supply Side Policy and Deregulation in the U.S.A.:  Supply Side Policy and Deregulation in the U.S.A. Professor Dr. Christopher Brown Outline:  Outline Principles of Supply Side Economics Why do we regulate private economic activity? “Old regime” economic regulation of the airline industry Airline deregulation: Assessing the outcome “Old regime” economic regulation of electric utilities. Electric utility deregulation: Assessing the outcome Slide3:  Supply Side economics is an alternative to the conventional “demand side” economics favored by Keynesians Principles of Supply Side Economics:  Principles of Supply Side Economics Growth of productivity, real income, and employment ultimately depends on risk-taking behavior by agents. Economic policy should incentivize risk-taking behavior—that is, investments in physical and human capital and the development and testing of innovative business models. Reducing marginal tax rates on income and capital gains can increase the after-tax rewards to risk-taking. Social regulation (regulations concerning, for example, workplace and product safety, environment, and equal opportunity) imposes high compliance costs on private firms and creates disincentives to risk-taking. Economic regulation (the direct regulation of industries or firms by regulatory agencies) does not allow for the development of industry structures that would serve the public more effectively. Slide5:  Tax Revenue (€) Marginal Tax Rate (MTR) 0 MTR: Tax rate applied to the last unit of income. MTR* R* MTR’ R’ Laffer Curve “Effort-releasing” effect of lower marginal tax rates increases the tax base—and thus tax revenues. Slide6:  Price Index 0 Real GDP AD AS1 AS2 ε1 ε2 AS: Aggregate Supply AD: Aggregate Demand Slide7:  We cannot always trust uncontrolled market forces to allocate economic resources in a socially efficient manner Examples: Externalities, imperfectly competitive market structures Slide8:  Standard Illustration of Natural Monopoly € Units per time 0 Long-run average cost Market demand Slide9:  The “natural monopoly” argument fits best for industries exhibiting economies of large scale distribution Examples: Water and sewer, gas, electric, cable television, local phone serve Slide10:  The tools of economic regulation include control of price, control of quantity, control or entry and exit, or control of other variables. Economics of the Airline Industry:  Economics of the Airline Industry High fixed cost Low (negligible) marginal cost of serving passengers “Load factors” are critical Long-haul economies Powerful unions of pilots and machinists Sophisticated systems of price discrimination or “yield management” Control of gates and take-off and landing rights at airports by large carriers blockades entry of new carriers at major airports (LAX, Chicago, Atlanta, for example). Slide12:  Passenger Miles (PMs) = Passengers  Miles Traveled $/PM PMs 0 Cost per passenger mile Flight profitability partly depends on: Number of passengers (load factor) Distance of flight Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB):  Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) 1938 Civil Aeronautics Act The Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) created to: (1) promote airline safety; (2) to insure the industry operates in an economically sound fashion; and (3) to allow for the adaptation of the airline system to the commercial, postal, and defense needs of the country. Slide14:  The CAB determined that its primary objective should be to insure that “economical” air service would be widely available. Airline Regulation under the CAB:  Airline Regulation under the CAB Fares set by a formula developed by the CAB that raised fares substantially above costs on medium and long haul trips and below costs for short haul trips. Carriers could not enter or exit specific routes. High profits earned on “prime” routes subsidized losses sustained on undesirable routes. Slide16:  Chicago Dallas Omaha Fargo High load factor, long distance Low load factor, short distance Deregulation:  Deregulation For an overview see Clifford Winston, "Economic Deregulation: Days of Reckoning for Microeconomists," Journal of Economic Literature, September 1993:1263-1289. The 1971-96 is called the "era of deregulation" because of the major deregulatory initiatives passed—e.g., the abolition of fixed brokerage fees by the SEC in 1975, the Motor Carrier Reform Act of 1980, and the Telecommunications Act of 1996. The Airline Deregulation Act of 1978:  The Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 Since 1982 entry has been granted on all interstate routes to carriers that are "fit, willing, and able." All restrictions on fares lifted in 1983. The CAB is defunct. Slide19:  Dallas Lubbock OK City Denver Col. Springs Laramie Hub and Spoke system Effects of the Hub and Spoke System:  Effects of the Hub and Spoke System Cheap fares on flights between hub airports (Dallas to Denver, Atlanta to Chicago, New York to LA). Expensive fares for service between (non-hub) cities linked to different hub airports. “Window of opportunity” for the “no frills” discount carriers such as Southwest Airlines, AirTran, and US West. Assessing Airline Deregulation:  Assessing Airline Deregulation Slide22:  Morrison and Winston estimate benefits (lower fares) from airline deregulation exceed $20 billion per year. Peltzman, S. and Winston, C., editors. Deregulation of Network Industries: What’s Next? (AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies, 2000), p. 2 Airline ticket pricing:  Airline ticket pricing Consider United Airlines Flight 815 from Chicago to LA on October 31, 19971 There were 27 different one-way fares, ranging from $1,248 for a first class ticket purchased the day of the flight to $87 for an advance purchase coach ticket. Some travelers cashed in frequent flier miles. Some qualified for senior citizen discounts. Some passengers traveled on restricted tickets that required Saturday stayovers. 1”So, How much did you pay for your ticket,” New York Times, April 12, 1998 Airline Bankruptcies (partial list):  Airline Bankruptcies (partial list) American Airlines United Airlines U.S. Air National Airlines Midway Airlines Pan American Airlines Trans World Airlines People’s Express Eastern Airlines Structure of the Electric Utility Industry:  Structure of the Electric Utility Industry Generation Distribution Transmission Features of “Old Style” Utility Regulation:  Features of “Old Style” Utility Regulation Vertically-integrated power companies enjoy regional monopolies but are subject to regulation by state commissions. State commissions use the “revenue requirement” model to establish electricity rates. Regulated utilities subject to minimum capacity requirements. Slide27:  Revenue Requirement Model RR is the “revenue requirement” RB is the rate base—an estimate of the value of owners’ investment in the regulated firm. r is the “allowed rate of return” to owners’ investment. E is expenses (fuel, wages, etc.) Slide28:  Electric deregulation is really about the vertical separation of the three stages of production—or the creation of a multi-market industry. Deregulation California Style:  Deregulation California Style Formerly integrated utility giants (Cal. Edison, Pacific Gas & Electric) retain distribution monopoly but required to sell off generating and transmission assets. Utility companies get $28 billion in “stranded costs” financed by a “competitive transition fee.” Distribution monopolists subject to rate regulation by California Public Service Commission Distribution companies must purchase power “spot” on the “power exchange”—no forward contracts allowed. Independent system operator (ISO) created to manage transmission. Generation transformed into a competitive industry Slide31:  Independent System Operator (ISO) Operates the transmission grid Power generators have access to the grid on equal terms. Subject to regulation by California Public Service Commission and FERC Slide32:  First year under new regime Average Retail Electricity Prices in California (cents per kilowatt hour) Source: California Energy Commission Slide33:                                                                                                              Slide34:  Energy “speculators” (several employed by Enron) took advantage of these unique aspects of electricity and “rigged” the wholesale market. Important aspects of electricity Inelastic demand Non-storable Capacity limits on transmission Slide35:  The End

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