Brief Prosperity Profile of Thunder Bay, Ontario

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Information about Brief Prosperity Profile of Thunder Bay, Ontario
Business & Mgmt

Published on February 5, 2009

Author: mpian

Source: slideshare.net

Description

A profile of Thunder Bay, Ontario and comparison with its peer regions across North America. Prepared by Ronnie Sanders and Patrick Adler of the Martin Prosperity Institute as part of TVOntario's AgendaCamp series on Ontario's changing economy.

A Brief Prosperity Profile of Thunder Bay, Ontario Ronnie Sanders and Patrick Adler Research Associates February 8, 2009

Outline / Approach 1. Present Benchmark Peers 2. Describe Selected Measures a. Some “Lagging” b. Some “Leading” 3. Get Your Thinking Where does Thunder Bay rank? 4. Discussion 2

Benchmark Peers 3

Peer Selection Battle Creek, MI • 14 peer states/ • Bloomington, IL provinces for • College Station, TX Ontario based on • Kelowna, BC population. • Mount Vernon, WA • Rocky Mount, NC 10 cities/regions • Sherbrooke, QC selected with • State College, PA populations • Trois-Rivieres, QC approximately the same as Thunder Bay. 4

Technology 5

Technology “A high technology base is both a necessary condition for and a result of a region having a strong creative economy. Being known as a quot;high-techquot; region helps to attract the creative workforce, which, in turn, generates new technologies making the region even more high-tech.”

Technology “Tech Pole” Index (based on Milken Institute) • – Share of total US/Canada “high technology” – Regional concentration of “high tech” among all industries Combination allows smaller, tech-intensive • regions to score well US & Canada, based on total employment • 7

Tech-Pole Index: Where does Thunder Bay rank? Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers) • Peer Average: 0.021 • Lowest peer score: 0.002 (Battle Creek, MI) • Highest peer score: 0.079 (State College, PA) • • Where does Thunder Bay rank? –Top 3? –Bottom 3? –Middle 5? 8

Tech-Pole Index: Thunder Bay “Middle 5” North American Tech Pole Index Toronto, ON and Peer Regions, 2006 State College, PA 0.079 Sherbrooke , QC 0.035 Kelowna, BC 0.030 Rocky Mount, NC 0.018 College Station, TX 0.018 Thunder Bay, ON 0.013 Trois-Rivières, QC 0.012 Bloomington, IL 0.008 Mount Vernon, WA 0.004 Dalton, GA 0.002 Battle Creek, MI 0.002 9

Talent 10

Talent “The concentration of people in the Creative and Super Creative Classes, has a stronger relationship with economic growth. Creative people don't just cluster where the jobs are. They cluster in places that are centers of creativity and also where they like to live. Places need a people climate -- or a creativity climate -- as well as a business climate.”

Talent “BA and above” • Percent of population 25 and older with a • bachelor’s (4-year) university degree or higher (masters, graduate, PhD) 12

Talent Index: Where does Thunder Bay rank? Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers) • Peer Average: 22.2% • Lowest peer score: 12.0% (Dalton, GA) • Highest peer score: 40.2% (State College, PA) • • Where does Thunder Bay rank? –Top 3? –Bottom 3? –Middle 5? 13

Talent Index: Thunder Bay “Bottom 3” Talent Index (Pop > 25, BA and above) Thunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006 State College, PA 40.2% Bloomington, IL 39.8% College Station, TX 31.2% Mount Vernon, WA 21.0% Battle Creek, MI 19.1% Sherbrooke , QC 18.1% Rocky Mount, NC 14.9% Trois-Rivières, QC 14.0% Thunder Bay, ON 13.0% Kelowna, BC 12.4% Dalton, GA 12.0% 14

Talent Now, a “Creative Economy” • – Innovation, Thinking, Creativity “Paid to think” • – Everyone has the potential to be creative Percent of workforce in the “Creative Class” • T = Technology and R&D Innovation A = Arts and Culture P = Professional and Managerial E = Educating and Training 15

Creative Class: Where does Thunder Bay rank? Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers) • Peer Average: 25.4% • Lowest peer score: 18.5% (Dalton, GA) • Highest peer score: 32.8% (Sherbrooke, QC) • • Where does Thunder Bay rank? –Top 3? –Bottom 3? –Middle 5? 16

Creative Class: Thunder Bay “Middle 5” Creative Class as % of Workforce Thunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006 Sherbrooke , QC 29.4% Battle Creek, MI 27.5% Bloomington, IL 27.1% Thunder Bay, ON 26.9% Trois-Rivières, QC 26.8% Kelowna, BC 25.7% College Station, TX 24.9% Mount Vernon, WA 23.6% Rocky Mount, NC 22.3% State College, PA 21.2% Dalton, GA 18.5% 17

Tolerance / Inclusiveness 18

Tolerance / Inclusiveness “Diversity has become a politically charged buzzword. To some it is an ideal and rallying cry, to others a Trojan-horse concept that has brought us affirmative action and other liberal abominations. Creative Class people use the word often, but not to press any political hot buttons. Diversity is simply something they value in all its manifestations.”

Tolerance / Inclusiveness Mosaic Index • Percent of population foreign born • Immigrants generate growth and are a sign or • regional “openness” 20

Mosaic Index: Where does Thunder Bay rank? Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers) • Peer Average: 8.1% • Lowest peer score: 2.2% (Trois-Rivieres, QC) • Highest peer score: 15.0% (Dalton, GA) • • Where does Thunder Bay rank? –Top 3? –Bottom 3? –Middle 5? 21

Mosaic Index: Thunder Bay “Middle 5” Mosaic Index (% Pop) Thunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006 Dalton, GA 15.0% Kelowna, BC 14.6% College Station, TX 10.9% Thunder Bay, ON 10.3% Mount Vernon, WA 10.1% State College, PA 6.9% Sherbrooke , QC 5.5% Bloomington, IL 4.7% Rocky Mount, NC 3.4% Battle Creek, MI 3.1% Trois-Rivières, QC 2.2% 22

Population Growth 23

Population Growth Percent growth/decline in total population • Between 2001 and 2006 • 24

Population Growth: Where does Thunder Bay rank? Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers) • Peer Average: 6.1% • Lowest peer score: 0.0% (Battle Creek, MI) • Highest peer score: 12.4% (Mount Vernon, WA) • • Where does Thunder Bay rank? –Top 3? –Bottom 3? –Middle 5? 25

3” Population Growth: Thunder Bay “Bottom Population Growth Thunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, (00-05) Mount Vernon, WA 12.4% Dalton, GA 12.0% Kelowna, BC 9.8% Bloomington, IL 7.2% College Station, TX 6.4% Sherbrooke , QC 6.3% State College, PA 3.8% Trois-Rivières, QC 2.9% Rocky Mount, NC 2.3% Thunder Bay, ON 0.8% Battle Creek, MI 0.0% 26

Discussion / Summary 27

For More Information Peer Peer Peer Provincial/State Summary Statistics Thunder Bay, ON Minimum Average Maximum Average 123,000 115,700 150,000 197,000 546,000 Total Population, 2006 $5,000 GDP (CAD millions) 2006 $5,000 $6,000 $9,000 $29,000 41.8 25.7 36.6 43.8 37.5 Median Age, 2006 Overall Cost of Living Index 102.8 92.5 104.3 131.4 101.5 Thunder Peer Peer Peer Peer Provincial/State Overall Performance Bay, ON Ranking Minimum Average Maximum Average Population Growth (00-05) 0.8% 10 0% 5.8% 12.4% 5.7% -3.4% 10 -3.6% 4.8% 19.9% 9.3% Job Growth (00-05) GDP per capita, 2006 $43,000 6 $35,500 $45,000 $58,200 $45,000 Change in Average Wage (00-05) -2.4% 8 -11.2% -2.2% 3.7% 0.1% Creativity Index 0.46 5 0.24 0.44 0.66 N/A Thunder Peer Peer Peer Peer Provincial/State Technology Bay, ON Ranking Minimum Average Maximum Average Total Patents, 2005 2 11 2 18 42 517 Patents per 10,000, 2005 0.16 10 0.14 1.17 2.98 2.46 Patent Growth, Short Term (00-05) -3.3% 10 -4.5% 10.8% 56.7% -0.5% North American High Tech LQ, 2006 0.51 6 0.22 0.58 1.54 0.63 North American Tech Pole Index 0.013 6 0.002 0.020 0.079 0.189 Thunder Peer Peer Peer Peer Provincial/State Talent Bay, ON Ranking Minimum Average Maximum Average Creative Class as % of Workforce, 2006 26.9% 4 18.5% 24.9% 29.4% 26.1% Super Creative Core as % of Workforce, 2006 14.7% 5 5.6% 11.9% 16.3% 11.0% Pop > 25, Above High School below BA, 2006 58.2% N/A 51.7% 58.2% 65.5% 59.0% Talent Index (Pop > 25, BA and above), 2006 13.0% 9 12.0% 21.4% 40.2% 21.7% Pop > 25, Graduate and/or Professional Degree, 2006 3.5% 9 3.4% 7.8% 20.5% 7.5% Brain Drain/Gain Index, 2006 0.63 6 0.00 0.69 1.28 N/A Thunder Peer Peer Peer Peer Provincial/State Tolerance Bay, ON Ranking Minimum Average Maximum Average Visible Minorities (% Pop), 2006 2.7% 5 0.0% 5.2% 28.1% 11.1% Mosaic Index (% Pop), 2006 10.3% 4 2.2% 7.9% 15.0% 7.9% Gay and Lesbian Index, 2006 0.77 5 0.64 0.79 1.03 0.81 Bohemian Index, 2006 0.67 3 0.16 0.46 1.05 0.69 0.76 0.92 N/A Integration Index, 2006 0.83 6 1 Thunder Peer Peer Peer Peer Territorial Assets Bay, ON Ranking Minimum Average Maximum Social and Cultural Assets Arts and Cultural Establishments per 10,000, 2006 1.95 3 0.22 1.36 2.22 Resturants and Bars per 1,000, 2006 1.83 7 1.46 1.90 2.40 Student/Teacher Ratio, 2006 14.50 4 13.58 15.83 22.17 Doctor's per 1,000, 2006 0.81 5 0.00 1.13 3.42 Civic Assets Federal Voter Turnout (%), 2004/2006 62% 5 40% 59% 66% Voilent and Property Crime per Capita, 2006 0.09 10 0.02 0.06 0.12 Housing and Transportation Assets Population Density (KM2), 2006 48 9 25.34 71.67 160.76 Median Housing Value to Income Ratio, 2005 2.42 1 2.42 3.51 7.14 28 Drivers per Other Modes, 2006 9.77 3 4.84 28.69 169.98

For More Information • Richard Florida’s books – “The Rise of the Creative Class” – “The Flight of the Creative Class” – “Who’s Your City?” • martinprosperity.org • creativeclass.com 29

Thank You Ronnie Sanders Ronnie.Sanders@rotman.utoronto.ca Patrick Adler Patrick.Adler@rotman.utoronto.ca

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