Bo agriculture restructuring (ciat meeting 20-feb2014-hn)

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Information about Bo agriculture restructuring (ciat meeting 20-feb2014-hn)

Published on March 6, 2014

Author: CIAT

Source: slideshare.net

PRIORITIES FOR VIETNAM AGRICULTURE – SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES WITH THE REGION Nguyen Van Bo, VAAS Planning Meeting for CIAT Asia Hanoi, 20 February 2014

GENERAL INFORMATION ON VN AGRICULTURE COMPARED WITH SELECTED ASEAN COUNTRIES

VIET NAM AND ASEAN, 2013 (1) Country Indonesia Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Laos Cambodia Area Populat. Agr. Irrigated 1000ha millions land,% 1000ha 181,157 65,351 51,089 32,866 31,007 29,817 23,080 17,652 246.9 30.1 52.8 19.2 66.8 41.2 29.2 24.0 88.8 (3) 35.0 (2) 96.7 40.6 6.6 10.3 14.9 32.0 Source: World Factbook (www.cia.gov) 6,722 2,250 6,415 365 4,600 1,525 300 285

VIET NAM AND ASEAN, 2013 (2) Country Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Laos GDP US Bill. 878.2 366.0 303.5 250.2 141.7 (5) 14.1 9.3 GDP/cap USD Agr.value % GDP 3,557 14.0 5,480 12.0 10,381 11.0 2,587 12.0 1,596 (5) 22.0 (5) 946 36.0 1,399 75.1 Source: World Factbook (www.cia.gov)

Trade and FDI, Millions USSD Country Total Trade. FDI Singapore 775,153 63,997 Thailand 458,904 7,778 Malaysia 415,722 12,001 Indonesia 380,932 19,242 Vietnam 199,852 7,430 Philippines 111,752 1,262 Myanmar 14,925 - Brunei 14,822 1,208 Cambodia 12,844 892 3,956 301 2,045,731 114,111 Laos ASEAN Source: Richard Silberglitt. Symposium on Integrated Foresight for Sustainable Economic Development and Eco-Resilience in ASEAN Countries. Thailand, 1– 2 October 2013

Security index score (1-5) Country Food Water Energy Singapore 4.0 3.4 4.5 Brunei 3.5 3.0 4.0 Malaysia 3.2 3.4 4.0 Thailand 3.0 2.2 4.0 Vietnam 2.4 1.8 1.5 Indonesia 2.3 2.6 2.5 Phillipines 2.3 2.2 1.5 Myanmar 2.0 2.2 3.0 Laos 1.8 2.6 2.0 Cambodia 1.6 1.6 3.0 Source: Richard Silberglitt. Symposium on Integrated Foresight for Sustainable Economic Development and Eco-Resilience in ASEAN Countries. Thailand, 1– 2 October 2013

CROPS PRODUCTION, 2013 Crops Area 1000ha Production 1000 tons Export 1000 tons Mil.USD Rice 7,899.9 44,076.1 6,653(-17.3%) 3,730 (-27.3) Maize 1,157.5 5151.1 - - Coffee 635.2 1,322.1 1,308 (-15.5) 2,740 (-15.4) Rubber 974.1 934.5 1,023 (+6.5) 2,856 (-11.7) Tea (Fresh) 130.0 939.4 148 (-0.4%) Cashew 310.0 285.0 264 (+19.9) 1,654 (+12.6) Pepper 62.6 123.4 134 (+14.5) 899 (+13.2) Cassava 547.8 9,740.0 3,142 (-15.7) 1,102 (-18.5) Veget. 834.5 14,815.0 Fruit MARD, 2014 784.0 8,047.0 230 (+0.2) 1,095 (+32.0)

ANIMAL PRODUCTION 2012 • • • • • • • • Pigs: 26.25 mil (- 0.90%) Poultry: 314.75 mil. (+ 3.0%) Buffoloes: 2.56 mil. (- 2.6%) Beef cattle: 5.16 mil. (- 0.7%) Diary cattle: 186,300 (+11.6%) Meat Pricduction: 4,36 miltons (+1.5%), Milk: 425,400 tons (+10.5%) Animal Feed Eq.: 13.6 mil tons (+7.1)

Agriculture Export Value, Mil. USD Sectors Crops Prod. Forestry Fishery Others (Milk, Veget. oils, Sugar 2012 14,997 4,932 6,154 1,458 2013 13,139 5,805 6,167 Export Total Import Total Export Surplus 27,541 16,937 10,604 27,764 18,945 8,819 Source: MARD, 2013-2014

PROBLEMS FACING

CHALLENGES IN AGRICULTURE 1. Limited in Agricultural Land (World average: 1.20 ha/capita; Vietnam: 0.104ha or 8.7% and reducing) 2. Population Pressure. 90 mil. (1/11/2013). VN ranking 14th in population and 65th in natural area 3. Productivity Ceiling 4. Product Quality and Safety 5. High Production Cost 6. Relatively low competitiveness

GDP Growth in Agriculture Period 1995-2000 % 4.01 2001-2005 3.83 2006-2010 3.30 Source: GSO

Rice Productivity Growth, % 1990-95 1996-2000 2011-05 2006-2010 3.05 2.84 2.91 1.72 Source: GSO

Agricultural productivity in selected countries Unit: USD/person/year

Structure of Agricultural Land Area/Household in 2010 Source: CAP based on VLSS 2010

Export Price, USD/tons Rice 2011 514 2012 461 2013 410 (- 10.3% vs 2011) (- 11.1% vs 2012) Rubber 3,954 2,792 2,356 (- 29.4% vs 2011) (- 15.6% vs 2012) Coffee 2,047 2,122 1,500 (+ 3.7% vs 2011) (- 29.3% vs 2012) Source: Estimated from MARD reports, 2013

Investment Structure Nguồn : Ước lượng từ số liệu của TCTK 17

Number of Enterprises 2000-2008 Source: GSO

Value Chain of Tea: % of retail Price 7% 100% 90% 80% 5% 3% 3% 1% 2% 1% 1% Người trồng chè 70% Người chế biến trong nước 60% Thương gia trong nước 50% 40% 84% 92% Nhà xuất khẩu trong nước Giá trị ở nước ngoài 30% 20% 10% 0% Tesco Own Label Twinings leaf tea Source: 20 years of Science and Technology Development (MARD, 2006)

Value added per Agricultural labour (US$; Average for 2006-2008 ) IPSARD, 2012

Climate Change Impacts on Vietnam Most impacted countries: % Land Area 1m SLR 14 12 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 sh e a B a ng la d ai c ia m m b Ja u G a e li er ze to R ic o C ub a r B ta Q a P B a ha m a s 0 Ba ha m a Be ni n 10 au rit a Su nia ri n am G e uy an a G uia n Tu a nis ia 10 M 12 Most impacted countries: % Population 1m SLR According to WB, Vietnam is among 5 countries most impacted by Climate Change.

Vietnam: Climate Change 1. Sea level Raise: Flood, Saltwater intrusion Over the past fifty years, sea level has increased by about 20 cm (2cm/decade) 1. Temperature increase: Drought, Disease modification, cropping pattern change Over the past 50 years, (1958-2007), annual average temperatures increased by about 0.5 to 0.7oC (+0.10C/decade)

VN AGRICULTURE- SWOT ANALYSIS STRENGS - Food Security at national level - Good irrigation works - Top raking in export of Agricultural Products - Hard working farmers OPPORTUNITIES - Global integration (WTO, TPP…) - New land policy and Rural development - S-T development -Better condition for Small and medium enterprises development -- Strong commitment of Government for Agriculture development WEAKNESSES Quantitative production Low effectiveness Low relative competitiveness Low percentage of deep processing Quality and food safety concern CHALLENGES - Sector growth stagnation - Small scale production - Limitation and degradation of natural resources - Food insecurity at household level - Less enterprises investing in agriculture - Severe competition in international market - Climate change - Water resources conflict - Widening gap between the rich and the poor; urban and rural - Higher requirement of market for quality and safety

ORIENTATIONS

OVERALL TARGETS A. Sustainable Agriculture B. Prosperous Rural Areas C. Wealthy Farmers

NEW VISSION FOR AGRICULTURE Every Decade: - Production Growth increase by 20%, ensuring food security at national and household levels - Poverty reduced by 20% - GHG emission reduced by 20%

PRIORITIES • Food Security and safety • Natural disaster mitigation and Environment protection • Human Resources Development

- GDP Growth: OBJECTIVES • 2,6 – 3,0 %/year for 2011 – 2015 • 3,5 – 4,0 %/year for 2016 – 2020 – By 2020, farmers income increases by 2,5 times – Poverty at 12% with reduction by 2% per year – % of Villages meeting criteria of new rural model: 20% by 2015 and 50% by 2020 – Forest coverage increase up to 42-43% (2015) and 45% (2020). – Agricultural labour: < 46%

Orientations-Economic - Priority for development of high competitive sector and commodities – Higher investment for post harvest technology and processing – Value added improvement; – Rural industry development – Product quality and food safety – Farmers income improvement

VN Export Value VS Global, Mil. USD Sectors Fruit-Veget Flowers Rice Coffee Rubber Tea Cashew nut Pepper Total Global Import Value, 2010 97,900 25,000 16,818 7,548 7,488 6,370 1,719 1,761 1,361,853 VN Export Value, 2012 805 (0.82%) 60 (0.24%) 3,730 (22.2%) 3,740 (49.5%) 2,850 (38.1%) 227 (3.56%) 1,483 (86.3%) 802 (45.5%) 14,997 (1,10%)

Orientations-Social  Ensuring in sustainability in equity and access to landuse and other resources (credit, education, healthcare, …)  Rural infrastructure improvement and public service  Improvement food security at household level  Approaching to nutrition security  Policy for the poors  Labour’s skill training  Development rural enterprises

Orientations-Environment 1. Mitigation  Sustainable management of natural resources  Strengthening capacity in early warning of natural disasters and disease  Green growth and biodiversity conservation  GHG Emission reduction

2. Adaptation Orientations-Environment  Manure, residue, waste management;  Farming technology improvement (C, N control)  Varieties improvement: Flood, salt, heat, disease tolerance  Bioenergy (Bioethanol/ Diesel, Biochar)

MEASURES • Sector Production Restructuring with emphasis on high-value and deep processing • Science and Technology • Infrastruction improvement • International Integration • Administration Governance Improvement

SECTOR RESTRUCTURING TO 2020

CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING  Realizing relative advantages of market, products and agro-climatic condition;  Post harvest and deep processing improvement  S-T development with focusing on high-tech, new crop varieties development, VietGAP.  Development of trade mark and labelling  Market development

CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING (2) 1. Rice: Sustaining at area of 3.8 mil.ha (7.0 mil ha of planted area), Production of 45 mil. Tons of paddy. High atention to high quality, tolerant to abiotic and biotic stresses. 2. Maize: Meeting domestic demand of 8.5 mil tons (now: 4.8 mil. tons)

CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING (3) 1. Coffee: Sustaining at 0.5 mil.ha; replanting 150,000ha - Postharvest technology development - Deep processing and - Trade mark development 2. Rubber: 0.8 mil. ha; Intensive farming

CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING (4) 3. Cashewnut: 0.4 mil. ha; Varieties improvement; Intensive farming 4. Black pepper: 50,000 ha; Varieties improvement, Disease management 5. Tea: 140,000 ha, Varieties improvement; Merchanization in harvesting; Diversification of products

ANIMAL PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING  Growth at 7–8 %/year, the share in agricultural GDP: 21,5%)  Transfer from small and dissected scale to medium and industrial scale.  Moving animal farms from high density population to lower population density  Relative animal structure to relative increase poultry and diary cattle.  Animal feed crops toward replacing import

FISHERY PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING  Growth at 11%/years; the share in agricultural GDP: 335%  Increase the share of aquaculture and offshore catching  Intensification of key products  Quality and Safety meeting market standard  Structure improvement management and environment

FORESTRY PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING  Growth at 4%/years;  Forest coverage: 42-45%  Economic forest intensification  Transfer from fast growing forest tree to higher wood quality  Strengthening wood processing  Agro-forestry development  Improving income for farmers

MESSAGES • VN is and still will be Agriculture-based economy. • Key products are for export, so need to improve competitiveness • Higher profit from farming • Higher income for farmers • Harmonizing Agriculture-Rural and Farmers Development

VIETNAM-CIAT COLLABORATION THROUGH PICTURES

CIAT DG, Dr. Joachim Voss at VAAS

45th CIAT Anniversary in Hanoi

MARD Vice Minister, Dr. Bui Ba Bong at 45th CIAT Anniversary

45th CIAT Anniversary in Hanoi

Inauguration of CIAT Regional Office at AGI/VAAS

CIAT DG, Dr. Ruben Echeverria and CIAT Team at VAAS

Cassava Network Meeting in Hanoi

CIAT BOT in Hanoi

Dr. CIAT Invalid, Dr. Rod Lefroy on Field Day

Medal Awarding for Dr. Rod Lefroy at 45th CIAT Anniversary

CIAT DDG, Dr.Albin Hubscher and Reginal Director, Dr. Rod Lefroy at VAAS

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