Beta and Ratio Analysis of Stocks in Media and Entertainment Sector

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Published on February 15, 2014

Author: elnimit

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Beta Analysis and Ratio Analysis of Stocks in Media and Entertainment Sector - Balaji Telefilms, Warner Bros, TIPS Industries, Zee Telefilms, Walt Disney, Mukta Arts

Presented to Dr. Kumar Bijoy By – Mohit Bhalla 75234 Nimit Jain 75235 Rahul Nirwan 75245 Sahil Chaudhry 75251 Shaheed Sukhdev College of Business Studies University of Delhi 1

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BALAJI TELEFILMS LIMITED Industry Entertainment Founded 1994 Founder(s) Jeetendra Headquarters Mumbai, India Key people Ekta Kapoor and Shobha Kapoor Products Television programs, Motion pictures Subsidiaries Balaji Motion Pictures ALT Entertainment Website www.balajitelefilms.com 4

COMPANY BACKGROUND • Balaji Telefilms Private Limited incorporated on 10th November 1994, at Mumbai. Converted into a Public Limited Company on 29th February 2000 and Subsequently its name was changed to Balaji Telefilms Ltd on 19th April 2000. • Promoted by Ekta Kapoor, Shobha Kapoor, Jeetendra and Tushar Kapoor. • Largest television production house in South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Middle East. • Diversified itself into all the 4 screens by bringing in new teams for the motion pictures, internet and mobile space. 5

1.40 1.20 BETA CORRELATION ANALYSIS 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 201104 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 SENSEX BETA 0.99 1.02 0.48 0.77 0.48 0.68 1.14 1.11 1.01 SENSEX CORRELATION 0.39 0.46 0.20 0.43 0.27 0.43 0.51 0.43 0.44 NIFTY BETA 0.93 0.97 0.52 0.76 0.53 0.68 1.24 1.10 1.00 NIFTY CORRELATION 0.40 0.49 0.22 0.43 0.31 0.41 0.57 0.44 0.45 Combined SENSEX Correlation 0.41 Combined NIFTY correlation 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 Combined SENSEX Beta 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 Combined NIFTY Beta 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 6

3.0000 2.5000 2.0000 1.5000 1.0000 STDEV(BSE PRICES)/STDEV(SENSEX) STDEV(NSE PRICES)/STDEV(NIFTY) 0.5000 0.0000 7

COMPARISON WITH SENSEX 25000 20000 15000 SENSEX 10000 BSE Prices 5000 0 8

DEBT EQUITY RATIO 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Debt Equity Ratio 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 9

EPS, PRICE EARNING RATIO ANALYSIS 40 20 0 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 -20 Price Earning Ratio EPS -40 -60 -80 10

PROFIT AFTER TAX (₹ lakhs) 10000 8793 8000 7943 6000 5942 5541 4000 4130 pat(lakhs) 2667 2000 1519 0 -2000 1161 -340 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 11

NET WORTH V/S NET OWNED FUNDS ANALYSIS 450.00 401.78 396.86 406.95 388.88 400.00 364.85 350.00 304.16 300.00 250.00 250.47 213.13 200.00 Networth Net owned Funds 150.00 144.38 100.00 50.00 0.00 12

BOOK VALUE:MARKET VALUE 2.000 1.845 1.800 1.600 1.525 1.400 1.200 1.188 1.000 0.970 0.862 0.800 BV:MV 0.600 0.400 0.200 0.233 0.303 0.227 0.131 0.000 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 13

CURRENT RATIO 6 5.09 5 4.19 4 3.43 3 2 4.36 3.39 3.12 current ratio 2.22 1.9 1.83 1 0 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 14

REALIZATION PER HOUR (₹ LAKHS) 35 32.75 30 29 27.6 25 22.22 20 17.7 15 15 18.3 19.5 16.7 realization per hour (₹ lac) 10 5 0 15

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MUKTA ARTS LIMITED [1][2] Type Public Industry Entertainment Founded 28 October 1978 Ghai Headquarters Mumbai, India Key people Subhash Ghai (Chairman and Managing Director) Nadish Bhatia (VP Marketing, Sales and Syndication) Rahul Puri (Executive Director) [4] Swapna Jadhav (HR Manager) Website Mukta Arts [3] by Subhash 17

COMPANY BACKGROUND • Mukta Arts is an Indian film production company. It operates as an entertainment company that primarily produces motion pictures. • Founded by Mr. Subhash Ghai, one of India’s most successful film directors, the company has a library of over 35 hit films and has a brand that is globally recognized with quality and entertainment. • The company is also involved in the production, distribution, and exhibition of television serials and entertainment software; equipment hiring; and generation and distribution of contents for the entertainment industry. • In addition, the company is involved in the hire of equipment, such as generator vans, cameras with hawk lens, lights, grip equipment, remote control cranes, and location sync sound systems. • Further, it operates the Whistling Woods International Institute, an education, research, and training institute that imparts training in skills related to films, television, and media industry. 18

1.20 BETA CORRELATION ANALYSIS 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 201104 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 SENSEX BETA 0.91 0.80 0.50 0.68 1.01 0.46 0.56 0.93 0.55 SENSEX CORRELATION 0.35 0.40 0.21 0.33 0.44 0.32 0.28 0.39 0.23 NIFTY BETA 0.91 0.77 0.51 0.70 0.91 0.52 0.54 0.80 0.63 NIFTY CORRELATION 0.37 0.43 0.21 0.35 0.43 0.33 0.27 0.32 0.24 Combined SENSEX Beta 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 Combined NIFTY Beta 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 Combined SENSEX Correlation 0.32 Combined NIFTY Correlation 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 19 0.33

COMPARISON WITH SENSEX 25000 20000 15000 SENSEX 10000 BSE PRICES 5000 0 20

EPS PRICE EARNING RATIO ANALYSIS 60.000 50.000 50.767 40.000 36.157 30.302 30.000 EPS Price Earning Ratio 20.000 11.320 10.000 6.050 0.000 1.500 0.000 0.000 8.466 5.770 1.820 3.269 0.000 0.000 21

NET WORTH V/S NET OWNED FUNDS ANALYSIS 180.00 160.00 140.00 120.00 100.00 Networth 80.00 Net owned Funds 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 2003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-12 22

PROFIT AFTER TAX (₹ CRORES) 30 25.57 20 13.71 13.03 10 4.1 3.39 0 PAT(cr) 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 -5.64 -6.16 -10 -16.97 -20 -24.25 -30 23

CURRENT RATIO 4.00 3.54 3.50 3.02 3.00 3.03 2.72 2.50 2.48 2.07 2.00 1.50 2.22 current ratio 1.63 1.37 1.00 0.50 0.00 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 24

DEBT EQUITY RATIO 0.800 0.726 0.700 0.600 0.500 0.498 0.400 0.353 Debt Equity Ratio 0.300 0.223 0.200 0.100 0.000 0.099 0.002 0.121 0.090 0.002 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 25

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At a Glance:  Industry: Broadcasting & Cable  Founded: 1923  Country: United States  CEO: Robert Iger  Website: corporate.disney.go.com  Employees: 156,000  Sales: $40.96 B  Headquarters: Burbank, California 27

Beta -0.09707 Beta 03-04 Beta 04-05 Beta 05-06 Beta 06-07 Beta 07-08 Beta 08-09 Beta 09-10 Beta 10-11 Beta 11-12 Beta 12-13 0.26469 0.01041 -0.05120 0.04294 -0.30229 -0.09099 -0.17204 -0.02868 -0.07731 0.00724 Price Correlation Return Correlation Coefficient of determination - Price Coefficient of determination - Return 0.81572 -0.063391628 66.54% 0.40% 28

Beta 0.30000 0.20000 0.10000 0.00000 Beta -0.10000 -0.20000 -0.30000 -0.40000 29

DOW JONES 16000.00 14000.00 12000.00 10000.00 8000.00 DOW JONES 6000.00 4000.00 2000.00 0.00 2/3/03 2/3/04 2/3/05 2/3/06 2/3/07 2/3/08 2/3/09 2/3/10 2/3/11 2/3/12 Walt Disney 60 50 40 30 Walt Disney 20 10 30 0 2/3/03 2/3/04 2/3/05 2/3/06 2/3/07 2/3/08 2/3/09 2/3/10 2/3/11 2/3/12

60 Walt Disney 40 4 Feb, 2004: Comcast hostile 30 takeover bid 50 20 Walt Disney 10 0 2/3/03 2/3/04 2/3/05 2/3/06 2/3/07 2/3/08 2/3/09 2/3/10 2/3/11 2/3/12 The past several years were influenced by the horror of 9/11, a worldwide recession, two wars, a downturn in tourism, an unsolicited and below market offer by Comcast to buy your Company and an unusually intense publicity campaign against the Board and management by two dissident former directors. As we confronted this confluence of events we were resolute in keeping our focus on the operations of the Company and returning to the kind of stellar performance our shareholders expect of us. I am exceedingly proud of our management team and entire Cast, who not only kept the Company on course throughout this challenging period, but were able to deliver the phenomenal results it did as the turbulence began to subside. 31

60 Walt Disney Financial 50 Downturn 40 30 20 Walt Disney 10 0 2/3/03 2/3/04 2/3/05 2/3/06 2/3/07 At the same time, we faced a severe global economic downturn and an acceleration of secular challenges that affect several of our key businesses. Earnings per share for the year, excluding certain items affecting comparability between years (1), fell by 20% to $1.82 from the record $2.28 we reported in fiscal year 2008. Revenues were down 4% to $36.1 billion. -Page 3, 2009 Annual Report 2/3/08 2/3/09 2/3/10 2/3/11 2/3/12 32

60 Walt Disney Record Income 50 40 30 20 Walt Disney 10 0 2/3/03 2/3/04 2/3/05 2/3/06 2/3/07 2/3/08 For the second year in a row Disney achieved record net income, revenue, and earnings per share. In fiscal 2012, net income for our shareholders was a record $5.7 billion, an increase of 18% over last year, and revenue was a record $42.3 billion, up 3% from last year. Diluted earnings per share increased 24% to a record $3.13. -Page 3, 2012 Annual Report 2/3/09 2/3/10 2/3/11 2/3/12 Disney’s second-quarter sales gained 6.1 percent to $9.63 billion, beating projections of $9.56 billion. Theme-park operating profit leapt 53 percent to $222 million on a 7 percent increase in domestic attendance and higher average room rates worldwide. Revenue soared 10 percent at the namesake resorts to $2.9 billion, driven by gains in the U.S., Tokyo and Hong Kong. 33

DOW JONES 15000.00 10000.00 5000.00 0.00 2/3/03 2/3/04 2/3/05 2/3/06 2/3/07 2/3/08 2/3/09 2/3/10 2/3/11 2/3/12 DOW JONES Walt Disney 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2/3/03 Walt Disney 2/3/04 2/3/05 Beta 0.26469 0.01041 -0.05120 0.04294 -0.30229 -0.15467 -0.17204 -0.02868 -0.07731 0.00724 2/3/06 2/3/07 2/3/08 Year 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2/3/09 2/3/10 2/3/11 Correlation 0.94956 0.68205 0.14811 0.91533 0.26214 0.90163 0.96973 0.78755 0.82355 0.57429 2/3/12 34

DE Ratio 0.6 .548 0.5 0.4 .332 0.3 DE Ratio 0.2 0.1 35 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

DE Ratio 0.6 0.5 0.4 2003-2004: Debt is between $ 13.0513.48 B. Only Equity increased. $23.8 to 31 B; due to retained earnings from subsequent movies/shows. 0.3 DE Ratio 0.2 0.1 36 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

DE Ratio 0.6 Money borrowed for $7.5 billion acquisition of Pixar. 0.5 0.4 0.3 DE Ratio 0.2 0.1 37 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

DE Ratio 0.6 0.5 The company took advantage of the interest rate environment, locking in low fixed rates on over 80% of its net debt portfolio as of the end of fiscal year 2006. -Page 16, Annual Report 2006 0.4 0.3 DE Ratio 0.2 0.1 38 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0.6 DE Ratio 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 The decrease in interest expense was primarily due to lower effective interest rates and lower average debt balances, partially offset by expense related to the early redemption of a film financing borrowing. -Page 44, Annual Report 2010 0.1 39 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Share Price (NYSE) 60 50 40 30 Share… 20 10 0 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 4 3 2 1 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Book Value Market Value MV:BV 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 MV:BV 40 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 CR The Current Assets remained almost the same, however, due to having been locked in lower fixed rates recently, the current portion of liabilities was significantly lesser. 0.4 0.2 Hence, CL were lesser than in years before and after. 0 41

Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CR 0.958477509 0.844144144 0.965103599 0.937254902 0.99122807 1.00862069 1.332586786 1.109090909 1.140495868 1.0703125 Current Assets Current (in B$) Liabilities (in B$) (in B$) 8.31 8.67 9.37 11.1 8.85 9.17 9.56 10.2 11.3 11.4 11.7 11.6 11.9 8.93 12.2 11 13.8 12.1 13.7 12.8 42

EPS =Profit after Tax/OS Shares 3 Financial Crisis 2.5 2 Hostile Merger Bid 1.5 EPS 1 0.5 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 0 43

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 60 50 40 PE Ratio =MV/EPS 30 MV 20 10 EPS 0 44

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Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd Industry :Entertainment & Media Business Group Essel Group Sector Entertainment Incorporation Year 1982 Incorporation Date 25-Nov-1982 Chairman Subhash Chandra 46

      The company was launched on 15 December 1991 and was previously known as Zee Telefims until 2006. Zee currently operates over 15 different television channels, a cable company SitiCable, a record label Zee Records, a production company and has expanded operations abroad in the UK and U.S. as well as Africa and Asia. In 2002 Zee Entertainment Enterprises acquired a majority stake (51%) in ETC Networks. In 2006, they acquired Integrated Subscriber Management Services Limited and in November 2006, Zee acquired an interest (50%) in Taj television TEN Sports. In February 2010 Zee Entertainment Enterprises acquired an additional stake (95%) in TEN Sports. As Zee Telefilms, the company formed part of BSE Sensex from 20002005. 47

Beta Analysis with BSE Sensex Beta Analysis with NSE Nifty Beta 2002-2012 0.74 Beta 2002-2012 0.78 Beta 2003 1.18 Beta 2003 1.11 Beta 2004 0.75 Beta 2004 0.71 Beta 2005 0.91 Beta 2005 0.92 Beta 2006 0.68 Beta 2006 0.79 Beta 2007 1.01 Beta 2007 1.03 Beta 2008 0.65 Beta 2008 0.67 Beta 2009 0.68 Beta 2009 0.79 Beta 2010 0.84 Beta 2010 1.11 Beta 2011 0.51 Beta 2011 0.51 Beta 2012 0.57 Beta 2012 0.56 48

25000 250 Zee and Sensex Generally consistent movement with the Index as documented by Beta of 0.78 20000 200 15000 150 10000 100 5000 Issue of Bonus Shares 1:1 and ESPS 50 11/11/10 0 0 49

50 Key Figures Total Year Debt Net Worth No. of Shares Net Owned Funds D/E Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio PE Ratio Market Price Book Value EPS 2003 404.36 3906.68 41 2996.80 0.10 1.53 1.20 27.29 62.50 94.73 2.29 2004 268.01 2046.56 41 2904.70 0.13 1.95 1.50 46.76 134.20 49.63 2.87 2005 526.71 2136.75 41 2944.23 0.25 3.10 2.66 35.34 138.90 51.81 3.93 2006 484.21 1544.94 41 2513.95 0.31 2.20 1.85 142.78 238.45 37.45 1.67 2007 254.05 1935.17 43 2332.51 0.13 1.73 1.50 65.44 250.65 44.63 3.83 2008 204.26 2128.25 43 2189.22 0.10 2.09 1.60 35.93 244.65 49.08 6.81 2009 170.95 2343.00 43 2029.15 0.07 2.84 1.75 14.88 106.25 53.99 7.14 2010 118.90 2819.83 43 2663.46 0.04 2.93 1.81 20.85 268.60 64.9712.88 2011 1.10 2903.60 98 2314.57 0.00 3.71 2.03 21.00 123.70 29.69 5.89 2012 1.70 2995.10 96 4311.04 0.00 4.14 2.25 24.77 126.55 31.23 5.11

D/E Ratio 0.35 Acquisition of Controlling Stake in ETC Network 0.31 0.30 0.25 0.25 Repayment of Loans and restructuring of subsidiaries 0.20 0.15 Systematic repayment of loans 0.13 0.13 0.10 D/E Ratio 0.10 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.05 0.00 0.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.00 2011 2012 51

4.50 Big Boom in advertising revenue as a result of highest TRPs 4.00 Current Ratio and Liquid Ratio Purchase of High Price Programming Rights 52 4.14 3.71 3.50 Drastic fall in advertising rates as a result of fall in TRP 3.10 3.00 2.93 2.66 2.50 2.20 2.00 1.50 2.84 1.95 1.53 1.85 1.50 2.25 2.09 1.73 1.50 1.60 2.03 1.75 1.81 1.20 1.00 0.50 0.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

100.00 14 94.25 90.00 12 80.00 70.00 Heavy capital expenditure to acquire ETC Networks 10 70.01 60.00 8 50.26 50.00 EPS 6 40.00 37.81 36.65 30.00 PE Ratio 4 26.04 28.03 22.14 20.00 22.21 15.63 2 10.00 0.00 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 53

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Beta Analysis with BSE Sensex Beta Analysis with NSE Nifty Beta 0.88 Beta 0.89 Beta 2003 Beta 2004 Beta 2005 Beta 2006 Beta 2007 Beta 2008 Beta 2009 Beta 2010 Beta 2011 Beta 2012 1.04 0.88 1.10 0.93 0.84 0.94 0.68 1.22 0.97 0.24 Beta 2003 Beta 2004 Beta 2005 Beta 2006 Beta 2007 Beta 2008 Beta 2009 Beta 2010 Beta 2011 Beta 2012 1.06 0.86 1.08 1.02 0.79 0.94 0.68 1.22 0.96 0.27 55

1.40 Beta Movement 1.20 1.00 0.80 Yearly Sensex Beta Yearly Nifty Beta 0.60 Combined Sensex Beta Combined Nifty Beta 0.40 0.20 0.00 Beta Beta Beta Beta Beta Beta Beta Beta Beta Beta 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 56

Tips Industries Ltd. 25000 140 120 20000 100 15000 10000 80 60 40 5000 20 0 0 57

Key Figures Book Value Year Net Worth (crores) No. of Shares (Crores) (1) Market Value MV:BV 58 Total Debt Beta Debt:Beta Ratio 2012 84.58 1 84.58 55.1 0.651454 39.97 1.03565 38.59429056 2011 79.48 1 79.48 26.53 0.333795 53.82 0.88458 60.8422507 2010 85.22 1 85.22 41.77 0.490143 54.67 1.09950 49.72275673 2009 79.27 1 79.27 25.85 0.326101 56.74 0.92604 61.27165943 2008 70.05 1 70.05 57.32 0.818273 11.99 0.84241 14.23292171 2007 43.48 1 43.48 28.41 0.653404 29 0.94150 30.80200898 2006 32.6 1 32.6 31.38 0.962577 10.93 0.67694 16.14628801 2005 63.5 1 63.5 30.84 0.485669 8.05 1.21858 6.606068407 2004 71.41 1 71.41 28.19 0.394763 8.82 0.96953 9.097207704 2003 64.84 1 64.84 29.54 0.455583 7.74 0.23705 32.65183802

Debt Equity 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Debt Equity 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 59

90 80 70 60 50 Book Value (1) 40 Market Value 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 60

Thank You! 61

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