Berry Climate Change Projections And Implication

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Information about Berry Climate Change Projections And Implication

Published on November 6, 2008

Author: greatermary

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Presentation at "The River, the Bay and the Strait" public forum, 5 October, 2008, Hervey Bay

Climate Change Projections and Implication The River, the Bay and the Strait Forum

Up Front This presentation is not about the science of climate change. Assuming that the climate is already changing and it will continue to do so even with mitigation. Projection not fact. Still requires development of peer review process and adoption into policy.

This presentation is not about the science of climate change.

Assuming that the climate is already changing and it will continue to do so even with mitigation.

Projection not fact. Still requires development of peer review process and adoption into policy.

Problems Differing projections depending on model used. State Government guaranteeing flow rates and yield based on CSIRO projections. 78% of catchment area does not correspond to 78% of flow. Removing 22% of a catchment area will have an impact, especially in addition to reduced rainfall.

Differing projections depending on model used.

State Government guaranteeing flow rates and yield based on CSIRO projections.

78% of catchment area does not correspond to 78% of flow.

Removing 22% of a catchment area will have an impact, especially in addition to reduced rainfall.

SimCLIM Family Tree VANDACLIM ( island version ) Source: CLIMsystems BDCLIM ( Bangladesh ) VANDACLIM ( fictitious country ) OZCLIM (CSIRO) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 CLIMPACTS CHAMP (New Zealand ) CANCLIM ( Canada ) SimCLIM SriLankaCLIM HOTSPOTS (NZ) TopoCLIM Hard-wired Open-system DryCLIM COMMERCIAL VERSION

Climate Modelling Where computer programs make projections about future climate using: 1. Global circulation models (GCMs), 2. Emission scenarios, and 3. Climatic sensitivity.

Where computer programs make projections about future climate using:

1. Global circulation models (GCMs),

2. Emission scenarios, and

3. Climatic sensitivity.

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) Physically based, complex, 3D models. Take into account as many factors as possible that could influence climate and hence simulate the global climate system. Climate factors include: wind patterns and ocean currents, cyclones, El Nino, ice-sheets, clouds, ecosystems etc. Source: CLIMsystems

Physically based, complex, 3D models.

Take into account as many factors as possible that could influence climate and hence simulate the global climate system.

Climate factors include: wind patterns and ocean currents, cyclones, El Nino, ice-sheets, clouds, ecosystems etc.

Source: CLIMsystems

Emission Scenarios Source: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm

2008 2020 2050 2100 Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny

Annual Average Change in Precipitation (mm): 1374.0 – 1550.6 844.3 – 1020.9 844.3 – 1020.9 844.3 – 1020.9 2100 1727.2 – 1903.8 1197.5 – 1374.0 1020.9 – 1197.5 1197.5 – 1374.0 2020 1550.6 - 1727.2 1727.2 – 1903.8 Maleny 1020.9 – 1197.5 1197.5 – 1374.0 Kenilworth 1020.9 – 1197.5 1020.9 – 1197.5 Imbil 1020.9 – 1197.5 1197.5 – 1374.0 Kandanga 2050 2008

Annual Average Change in Precipitation (mm/year): 535 702 Monto 550 725 Gayndah 612 790 Kingaroy 955 1185 Gympie 920 1148 Maryborough 840 1060 Bundaberg 2100 1990

2008 2020 2050 2100 Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny

Annual Average Maximum Temperature Change ( 0 C) : 29.1 – 30.4 29.1 – 30.4 31.7 – 33.0 31.7 – 33.0 2100 22.7 – 24.0 24.0 – 25.3 25.3 – 26.6 25.3 – 26.6 2020 24.0 – 25.3 21.5 – 22.7 Maleny 25.3 – 26.6 22.7 – 24.0 Kenilworth 26.6 – 27.9 24.0 – 25.3 Imbil 26.6 – 27.9 24.0 – 25.3 Kandanga 2050 2008

Annual Average Maximum Temperature Change: 30.71 - 34.66 27.33 Monto 30.98 - 34.95 27.59 Gayndah 28.21 - 32.19 24.82 Kingaroy 28.82 - 32.38 25.78 Gympie 29.49 - 32.99 26.50 Maryborough 29.71 - 33.31 26.63 Bundaberg 2100 1990

Number of days over 35 0 C /year Kandanga, Cooroy, Kenilworth and Maleny – no temperature data recorded. 72 2100 45 20 12 7 Imbil 2075 2050 2030 2008

Number of days over 40 0 C / year Kandanga, Cooroy, Kenilworth and Maleny – no temperature data recorded. 14 2100 6 1.7 0.7 0.1 Imbil 2075 2050 2030 2008

Number of days over 35 0 C / year 164 118 62 28 19 Monto 193 140 77 33 22 Gayndah 108 65 24 7 4 Kingaroy 91 114 123 2100 59 30 14 10 Gympie 66 37 5 3 Maryborough 59 10 2 1 Bundaberg 2075 2050 2020 1990

Conclusions Impossible to guarantee water above or below dam. Different software packages, models and scenarios can give different projections. Higher temperatures mean higher levels of evaporation and evapotranspiration. Longer growing seasons for aquatic weeds. Higher demand for water.

Impossible to guarantee water above or below dam.

Different software packages, models and scenarios can give different projections.

Higher temperatures mean higher levels of evaporation and evapotranspiration.

Longer growing seasons for aquatic weeds.

Higher demand for water.

Future Research Increase accuracy of rainfall projections to local areas i.e. models & data used. Flow rate projections for the Mary River to be determined.

Increase accuracy of rainfall projections to local areas i.e. models & data used.

Flow rate projections for the Mary River to be determined.

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