Published on February 26, 2014
January 2014 Inflation Rate & 2013 Economic Growth February 26, 2014 IT-VET, Belize City
Outline • Presentation of Results –January 2014 Inflation Rate –2013 Economic Growth • Questions and Comments
January 2014 Inflation Rate • There was a continuation of the upward trend in prices that started around August 2013. • Consumer prices increased by an average of 1.8 percent between January 2013 and January 2014. • Food and transportation prices were the main contributors, recording hikes of 4% and 5%, respectively.
Introduction • The Statistical Institute of Belize initiated the estimation of quarterly GDP (QGDP) growth rates in 2004, and began publication in 2006. • Main purpose was to provide timely information to government, businesses and the general public on the growth performance of the economy.
• Growth estimates are based on production data and economic activity indicators compiled for ten sectors of the economy. – Examples • • • • • Agriculture – sugarcane, banana, citrus Construction – building cement imports Manufacturing - sugar, citrus concentrate, beer, flour, Government – wages and salaries Wholesale & retail distribution – imports & sales tax
• The quarterly rate of growth is calculated by dividing production for one quarter by production for the same quarter of the previous year. • Example 120 /100 = 20% • A weighted average of the growth rates is used to obtain an overall rate of growth
• Considering the QGDP estimates are based on only some of the goods and services included in the generation of the annual GDP estimates, the two procedures yield different results. • The difference is reconciled through a benchmarking process
WHAT IS THE GROWTH NEWS FOR 2013?
Fishing • With recovery of approximately 28 percent, Fishing was the single largest contributor to 2013 growth performance. • Reopening of Belize Aquaculture Limited boosted farm shrimp production, causing exports receipts of that commodity to increase by 81 percent to $52 million.
Construction • Second consecutive year of double-digit growth • Significant boost in public infrastructure projects
Services • Strongest performers were: – Wholesale and Retail distribution – Government – Hotel and Restaurant Services • Growth of between 4 percent and 6 percent
Manufacturing and Mining • Manufacturing fell by 12 percent, largely because of falls in sugar and citrus concentrate production; only increase was in soft drinks. • Crude oil production fell for a fourth consecutive year to 2,200 barrels per day due to depletion of reserves
Agriculture • Down by 13 percent. • Modest decrease in banana output due to inclement weather • Significant falls in sugarcane and citrus harvest – Sugarcane: partly due to delayed start of current crop season – Citrus: Effects of bumper crop in 2012 and Citrus Greening Disease
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