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ATC PTIT Refining Trends for the future a 2020 Sce

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Information about ATC PTIT Refining Trends for the future a 2020 Sce
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Published on February 29, 2008

Author: Goldye

Source: authorstream.com

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Refining Trends for the Future: a 2020 Scenario:  Refining Trends for the Future: a 2020 Scenario Alain Convers - Axens Agenda:  Global demand for refined products Diversification of supply Refining economic environment Future refining investments Agenda Global Demand for Refined Products :  Million Barrels per Day Others + LPG 21.4 RFO 11.0 Gas oil + Diesel 27.4 Kerosene 8.3 Gasoline 25.4 Naphtha 6.5 Annual Average Growth Rate (AAGR): 1.7% Global Demand for Refined Products 2005 (%) Projected Refined Products Demand 2005 - 2020:  Projected Refined Products Demand 2005 - 2020 2005 Demand (population) Geographical Breakdown 2005-2020 Incremental Demand by Region Mbpd Source: Hart (57.7%) (5.1%) (14.0%) (3.3%) (5.2%) (6.1%) (8.6%) Global Demand for Refined Products in 2020:  Continuous change in product mix Global Demand for Refined Products in 2020 AAGR = Annual Average Growth Rate Trend in Global Demand for Refined Products :  Trend in Global Demand for Refined Products 1990 66 Mbpd 2020 105 Mbpd *Middle Distillate = On-road + Off-road diesel + Jet/kerosene LPG Others Fuel Oil Middle Distillate* Gasoline Naphtha 8% 12% 18% 31% 4% 62% 27% Trends in Ratio of Gasoline to On-road Diesel :  4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 North America China Western Europe (EU-15) India 1.0 Volume Ratio Gasoline to On-Road Diesel World Estimate Trends in Ratio of Gasoline to On-road Diesel World Diesel Demand:  World Diesel Demand On-road diesel Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs)* Freight trucks Buses Off-road diesel Marine Railways Heating Oil +0.7 %/y +3.0 %/y *LDVs=Passenger Cars (PCs)+Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs)+ Light Trucks (LTs) 44% 35% Worldwide On-Road Diesel Consumption:  Worldwide On-Road Diesel Consumption 2005: 12.6 Mbpd 2020: 19.8 Mbpd Source: World Business Council for Sustainable Development + 57% EU-15 Diesel Demand:  EU-15 Diesel Demand -2.0 %/y 2.3 %/y 39% 24% On-road diesel Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs)* Freight trucks Buses Off-road diesel Marine Railways Heating Oil EU-15 On-Road Diesel Consumption:  EU-15 On-Road Diesel Consumption 2005: 3.2 Mbpd 2020: 4.6 Mbpd Source: World Business Council for Sustainable Development + 45% Imbalances & Major Flows 2005:  23 North America Europe Central & South America Asia - Pacific -25 CIS 25 4 18 6 6 4 4 27 12 -10 -28 -4 6 3 -5 6 35 -10 7 20 Africa & Middle East -8 Imbalances & Major Flows 2005 Gasoline Jet/Kerosene Diesel Fuel Oil All figures in Mt/y Imbalances & Major Flows 2015:  Imbalances & Major Flows 2015 50 North America Europe Asia - Pacific -45 CIS -60 30 40 Africa & Middle East -45 Gasoline Diesel All figures in Mt/y -12 40-45 15 Jet/Kerosene Agenda:  Global refined products demand Diversification of supply Refining economic environment Future refining investments Conclusions Agenda Diversification of the Supply:  Diversification of the Supply To cope with strong demand, diversification of supply: Increasing use of heavier conventional crudes in the refineries (declining quality of supply) Use of non-conventional crudes for syncrude oil production (SCO) - up to 6 Mbpd by 2020 (6% of world demand) and about 25 years proven reserves: Extra-heavy crude from ORENOC Bituminous sands from ATHABASCA Crude Oil Quality World Trends Excluding Condensate:  Crude Oil Quality World Trends Excluding Condensate Source: Axens 2005 32.2 32.7 33.2 33.7 34.2 34.7 2000 2004 2010 2020 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 API Gravity Sulfur, wt.% Gravity Sulfur Agenda:  Agenda Global demand for refined products Diversification of supply Refining economic environment Future refining investments Conclusions Refining Industry Conditions:  Refining Industry Conditions Combination of: low level of investment during the last decade (quality attainment only) strong demand (China, India) Lead to: High utilization rates of refineries (saturation of refining capacity) Supply shortage (increase in light product prices) New economic conditions Refining Industry Conditions: New Economic Conditions:  Refining Industry Conditions: New Economic Conditions Increasing price differential between HSFO and gas oil Beginning of 2004; 150 $/t Today around 350 $/t  attractive investment conditions to convert residues into more valuable lighter products North Western Europe (NWE):  North Western Europe (NWE) Brent Dated Prices, $/bbl 0 10 20 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 NWE Prices, $/ton 2003 2005 Light-heavy Crude Differential:  Light-heavy Crude Differential Widening price differential between light-sweet and heavy-sour crudes Declining demand for HSFO Lack of heavy-sour crude processing capacity Widening price differentials have significantly contributed to increasing refining margins for refineries with heavy upgrading capacity NWE Margins vs. Crude Differential:  NWE Margins vs. Crude Differential Brent – Ural Crude Price Differential, $/bbl 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 0 Cracking - Hydroskimming Operating Margins, $/bbl 2004, 2005 2003 2001, 2002 Brent Ural Refining Industry Conditions: New Economic Conditions:  Refining Industry Conditions: New Economic Conditions As crude prices increase, the light-heavy price spread increases Margins are higher with More complex refineries Heavier crude Treating very heavy crude requires more complex refineries, i.e., conversion investment Agenda:  Agenda Global demand for refined products Diversification of supply Refining economic environment Future refining investments Conclusions Future Refining Investment :  New refining capacity will be built mainly in product growth areas and oil producing countries, with incremental creep capacity expansion and investment in regulation in all locations Completion before 2010 14 new refinery projects for 2.8 Mbpd capacity 12 important extension projects for 1.2 Mbpd additional capacity Residue upgrading - an important challenge Projected conversion capacity expansions are estimated to total than 12 Mbpd through 2020 Future Refining Investment Conversion Technologies :  Conversion Technologies Gasoline Kerosene Gas Oil HFO Syngas LPG VGO Atmospheric Distillation Vacuum Distillation Vacuum Residue Vacuum Gas Oil Fuel Gas Atmospheric Residue Coke Power H2/Steam Projected Conversion Capacity Expansion 2005 - 2020:  Projected Conversion Capacity Expansion 2005 - 2020 2005 Capacity Geographical Breakdown 2005-2020 Additional Capacity by Region Mbpd Source: Hart Capacity Expansions 2005-2020 Geographical Breakdown:  Capacity Expansions 2005-2020 Geographical Breakdown Hydrocracking: + 4 Mbpd (+1.1 AR/VRDS) (80 – 90 units) Catalytic Cracking: + 5 Mbpd (60 – 75 units) Coking : +3.3 Mbpd (55 – 70 units) Source: Axens & Hart WRFS, 2005 Edition Conclusions 1/2:  Conclusions 1/2 Steadily increasing product demand: 1.6 - 1.7%/y Continuous change in product mix in favor of light transportation fuels Declining crude quality (API, sulfur) Increasingly stringent fuel specifications Need 12.3 Mbpd additional conversion capacity by 2020 Conclusions 2/2:  Attractive operational margins Tight supply High sulfur HSFO/GO Differential around 300 $/t and expected to remain there for the foreseeable future Widening price differential between LS and HS crude The time is right to invest in conversion technologies Conclusions 2/2

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